Recent Development Kuciak, 2020 Election, COVID-19 Peter Spáč Support of SMER-SD (2012-2016) 2016 General Election New Government •Decline of SMER-SD excluded the scenario of a one-party government • •Two scenarios: •SMER-SD + several partners •Grand coalition without SMER-SD • •Final outcome: •SMER-SD, SNS, Most-Hid, Network •Fico as the PM for the third time •Network collapsed shortly after that and part of its MPs went to Most • •“The barrier against extremism” Acceptance of the government SMER-SD, SNS, Most-Hid, Network Acceptable Not acceptable Do not know SMER-SD 85 11 3 SNS 60 29 12 Most-Hid 39 47 13 Network 36 45 18 KDH 31 53 16 We are Family 23 62 15 LSNS 19 71 10 SaS 19 77 4 SMK 16 84 0 OLaNO 13 84 3 Non voters 30 45 25 All 39 47 14 The Breaking Point in February 2018 •Murder of investigative journalist J. Kuciak and his fiancée M. Kušnírová at their home • •Tremendous consequences: •Public impact comparable to November 1989 •Mass demonstrations around the whole country •Shifts in public opinions •Personal earthquake in the government •Negative effect primarily on SMER-SD Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, vonkajšie, dav, budova Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, ľudia, obrovské, dav Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, dav, vonkajšie, obrovské Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je obrovské, koláč, mesto Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, stojaci, muž, oblek Automaticky generovaný popis Personal Consequences •Various prominent officials forced to step down •PM Fico •Minister of Interior Kaliňák •President of the Slovak Police Force Gašpar • •Peter Pellegrini as the new PM (SMER-SD) •Fico remained SMER-SD leader • •The General Attorney promised to unleash “hell” Support of SMER-SD Investigation (1) •The Italian scenario Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, muž, vonkajšie, hora Automaticky generovaný popis Investigation (2) •The Kočner network scenario • •Murder as revenge • •Network of judges granting him protection • •Threema New parties in the opposition •Progressive Slovakia (centre-left and liberal) •Together – Civic Democracy (centre-right) • •Successful cooperation in 2018 local and 2019 EP and presidential election • •For the People: •Established by Andrej Kiska after finishing his mandate •More conservative leaning • Four Months Before 2020 Election Party Votes in % Votes - Threshold Projected Seats SMER-SD 20.0 15.0 36 PS – Together 11.7 4.7 21 For the People 10.6 5.6 19 LSNS 10.3 5.3 19 We are Family 7.0 2.0 13 SNS 6.8 1.8 13 KDH 5.7 0.7 10 OLaNO 5.7 0.7 10 SaS 5.0 0.0 9 Most-Hid 4.1 -0.9 0 Survey by Focus Agency, October 30 – November 6, N = 1,020 • Integration Attempts •“Democratic” opposition: •PS-Together, For the People, OLaNO, SaS, KDH •Separate line of KDH •For the People only accepted a cooperation of all parties or nothing àas a result, all parties continued alone (and PS-Together as a coalition) • •„If there are too many parties just above the threshold, it is naive to expect that voters will coordinate their behavior to save all of them” •Peter Spáč, 11.11.2019 •(https://dennikn.sk/1647669/volby-2020-nerozhodnu-vitazi-ale-porazeni/) Further Integration Attempts •Hungarian parties: •Both Most-Hid and SMK (now as MKO-MKS) below the threshold •Too many Hungarian parties for a single Hungarian minority •Initial hope to cooperate ended without any result • •Far right and protest parties: •LSNS and the newly emerged Homeland •Kotleba and Harabin scored 530,000 votes in 2019 presidential election (roughly ¼ of all votes) •Discussions on integration failed Main Topics in the Campaign •The 2018 murder •Second anniversary only a few days before the election • •Corruption, scandals of SMER-SD, linkages to Kočner • •Rise of LSNS and extremism in general • •Unsuccessful attempt to bring back “old” topics, e.g. immigrants Obrázok, na ktorom je vonkajšie, osoba, cesta, ľudia Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je vonkajšie, príroda, trávnik, vlak Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, muž, predné, držiaci Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, vonkajšie, muž, stojaci Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je držiaci, stojaci, chlapec, mladé Automaticky generovaný popis Expert Evaluation of the Campaign (N = 56) Obrázok, na ktorom je jedlo, znak Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je kreslenie Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je koleso Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je kreslenie Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je vonkajšie, znak, fľaša, čierne Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je kreslenie, znak, hodiny Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je dáždnik Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je kreslenie Automaticky generovaný popis Few Days Before the Election •SMER