NIC Global Trends ü2020: Mapping the global future (Dec 2004) ü“At no time since the formation of the Western alliance system have the shape and nature of international alignments been in such a flux.” ü2025: A Transformed World (Dec 2008) üGlobal multipolar world with key uncertainties ü2030: US Leadership in a Post-Western World (Dec 2012) üIndividual empowerment … diffusion of power … energy/water/food ü2035: Paradox of Progress (Jan 2017) üPromise and peril ü2040: A More Contested World (March 2021) Global Trends 2040 üGlobal Challenges üClimate Change üDisease üFinancial Crises üTechnology Disruptions üImpact on: üCommunities üSocieties üStates üInternational system ü üFragmentation üExacerbated by system shocks üDisequilibrium üChallenges/needs ~ capacity üSystems eroding üContestation üPolarization, rising tensions üMore prone to violence üCompetitive geopolitics üAdaptation üImperative to survive üCould contribute to inequality Scenarios 2040 ?? üRenaissance of democracies üU.S. leads resurgence of democracies üA World Adrift üChina leading but not dominant üCompetitive Coexistence üU.S. vs China competing üSeparate Silos üUnraveling of globalization … return of blocs üTragedy & Mobilization üEU & China respond to environmental crises Global Trends – The Good News Economics 1.Globalization & the information age have enabled an explosion of global wealth and a reduction in extreme poverty. üSince the 1970s ... global population has risen about 50% (from 5 billion to 7.5+ billion) ... But the number of people in the world living in extreme poverty has been reduced by 50% (from almost 2 billion to under 1 billion). üPrincipal “winners” have been: üMiddle classes in emerging economies, especially China, India üThe most affluent in the developed “post-industrial” world (including 10-15% of U.S. population, 5% in W Europe, Japan) 4 Global Trends – The Bad News Economics 1.Expansion of global wealth has been accompanied by greater gaps between rich and poor, both in actual wealth and opportunities to access wealth üPrincipal “losers” in this global wealth expansion: üThe very poor in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East ... [The Bottom Billion, Collier, 2007] üCitizens of rich countries with stagnating incomes, much of the population of former communist countries ... exacerbated by changing nature of work, less access to quality education & retraining, dependence on debt during 2008 financial crisis üBoth create a crisis of expectations, in both rich & poor societies 5 Global Trends – The Good News Demographics 2.Overall global population growth rate is declining after almost 50% growth in last half-century ... 7.6 billion today ... 8.6 billion (2030) ...9.7 billion (2050) ... 11.2 billion (2100) üDeclining fertility rates üImproved maternal and post-natal health (after baby boom) üIncreasing numbers of women seeking employment out of the home üGrowing urbanization üHigher life expectancy worldwide ü 6 Global Trends – The Bad News Demographics 2.Changing distribution of global demographics will add stress – in different ways – to all countries. üBulk of population growth in future decades confined to the poorest countries least able to cope with that growth üAfrica ... Over 50% of global growth by 2050 ... Nigeria 3rd most populous country after India & China ü“Youth bulges” persist in Africa, South Asia, Arab world üIn wealthy countries – population aging, working-age populations decreasing ... Increased burdens on support systems for aging üPeople in distress will migrate to places where they perceive opportunities for a better life for themselves and their children ü 7 Global Trends – The Good News Technology 3.Rapid technological growth has enabled: üExplosive economic growth üTransformations in manufacturing and energy üDemocratized access to information üNew frontiers in healthcare and the fight against disease üPeople across boundaries and cultures to interact üAn end to major conflict between major powers [so far] 8 Global Trends – The Bad News Technology 3.Technology is a value neutral tool – for every benefit and advantage, there is also vulnerability to its exploitation: üSocioeconomic dislocation as a result of the changing nature of work and increased automation üProliferation – and fragmentation – of information and media place new burdens on the consumer to assess reliability, think critically üAdvances in biotechnology raise difficult ethical & moral issues üInterconnectedness heightens localism & populism as people believe their identities are being threatened – institutions lose legitimacy üNew weapons technologies [e.g. cyber, bio, etc] enable even weak countries – and groups – to pose unacceptable risks 9 Global Trends – The Good News Politics 4.End of the 20th century witnessed an unprecedented rise in democratic governance and pluralist political institutions üDefeat of Fascism and Soviet Communism as credible contending models of development and governance üCollapse of empires – imperial structures that had been the principal model of international relations for centuries üEven among autocratic regimes, the “vocabulary” and “edifices” of democratic governance were essential both at home and abroad üProjections of the “End of History” (Fukuyama) plus growth of information technologies foreshadowed converging interest globally and increased cooperation to tackle shared problems 10 Global Trends – The Bad News Politics 4.Globalization brought winners & losers … the losers fought back! üDemocratic governance is hard ... it takes generations to develop the “civic virtues” that make pluralism work & can’t be imposed üSocioeconomic dislocation reaped by globalization create fear, anxiety, and impatience with which governments can’t cope üMore actors mean more voices seeking to be heard – and frustrated by the result – but institutions are weak and exploitable üChallenges to good governance increase beyond the capacity of most systems to cope ... so governments cultivate distractions üResult – persistent rise of autocratic models of governance, notions of “illiberal democracy” as populism increases 11 Implications – “Top Ten”? 1.Industrial & information revolutions created transformative opportunities ... heightened expectations ... seeded dangers 2.The global economy – and the nature of work – are shifting (again) 3.Societies – both rich and poor – are unraveling at home 4.The rich are aging … the poor aren’t (but they ARE urbanizing) 5.Technology accelerates progress … but creates disruptive discontinuities 12 Implications – “Top Ten”? 6.Ideas and identities can create new communities … but they can also drive a wave of exclusion & intolerance 7.Governing is getting more necessary … but harder 8.Conflict is more lethal – blurring civilian/military lines … also more likely … and less manageable 9.Societies and institutions are more vulnerable to systemic risks – interdependence of complex systems (environmental, financial, informational, etc) 10.20th century “liberal world order” – and the institutions that sustained it – is breaking down 11. 13