Low-Grade Conflict
IRE206
Week 9

From Terrorism to Peace
Bi-lateral negotiations after Madrid
Track 2 talks in Oslo
Oslo Accords signed in Washington D.C.
PLO and UN Res. 242.
Israel and UN Res. 242.
Peace framework for 5 years.

From Peace to Terrorism
1995 Assassination of Israeli Prime Minister
Hamas and Hezbollah
1997 Hebron (Oslo II)
1998 Wye River Memorandum
2000 Camp David
2001 Intifada
2002-2007 High and Low terror acts

Status Quo
No large scale terror acts
Low-grade acts of terror and response
No large scale Israeli military operations
2006 vs. 2014 kidnappings
Civilian attacks (stabbing, vehicular terrorism)
“Trim the grass” strategy
Domestically popular, inexpensive, timely.

Status Quo
Fatah (party) weak and ineffective.
Palestinian Authority corrupt and aged.
Lack of new ‘blood’
GOI threat assessments
Militarily and politically possible
PMO inter-party and domestic political dominance
Likud better at “game” than Centre-left

Conclusions
Oslo Peace Process “is dead”
Terrorism is REAL and Hamas and Islamic Jihad (Gaza Stripe) unwilling to negotiate for peace.
PA (Abbas) unwilling to stop funding terror families
GOI (Netanyahu) unwilling to make concessions out of domestic political fears and security
considerations.
Ultra-Orthodox parties
Gaza 2019 vs. Gaza pre-2005