and SNS announced vast social benefits before the election • •13th pension •Doubling of child allowances •Abolishment of highway tolls • •The parliament passed only the pensions •SMER-SD, SNS, LSNS, We are Family • 2020 general election New Government •OLaNO, We are Family, SaS, For the People • •PM Matovič • •95 MPs (90 required to amend the Constitution) • •Question of stability and survival Potential clashes •OLaNO: •Largest governing party, 53 MPs •Previous record of low stability • •Anti-corrupt voter’s attitudes vs. Christian activists among MPs • •Conservatives vs. liberals in the government • •Two minor parties (For the People and SaS) weakened •Andrej Kiska retired from his party and politics • • Anti-corrupt activities •“Mani pulite” in a Slovak way • •Numerous arrests of prominent figures •Judges, people in business, attorneys, police leadership •Many already confessed they had committed crimes • •Uncovering a huge corruption network allegedly linked to previous governing parties • •Unleashed fantasy of police name generators: •Storm, Tempest, Judas, Babylon, Purgatory, God Mills… • • COVID-19 •Spread of pandemic during the first days of the new government •First positive test on March 6 • •Quick response similarly to other European countries •Borders, lockdown, closure of schools, facemasks… • •Spring to summer 2020: •Great success in terms of numbers: •Low number of cases •Extremely low numbers of casualties • •Before summer – weakening of adopted anti-pandemic restrictions 1st Wave of COVID-19 Matovič na návšteve v Česku: Od polnoci sa otvárajú spoločné hranice bez kontroly | TVnoviny.sk 6 June 2020 – Borders re-opening 1st Wave of COVID-19 + Summer 2020 2nd Wave of COVID-19 – Cumulative Cases 2nd Wave of COVID-19 – Cumulative Deaths Atomic Weapon against COVID-19 •Nationwide testing •Strongly supported by Prime Minister •‘The pass to freedom’ • •Held on October 31 – November 1 •More than 3.6 million people tested •One per cent positives • •Discrepancies over interpretation of its effects •Further rounds of testing in selected regions KRAJNIAKA ZAČALI PRIROVNÁVAŤ K FIDELOVI CASTROVI | Extraplus Rising conflicts in the government •Prime Minister Matovič v. SaS leader Sulík • •Topics: •Level of restrictions •Nationwide testing •Antigen tests purchase • •Constant tensions between OLaNO and SaS •Enhanced by public opinion development • • Spor Matoviča so Sulíkom. Dáta aj odborník ukazujú prstom na jasného víťaza | TVnoviny.sk Spor Matovič – Sulík graduje, premiér ho viní zo smrtí ľudí a odporučil výmenu šéfa SaS – Denník N Government Crisis in March 2021 •Escalation of previous development • •Communication of PM – Facebook politics •Matovič v. Sulík •Atomic weapon v. reality • •Purchase of unauthorized Sputnik V vaccine as the trigger • AKTUÁLNE: Na Slovensku pristálo vládne lietadlo s dávkami vakcíny Sputnik V | Žilinak.sk Government Crisis in March 2021 •SaS and For the People demanded Matovič to resign • •Various firmness of such demands – SaS v. For the People • •A series of resignations of several members of the government •All ministers of SaS (including Sulík), one minister of For the People •One resignation from We are Family which remains a mystery • •Matovič facing risk of losing majority in parliament •For the People facing risk of complete disintegration • Government Crisis in March 2021 •Main scenarios: •SaS leaves the government (80) •SaS and For the People leave the government (70) • •‘Reconstruction’ of the government: •Matovič ends as PM and switches office with Minister of Finance •SaS and For the People ministers return back to their offices •The resignation of the minister of We are Family still remains a mystery • •Improving COVID-19 statistics as a factor? • Dynamic Development in Opposition •Voice – Social Democracy: •Splinter party from SMER-SD •Leader Peter Pellegrini •Support of 20-25 per cent of voters •Hidden strategy? • •SMER-SD: •Fico’s unchallenged leadership •Sharp decline of support •New position of a small party • HLAS – sociálna demokracia – Wikipédia Fico: Kandidátom Smeru na podpredsedu parlamentu je Pellegrini - Domáce - Správy - Pravda.sk Referendum 2021? •Referendum for early election • •Non-partisan initiative fully organized by political parties •SMER-SD, Voice, SNS • •Negative record of such referendums v. discontent in the society •COVID-19 restrictions, economic impact of the pandemic •Death of previous Police President • •In April 2021 SMER-SD announced it gathered enough signatures • •Constitutional Court declared early election referendum as violating the constitution à president refused to call the referendum Most Recent Development •Voice – Social Democracy vs. Smer – Social Democracy •Changes in public support •Friends or enemies? •Shift of SMER to far right after pandemic • • •Russian assault on Ukraine •Initial support for refugees transformed into polarized society •Various reactions of relevant parties