Jakub Jusko 03/29/2020 The fate of Mečiar http://hnonline.sk/sites/default/files/attachments/images/490/31763490-meciar_s.jpg http://i.sme.sk/cdata/5/63/6354885/luxc-r416.jpg http://img.ct24.cz/cache/616x411/article/38/3791/379082.jpg?1343141200 V. Mečiar S pánom Bohom idem od vás.mp4 Party system in 1998 —Huge polarization of the party system — —Parties divided into two blocs: — —Governmental parties (HZDS, SNS, ZRS) — —Opposition (centre right SDK, leftist SDL, Hungarian SMK, new, leftist and populist SOP) — — Elections 1998 Party Votes (in %) Seats HZDS 27 43 SDK 26,33 42 SDL 14,66 23 SMK 9,12 15 SNS 9,07 14 SOP 8,01 13 ZRS 1,3 0 Others 5,81 0 150 Governments after 1998 Years Prime Minister Members Ideology 1998 – 2002 Dzurinda I SDK, SDL, SMK, SOP (4) From left to right 2002 – 2006 Dzurinda II SDKU, SMK, KDH, ANO (4) Right 2006 – 2010 Fico I SMER, SNS, HZDS (3) From left to right 2010 – 2012 Radičová SDKU, SaS, Most, KDH (4) Right 2012 – 2016 Fico II SMER (1) Left 2016 - 2020 Fico III / Pellegrini SMER, SNS, Most (3) From left to right Government 1998 - 2002 — — —Prime Minister – Mikuláš Dzurinda — —High number of members – 4 vs. 10 — —Main task – to restore the country after Mečiar’s era: — —Return to liberal democratic regime —Retrieval of the Slovakia’s international image —Economic reforms, salvation of banks — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://eaq.sk/files/imagecache/story_display/files/dz%20tri.jpg Low stability of governmental parties —Affected all parties except the Hungarians (SMK) — —Centre-right alliance SDK: —2000 – Dzurinda establishes Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU) —Only Christian Democrats (KDH) survived — —Collapse of the left (SDL, SOP): —Negatively affected by the unpopular economic policy —SOP leader Schuster elected for president in 1999 —SDL leading figure Fico left his party and establishes a new one — — — — — — — — — — — — — Opposition —Maintained several changes — —HZDS: —Hard adaptation on oppositional role —Non-constructive opposition work —Stabilization after return of Mečiar to active politics — —SNS: —Post-electoral destabilization —Division into 2 parties and interim marginalization — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://ipolitika.sk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hzds_logo1.jpg http://www.novespravy.sk/public/media/logo_sns.gif Opposition – new parties —Smer (Direction), 1999: —Created by ex-SDL official Robert Fico —Refused the left-right division —Project of the third way —Strong populism, criticism of both eras – Mečiar’s and Dzurinda’s — —Alliance of the New Citizen (ANO), 2001: —Created by media magnate Pavol Rusko —The Slovak „Berlusconi“ —Populism, centre-right liberal values — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://www.supernavigator.sk/logos/12017/12017232.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/thumb/5/50/SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg/539 px-SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg.png Perception of Prime Ministers (2001) — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Both positive Mečiar + Dzurinda - Mečiar - Dzurinda + Both negative Do not know (at least one) HZDS 5,2 88,1 0 2,2 4,5 SNS 1 57,3 6,3 20,8 14,6 KSS 0 44,9 6,1 42,9 6,1 SDKU 4 3 81,2 3 8,9 SMK 1,4 2,1 59,3 20,7 16,4 KDH 7,4 5,6 29,6 29,6 27,8 ANO 0 15,3 20,8 55,6 8,3 SMER 1,9 24,1 17,5 42,9 26,5 non-voters 1,2 14,7 13,5 44,1 13,7 undecided 1,5 14,2 16,1 38,7 29,5 The „map“ of the party system in 2002 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://ipolitika.sk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hzds_logo1.jpg http://www.novespravy.sk/public/media/logo_sns.gif http://madari.sk/wp-content/themes/madari/functions/timthumb.php?src=http://madari.sk/files/2012/05 /mkp-logo-1024x478.jpg&w=400&h=250 http://www.sdku-ds.sk/data/Download/SDKU-DS_logo.jpg http://www.demagog.sk/data/diskusia/s/136136588257.