CONFLICTS AND VNSA Lucie Konečná GLCb2026 Africas Contemporary Security Challenges 1/3/2023 South Sudan Last year to implement 2018 peace deaf \{ Political and community clashes persist Ethiopia Negotiated settlement a priority AU mediation not showing results Mozambique ^ Rwandan and SADC troops battling an insurgency Developmental response and regional links key lnsTnurepot f r i c a n c o n f l i c t s t o w a t c h i n 2 0 2 2 resh approaches needed to avoid disaster in worst-affected countries Contemporary Conflict Trends 1. A decrease in the number of interstate wars and an increase in the number of intrastate wars, 2. Internationalization of national/intrastate conflicts 3. Engagement of foreign units that are motivated by the economic interests of their countries 4. An increase in identity conflicts 5. An increase in conflicts involving VNSA 6. An increase in civilian casualties Figure 1. Trends in interstate wars over time . 3 0 % * 25 !*. £ 2 0 J 1 5 M 2 1 0 Our World in Data 0 2 1 1 1 III 1 nil i n 1, ,111, ,1 i 1 Lu JilliilLuLim i ii i , Number of active slale-based conflicts, World. 1946 to 2020 State-based conflicts are conflicts between two parties, where at least one is the government of a state. One-sided violence - such as massacres or genocide - are not included. 4^Change region Nurnberof civil conflicts with foreign state i lite rvention 5 0 1900 1915 1930 1945 I960 1975 1990 2005 Year Nurnberof civil conflicts . Nurnberof conflicts between states Nurnberof colonial or imperial conflicts 1946 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2020 Source: O W I D based on UCDP/PRIO OurWorldlnData.org/war-and-peace • CCBY Note: Ongoing conflicts are represented for every year in which they resulted in at least 25 direct deaths (civilian or military). Contemporary Conflict Trends 7. Increasing numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons 8. Development of humanitarian activities and aid 9. Privatization of conflicts 10. Brutalization of conflicts 11. Extending the duration of conflicts chart 1 I P L A N N I N G F I G U R E S : 102.6 million people of concern in 2022 PLANNING FIGURES Unit: million 2015 2016 2017 2013 2019 2020 2021 2 0 2 2 VNSA - General Info • Primary, secondary, and tertiary conflict actors • Intrastate, Interstate, and Non-state/Sub-state conflicts • Violent Non-State Actors: a) use violence to achieve their goals b) are not integrated within formalized state structures • Violence that involves violent non-state actors is often described as unconventional • Violent non-state actors involved in a low-intensity conflict may prefer the status quo over negotiation and mediation because their power is much lower Typology of War Participants • 1. Members of the armed forces according to international law: - Combatants - members of regular or irregular armed forces - Non-combatants - not intended for combat duties (medics, clerics). 2. Civilians • Real fighters in modern wars: a) Conventional soldiers/army b) Insurgents, guerrillas, partisans, and rebels c) Terrorists d) Mercenaries, PSC/PMC e) Foreign volunteers f) Warlords g) Child soldiers h) Paramilitary units and death squads i) Militias Factors Affecting the Rise of VNSA • Decline of bipolarity/end of Cold War and the emergence of a globalized world • Socioeconomic factors • Repressive politics • Poverty and income inequality • Weakness of security institutions • State collapse • Individual explanations (rural vs. urban, age, education, socio-economic status, unemployment, socio-psychological level) VNSA Typology according to Williams • Rebels/Insurgency • Militia • Paramilitary units • Terrorist groups • Warlords • Criminal organizations and gangs • Motivations and purpose • Strength and scope • Funding and access to resources • Organizational structure • Role of violence • Relationship between VNSA and state • Functions of VNSAs for members and supporters VNSA Typology according to Ezrow • Insurgencies • Warlords and Marauders • Paramilitary units • Terrorist Organizations • Private security companies • Organized crime and gangs • Motivation • Strategy and tactics • Funding and access to resources • Organizational structure • Scope and power • Victims • Legitimacy and popularity T a b l e 111,1 T y p e s of V i o l e n t Non-state A c t o r s a n d their K e y C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s K e y g r o u p L e g i t i m a c y S t r a t e g y a n d t h r e a t e n e d / O r g a n 1 zati o rial S c o p e a n d a n d M o t i v a t i o n t a c t i c s •.• • In-: S t r u c t u r e prOWer1 p o p u l a r i t y • e f , n U ' a f a t e Political g e l P r o v i d e S t a t e 1 r;l ii v v e r y H i g h uí> & Sl&le S e r v i c e s O r g a n i z e d : powerful L legilirri-acy a n d a r m e d hierarchical territorial d e f e n c e ; hold control ler ' ilOi y P ů l i t 1 1 PoUdoafc FVOvide p * M y H1:-iCr> 1 i-:l il v- S o m e w h a t Higii C i r g í i n i j ř i l i o n v influence platform ; lywcrfi il legitimacy; . . i i n i i i i : policy a n d a r m e d hierarchical public w i n g s d e f e n c e s u p p e i 1 li i M U Lji..'i i c y P ů l i l leal: M o s t l y a r m e d ..:.i\. a n d S o m e w h a t S o m e w h a t S o m e V.l\ ll!r= CO H I i»o I h o l d SOCiOly pOwerfuU l e g i t i m a c y territory s o m e s o m e w h a t territorial hierarchical C I II il -ol T e r r o r Political; E n g a g e S o c i e t y Tightly Not Lirlle o r g a n i z a l i o n v a r i e s trie m e d i a ; o r g a n i z e d : powerful l e g i t i m a c y p s y c h o l o g i c a l s o m e w h a t l A r a r l a r e , hill hierarchical Civilians T e r r o r P o i m c a l : E n g a g e S o c i e t y C e l l u l a r / l o o s e ; Met Little n e t w o r k a m o r p h o u s the m e d i a ; s o r n e w h a l powerful l e g i t i m a c y p s y c h o l o g i c a l hierarchical 11111 r i: KJM c i v i l i a n s M a r a u d i n g e c o n o m i c / L o o t a n d S o c i e t y L o o s e Not Little r a b e is opportunistic pillage, kill (stale powerful: l e g i t i m a c y c i v i l i a n s m a y h a v e t e m p o r a r y a l r e a d y control of c o l l a p s e d ) s o m e t o w n s or villages E c o n o m i c / L o o t a n d 1 ! , S o m e w h a t S o m e w h a t L i m a opportunistic i. i. i • (stale o r g a n i z e d fjiywcrfi il: l e g i t i m a c y predation m a y h a v e a r o u n d s o m e a l r e a d y chartsmaTrc control over c o l l a p s e d ) Vuai'lord territory • I. | : E c o n o m i c / C o r r u p t i o n , Tightly V e r y LftfJa c r i m e opportunistic c r i m e a n d society, o r g a n i z e d : p o w e r f u l ; l e g i t i m a c y v i o l e n c e i n d i v i d u a l s formerly s o m e h i e r a r c h i c a l . territorial n o w i . ii. • ! i | l l l l ! 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