BSSn4495: Qualitative research methods Causality and causal logic March 7, 2024 Miriam Matejova, PhD Agenda • Types of causal claims • Causal logics/mechanisms Recap: causal questions and claims • Why something happens – or doesn’t happen • The conditions under which something happens • The effect of something on something else • The process through which one thing affects another Why causal theories? • Prediction requires causal knowledge • Prescription requires causal knowledge • Understanding – To make sense of the world is to ask “why” • Causal puzzles – Why do political actors often fail to make prescriptively ideal choices? – Why do political choices and outcomes vary so widely? What is a cause? • The US invasion of Iraq caused the rise of ISIS. • Inequality is growing because of tax cuts for the rich. • Colonialism is responsible for the poverty of many sub-Saharan African nations. The cause of WWI? Structural causes of WWI • Ethno-national tensions within Austria- ‐Hungary • Imperialism: competition for resources • German militarism and aggressive aims • Structure of alliances Structural causes vs triggers • In December 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi, a Tunisian vegetable peddler sets himself ablaze after his cart is confiscated by a policewoman. • Oppressive rule → Bouazizi self-immolation → Collapse of Tunisian regime • Individual actions as part of the causal pathway – Cause → very specific detail of the pathway through which cause operated → outcome Structural causes vs triggers • Triggers are details of how or when exactly an outcome happened. • But triggers mostly fail to meet the counterfactual definition of a cause. – Triggers are substitutable (i.e., when structural cause is present, lots of things could trigger the outcome) Which is a triggering event? • Causes of Global Financial Crisis of 2008 A. Inequality B. Weak regulatory structures C. Collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank • Causes of England riots of 2011 A. Police shooting of an Afro‐Caribbean man B. Racial animosity in Britain C. High youth unemployment A puzzle • How can war happen between two states that know each other’s capabilities? – E.g., USA and USSR during the Cold War • For war to happen, there needs to be some strategic miscalculation – Strategic miscalculation is a “necessary condition” for war Necessary condition • “Condition C must happen for outcome E to emerge.” • A cause without which an effect cannot occur. – A large middle class is a necessary condition for the emergence of democracy. Conjunctural causation • When an effect depends on a combination of causes. – War requires BOTH miscalculation and strong offensive capabilities. – Revolutions require BOTH deprivation and arbitrary rule. – Conditional effect: the effect of C on E depends on D (e.g., poverty causes short civil war when ethnic diversity is low) Sufficient conditions • A cause that always produces an effect – A fire is sufficient to cause heat. – Rare in social sciences, because so much causation is conjunctural Multiple causation • When there is more than one set of causes that can produce an effect. – A can cause E OR C can cause E – What can cause military leaders to lose power? Military defeat or economic decline. Multiple and conjunctural causation • A combination of A+B can cause E OR a combination of C+D can cause E • Why do civil wars happen? – A combination of ethnic diversity and political inequality between groups OR a combination of meddling by foreign powers and deep ideological polarization Democracy and Economic Development Causal logic • Democracy appears to be good for economic development. – More democracy → Higher economy growth, more income and wealth per capita, more stability in economic outcomes • C causes E: Democracy leads to economic development. • But this is not enough to explain how or why E happens as a result of C. • WHY or HOW does democracy lead to economic development? Why Democracy leads to economic development • More democracy → Peaceful alternations of power and respect for rule of law generate stability → Stability fosters a climate in which people are willing to invest in the economy → Politicians refrain from reneging on democratic commitments that would disrupt investment and the economy to secure reelection → Economic development Causal logic • A causal logic is a set of statements about how or why a cause produces an effect. • A causal logic usually involves a causal chain that logically connects the cause C to the effect E How to produce causal logic 1) Make sure the causal logic starts with the cause, ends with the effect. 2) Make sure each step is something that logically causes the step after it. 3) A causal logic is not a chronological list of events that happened in a specific place; it’s a general logic of how one thing causes another in the world. 4) Background assumptions should be treated separately. Causal logic: wealth and civil war • Causal claim: Greater national wealth (C) reduces likelihood of civil war (E). • But why? How does wealth affect the likelihood of civil war? Causal logic: wealth and civil war 1) Richer states can spend more on counterinsurgency operations → quick suppression of rebellion 2) Wealth reduces discontent → less rebellion 3) In richer countries, young men will have better economic alternatives to fighting → rebel groups can’t recruit Causal logic: wealth and civil war Logic 1: counter-insurgency capacity Logic 2: Reduced discontent Less civil war (E) Wealth (C) Logic 3: Recruitment problems Causal logics: why they matter • If we know the cause of an effect, why do we care about the causal logic? • More complete understanding: • Tells us about “side effects” of a cause in addition to the main effects we are interested in • More evidence we can gather about a possible causal relationship • Helps us address issues, make policy choices Causal logics: why they matter • 1) Clarifies side effects, unintended consequences: o C → s1 → s2 → s3 →E • 2) Helps with prescription – Sometimes we can’t manipulate C, but we can manipulate s1, s2, etc. – E.g., arm governments or fund education Causal logics: side effects Questions?