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/thumb/5/50/SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg/539 px-SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg.png http://www.supernavigator.sk/logos/12017/12017232.jpg Election 2002 – the crisis of the left Party Votes (in %) Seats HZDS 19,5 36 SDKU 15,09 28 SMER 13,46 25 SMK 11,16 20 KDH 8,25 15 ANO 8,01 15 KSS 6,32 11 SDL + SOP 1,36 0 Others 7,11 0 150 Government 2002 - 2006 —Dzurinda remained Prime Minister — —No leftist parties — —End of the integration process – EU, NATO (2004) — —Unpopular economic reforms – taxes, healthcare, social system — —Since 2003 a minority government — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://eaq.sk/files/imagecache/story_display/files/dz%20tri.jpg Restoration of the left (SMER) —Shift from populism to social democracy (SMER-SD) — —2003-2004 – SMER absorbed smaller leftist parties — —Strong criticism of governmental reforms — —Huge rise of popularity Into EU! But not with bare asses… People deserve securities Výsledek obrázku pro ludia si zasluzia istoty 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Gender Men 54.9 56.5 49.3 35.8 39.3 41.3 Women 45.1 43.5 50.7 64.2 60.7 58.7 Age 18 - 24 19.9 10 7.3 2.3 4.6 2.8 25 - 34 25.7 24.3 20.3 8.4 8.2 8.8 35 - 44 28.8 15 16.5 9.9 6.8 13.4 45 - 59 19.9 32.1 32 32.4 35.1 30 60 and more 5.8 18.6 23.8 47 45.3 45 Education Primary 17.3 12.5 18.6 16.1 17.3 16.6 Lower secondary 39.1 34 35.3 35.4 31.1 30.6 Higher secondary 33.8 43.1 36.1 37.2 41.4 41.6 University 9.8 10.4 10 11.2 10.1 11.2 Left-Right Left 31.1 42.9 46.6 62.5 64.6 58.4 Centre 54.4 47.9 44.2 32.6 30.5 30.7 Right 14.4 9.3 9.2 4.9 4.9 10.9 Income Low 34.5 31.6 17.8 19.9 35.6 Middle 59.5 59.2 61.7 47.1 50 High 5.9 9.2 20.4 33 14.4 Election 2006 – the new leader Party Votes (in %) Seats Smer 29,14 50 SDKÚ 18,35 31 SNS 11,73 20 SMK 11,68 20 HZDS 8,79 15 KDH 8,31 14 ANO 1,42 0 Others 12 0 150 Government 2006 —Prime Minister – Robert Fico — —Return to ideological heterogeneity: —Smer - social democrats —SNS - radical right —HZDS – vague — —Analogies with Mečiar’s government 1994-98: —Total dominance of the strongest party —Numerous scandals, problematic style of politics —Prime Minister as a dividing line in the party system — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://img.cas.sk/img/16/article/629695/fico/robert.jpg Changes in the centre-right after 2006 —Most-Híd (The Bridge): —Created by former leader of SMK Béla Bugár —Project of Hungarian and Slovak cooperation —Replaced the position of SMK — —Freedom and Solidarity (SaS): —Created by enterpreneur Richard Sulík —Liberal, libertarian and postmaterialistic — —Together with SDKU and KDH these parties declared not to cooperate with SMER after elections 2010 à sign of polarization — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://www.pozorblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/hid-most.png http://ipravda.sk/res/2010/04/12/thumbs/122312-sloboda-a-solidarita-logo-superHP.jpg For future generations! The „map“ of the party system in 2010 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://ipolitika.sk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hzds_logo1.jpg http://www.novespravy.sk/public/media/logo_sns.gif http://www.sdku-ds.sk/data/Download/SDKU-DS_logo.jpg http://www.demagog.sk/data/diskusia/s/136136588257.