Human Overpopulation
as the Threat to Security
Jan Greguš
Center of Outpatient Gynecology & Primary Care
Center of Prenatal Diagnostics
Department of Philosophy, Masaryk University
Human Overpopulation
as the Threat to Security
Jan Greguš
BSSb1194 Unintentional and Natural Threats to Security
Division of Security and Strategic Studies
Department of Political Science, Masaryk University
The Overpopulation
The Human Overpopulation
• a condition of being populated with excessively large numbers of people
• a situation which occurs when the number of human occupants of an area
exceeds the ability of that area to provide for those occupants
• j
The Human Overpopulation
• “When is an area overpopulated? When its population cannot be maintained
without rapidly depleting non-renewable resources, and without
degrading the capacity of the environment to support the population.
In short, if the long-term carrying capacity of an area is clearly degraded
by its current human occupants, that area is overpopulated.” (Ehrlich 1990)
• environmentally defined
• j
The Excursion to Sustainability
• the goal of sustainability = to “create and maintain conditions, under which
humans and nature can exist in productive harmony, that permit fulfilling the
social, economic, and other requirements of present and future generations.”
(NEPA 1969)
• a sustainable approach is based
on three pillars of sustainability
• it protects the environment, strengthens communities, and fosters prosperityj
The Sustainable Population
Studies for a sustainable human population
based on various criteria and assumptions:
• 1.5 – 2 billion (Daily et al. 1994)
• 3 billion (Pimental et al. 1994)
• 2 billion (Daily et al. 2010)
• 3.1 billion (Lianos and Pseiridis 2016)
• 3 billion (Tucker 2019)
• 0.5 – 5 billion (Dasgupta 2019)j
But What Do We Have?
The Unsustainable Population
In 2022, humanity reached 8 billion
with growth over 80 million a year:
No sign of slowing down till 2100:
• 8.5 billion (2030)
• 9.7 billion (2050)
• 10.4 billion (2100)
The Population Growth
Since 1950, humanity has witnessed a rapid population growth:
• 2.5 billion (1950)
• 5 billion (1987)
• 6 billion (1999)
• 7 billion (2011)
But Is that a Problem?
The Problems of Overpopulation
• climate change
• environmental degradation and pollution
• resource depletion
• increase in municipal waste
• biodiversity loss
• deforestation, desertification
• mass species extinction (species genocide)j
The Problems of Overpopulation
• water scarcity
• food insecurity
• mass starvation, malnutrition
• pandemic emergence
• inadequate healthcare services
• increased poverty
• inadequate housingj
The Problems of Overpopulation
• major obstacle to achieving Sustainable Development Goals
(1) No poverty, (2) Zero hunger, (3) Good health and well-beingj
But that‘s not Our Problem
• j
The Threat to Security
The Problems of Overpopulation
• forced migration
• climate refugees
• radicalization
• extremism
• widespread conflict
• resource-driven wars
The Sub-Saharan Problem
• more than 50% of anticipated growth between 2023 and 2050 here
• after 2050 the only contributor to the world population growth
• out of 47 countries with high fertility rates, 32 countries are in SSA
• 18 countries will double their population, Niger will tripple
The Nigerian Time Bomb
• 37 million (1950)
• 201 million (2021)
• 401 million (2050)
• 733 million (2100)
The Migration Period
The Threat to our Security
The Need for an Ethical Solution
• not blaming victims (climate refugees, war refugees)
• targetting problems at their origins (focus on Africa)
• securing oneselves, helping those in need (ethically)
Thank You for Your Attention
Contact: jangregus@seznam.cz