BSSn4495:
Qualitative
research in
security
studies
Causality and causal
logic
March 1, 2022
Miriam Matejova, PhD
Agenda
• Types of causal claims
• Causal logics/mechanisms
Recap: causal questions and claims
• Why something happens – or doesn’t happen
• The conditions under which something happens
• The effect of something on something else
• The process through which one thing affects
another
Why causal theories?
• Prescription requires causal knowledge
• Prediction requires causal knowledge
• Understanding
– To make sense of the world is to ask “why”
• Causal puzzles
– Why do political actors often fail to make
prescriptively ideal choices?
– Why do political choices and outcomes vary so
widely?
What is a cause?
• The US invasion of Iraq caused the rise of ISIS.
• Inequality is growing because of tax cuts for
the rich.
• Colonialism is responsible for the poverty of
many sub-Saharan African nations.
Structural causes of WWI
• Ethno-national tensions within Austria-
‐Hungary
• Imperialism: competition for resources
• German militarism and aggressive aims
• Structure of alliances
Structural causes vs triggers
• In December 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi, a
Tunisian vegetable peddler sets himself ablaze
after his cart is confiscated by a policewoman.
• Oppressive rule → Bouazizi self-immolation →
Collapse of Tunisian regime
• Individual actions as part of the causal
pathway
– Cause → very specific detail of the pathway
through which cause operated → outcome
Structural causes vs triggers
• Triggers are details of how or when exactly an
outcome happened.
• But triggers mostly fail to meet the
counterfactual definition of a cause.
– Triggers are substitutable (i.e., when structural
cause is present, lots of things could trigger the
outcome)
Which is a triggering event?
• Causes of Global Financial Crisis of 2008
A. Inequality
B. Weak regulatory structures
C. Collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank
• Causes of England riots of 2011
A. Police shooting of an Afro‐Caribbean man
B. Racial animosity in Britain
C. High youth unemployment
A puzzle
• How can war happen between two states that
know each other’s capabilities?
– E.g., USA and USSR during the Cold War
• For war to happen, there needs to be some
strategic miscalculation
– Strategic miscalculation is a “necessary condition”
for war
Necessary condition
• “Condition C must happen for outcome E to
emerge.”
• A cause without which an effect cannot occur.
– A large middle class is a necessary condition for
the emergence of democracy.
Conjunctural causation
• When an effect depends on a combination of
causes.
– War requires BOTH miscalculation and strong
offensive capabilities.
– Revolutions require BOTH deprivation and
arbitrary rule.
– Conditional effect: the effect of C on E depends on
D (e.g., poverty causes short civil war when ethnic
diversity is low)
Sufficient conditions
• A cause that always produces an effect
– A fire is sufficient to cause heat.
– Rare in social sciences, because so much causation
is conjunctural
Multiple causation
• When there is more than one set of causes
that can produce an effect.
– A can cause E OR C can cause E
– What can cause military leaders to lose power?
Military defeat or economic decline.
Multiple and conjunctural causation
• A combination of A+B can cause E OR a
combination of C+D can cause E
• Why do civil wars happen?
– A combination of ethnic diversity and political
inequality between groups OR a combination of
meddling by foreign powers and deep ideological
polarization
Democracy and Economic Development
Causal logic
• Democracy appears to be good for economic
development.
– More democracy → Higher economy growth, more
income and wealth per capita, more stability in
economic outcomes
• C causes E: Democracy leads to economic
development.
• But this is not enough to explain how or why E
happens as a result of C.
• WHY or HOW does democracy lead to economic
development?
Why Democracy leads to economic
development
• More democracy → Peaceful alternations of
power and respect for rule of law generate
stability → Stability fosters a climate in which
people are willing to invest in the economy →
Politicians refrain from reneging on
democratic commitments that would disrupt
investment and the economy to secure reelection
→ Economic development
Causal logic
• A causal logic is a set of statements about how
or why a cause produces an effect.
• A causal logic usually involves a causal chain
that logically connects the cause C to the
effect E
How to produce causal logic
1) Make sure the causal logic starts with the cause,
ends with the effect.
2) Make sure each step is something that logically
causes the step after it.
3) A causal logic is not a chronological list of events
that happened in a specific place; it’s a general
logic of how one thing causes another in the
world.
4) Background assumptions should be treated
separately.
Causal logic: wealth and civil war
• Causal claim: Greater national wealth (C)
reduces likelihood of civil war (E).
• But why? How does wealth affect the
likelihood of civil war?
Causal logic: wealth and civil war
1) Richer states can spend more on counterinsurgency
operations → quick suppression
of rebellion
2) Wealth reduces discontent → less rebellion
3) In richer countries, young men will have
better economic alternatives to fighting →
rebel groups can’t recruit
Causal logic: wealth and civil war
Logic 1: counter-insurgency capacity
Logic 2: Reduced discontent
Less civil war
(E)
Wealth
(C)
Logic 3: Recruitment problems
Causal logics: why they matter
• If we know the cause of an effect, why do we
care about the causal logic?
• More complete understanding:
• Tells us about “side effects” of a cause in addition
to the main effects we are interested in
• More evidence we can gather about a possible
causal relationship
• Helps us address issues, make policy choices
Causal logics: why they matter
• 1) Clarifies side effects, unintended
consequences:
o C → s1 → s2 → s3 →E
• 2) Helps with prescription
– Sometimes we can’t manipulate C, but we can
manipulate s1, s2, etc.
– E.g., arm governments or fund education
Causal logics: side effects