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/thumb/5/50/SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg/539 px-SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg.png http://madari.sk/wp-content/themes/madari/functions/timthumb.php?src=http://madari.sk/files/2012/05 /mkp-logo-1024x478.jpg&w=400&h=250 http://ipravda.sk/res/2010/04/12/thumbs/122312-sloboda-a-solidarita-logo-superHP.jpg The „map“ of the party system in 2010 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://ipolitika.sk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hzds_logo1.jpg http://www.novespravy.sk/public/media/logo_sns.gif http://www.sdku-ds.sk/data/Download/SDKU-DS_logo.jpg http://www.demagog.sk/data/diskusia/s/136136588257.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/thumb/5/50/SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg/539 px-SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg.png http://ipravda.sk/res/2010/04/12/thumbs/122312-sloboda-a-solidarita-logo-superHP.jpg http://www.pozorblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/hid-most.png Election 2010 – HZDS is out Party Votes (in %) Seats Smer 34,79 62 SDKÚ 15,42 28 SaS 12,14 22 KDH 8,52 15 Most-Híd 8,12 14 SNS 5,07 9 HZDS 4,32 0 Others 11,62 0 150 Výsledek obrázku pro mečiar baranica Government 2010-2012 —Prime Minister – Iveta Radičová —Members – SDKU, SaS, Most-Hid, KDH — —2011 – the EFSF vote: —SaS refusal to vote for the rescue mechanism —EFSF vote joined with the vote of confidence à end of the government — —à Collapse of the right — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Iveta+Radicova+New+Slovak+Prime+Minister+Visits+s4Sob6mp22Fl.jpg Before elections 2012 —Frustration of centre-right voters — —The Gorilla case: —Revealed strong corrupt ties between politics and financial groups —Biggest negative impact on SDKU — —Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OLaNO): —Populist „party“, four members —Forum for independent candidates —Vast criticism of existing parties and corruption — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://obycajniludia.sk/data/files/34_olano_logo-jpg.jpg http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/files/images/baby-gorilla.jpg Election 2012 – A one man show Party Votes (in %) Seats Smer 44,41 83 KDH 8,82 16 OLaNO 8,55 16 Most-Híd 6,89 13 SDKU 6,09 11 SaS 5,88 11 Others 19,36 0 150 Government 2012-16 —A one party government — —Prime Minister – Robert Fico — —No coalition partners à full responsibility — —Social democracy with far right appeals — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — http://img.cas.sk/img/16/article/629695/fico/robert.jpg Výsledek obrázku pro chranime slovensko Not enough chaos? (2015) —Shift from populism to social democracy (SMER-SD) — —2003-2004 – SMER absorbed smaller leftist parties — —Strong criticism of governmental reforms — —Huge rise of popularity Election 2016 – Earthquake Party Votes (in %) Votes vs. 2012 Seats Smer 28,3 - 16,1 49 SaS 12,1 + 6,2 21 OLaNO 11,0 + 2,5 19 SNS 8,6 + 4,1 15 LSNS 8,0 + 6,5 14 We are Family 6,6 11 Most-Hid 6,5 - 0,4 11 #SIET 5,6 10 150 Election 2016 — —Huge decline of SMER — —Disappointment for #SIET — —New protest parties in parliament: —We are Family – populist —LSNS – extreme right — —New government – SMER, nationalist SNS and Hungarian Most — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Výsledek obrázku pro boris kollar 1488-b Governments after 1998 Years Prime Minister Members Ideology 1998 – 2002 Dzurinda I SDK, SDL, SMK, SOP (4) From left to right 2002 – 2006 Dzurinda II SDKU, SMK, KDH, ANO (4) Right 2006 – 2010 Fico I SMER, SNS, HZDS (3) From left to right 2010 – 2012 Radičová SDKU, SaS, Most, KDH (4) Right 2012 – 2016 Fico II SMER (1) Left 2016 - 2020 Fico III / Pellegrini SMER, SNS, Most (3) From left to right Governments after 1998 Years Prime Minister Consequences 1998 – 2002 Dzurinda I Collapse of the left 2002 – 2006 Dzurinda II Restoration of the left 2006 – 2010 Fico I New dividing line in party system 2010 – 2012 Radičová Crisis of the right 2012 – 2016 Fico II Political earthquake 2016 - 2020 Fico III / Pellegrini See lecture on 2020 election