VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS (VNSA) AND CONTEMPORARY ARMED CONFLICTS Lucie Konečná CDSn4005 Security Systems and Actors 23/4/2024 Conflict - Definition Conflict - Typology ■Based on: –a) strength/intensity - low, medium, or high intensity conflict (war). –b) used means: violent, non-violent (armed, unarmed). –c) causes: territorial, ethnic, religious, constitutional, ideological, economic, etc. –d) location (geographical level): international, transnational, national –e) actor - non-state/sub-state, intrastate, and interstate –intrastate conflict (civil war vs. intercommunal war) –extrastate conflict ■Types of conflict internationalization ■Typology of actors: ■ a) primary, secondary, external (tertiary) ■ b) spoilers ■ c) participants vs. conflicting parties The Bloodiest Conflicts of the 21st Century The bloodiest conflicts of the 21st century DRC (1998 – 2003) 2,5 – 5 mil Afghanistan (2001-2014/21) 170 00 Iraq (2003-2011) 200 000 - 1,2 mil Syria (2011 -) 500 000 Yemen (2014 -) 500 000 Darfur (2003 -) 400 000 Nigeria (2009 -) 200 000 Somalia (1991 - ) 500 000 Tigray War (2020-2022) 400 000 – 800 000 Ukraine (2022-) 150 000 – 500 000 Contemporary Conflict Trends ■1. A decrease in the number of interstate wars and an increase in the number of intrastate and substate wars, ■2. Internationalization of national/intrastate conflicts ■3. Engagement of foreign units that are motivated by the economic and strategic interests of their countries ■4. An increase in identity conflicts ■5. An increase in conflicts involving VNSA ■6. An increase in civilian casualties Contemporary Conflict Trends ■7. Increasing numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons ■8. Development of humanitarian activities and aid ■9. Technologization of war and information warfare ■10. Privatization of conflicts ■11. Brutalization of conflicts ■12. Extending the duration of conflicts VNSA - General Info ■Primary, secondary, and tertiary conflict actors ■Intrastate, Interstate, and Non-state/Sub-state conflicts ■Violent Non-State Actors: ■ a) use violence to achieve their goals ■ b) are not integrated within formalized state structures ■Violence that involves violent non-state actors is often described as unconventional ■Violent non-state actors involved in a low-intensity conflict may prefer the status quo over negotiation and mediation because their power is much lower Factors Affecting the Rise of VNSA ■End of Cold War and the emergence of a globalized world ■Socioeconomic factors and absence of goods and services ■Repressive politics ■Poverty and income inequality ■Weakness of security institutions ■State collapse ■Individual explanations (rural vs. urban, age, education, socio-economic status, unemployment, socio-psychological level) Typology of War Participants ■1. Members of the armed forces according to international law: –Combatants – members of regular or irregular armed forces –Non-combatants - not intended for combat duties (medics, clerics). –2. Civilians ■Real fighters in modern wars: a)Conventional soldiers/army b)Insurgents, guerrillas and rebels/partisans c)Terrorists d)Mercenaries, PSC/PMC e)Foreign volunteers f)Warlords g)Child soldiers h)Paramilitary units and death squads i)Militias j)Marauders k) – VNSA Typology according to Williams ■Rebels/Insurgency ■Militia ■Paramilitary units ■Terrorist groups ■Warlords ■Criminal organizations and gangs ■Motivations and purpose ■Strength and scope ■Funding and access to resources ■Organizational structure ■Role of violence ■Relationship between VNSA and state ■Functions VNSAs fulfill for members and supporters VNSA Typology according to Ezrow ■Insurgents ■Warlords and Marauders ■Paramilitary units ■Terrorist Organizations ■Private security companies ■Organized crime and gangs ■Motivation ■Strategy and tactics ■Funding and access to resources ■Organizational structure ■Scope and power ■Victims ■Legitimacy and popularity VNSA Typology according to Schneckener Insurgency and rebels ■The primary raison d'être of these groups is to achieve some political goal ■Territorial control ■Strategy - irregular attacks and war of attrition ■Hierarchical structure, in recent years there has been decentralization ■A threat to the legitimacy of the state ■Four basic types: liberationist, separatist, reformist/revolutionary, and religious/traditional. Insurgency Terrorist Organizations ■A deliberate form of politically motivated violence ■Lack of territorial character ■Low threat to state legitimacy (very little public support) ■Strategy - psychological impact, shock a wide audience, attacks mainly on civilians ■Structure - currently mainly network ■Arquilla a Ronfeldt (2001) - Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy ■Zelinsky a Shubik (2008) – hierarchy, franchise, venture capital, a brand Warlordism ■Primarily economically motivated violence ■Strong territorial character ■Hierarchical structure - headed by a charismatic leader ■A threat especially to weak states ■Strategy - marauding terror, unpredictable and random violence Organized Crime and Gangs ■Economic motivation ■Often transnational ■Hierarchical and network structure ■Strategy - use of violence to achieve economic goals, attempt to avoid media attention, violence especially in times of uncertainty ■The effort to subvert the structures of the state - they do not want to completely destroy the state Private Military Companies ■Economic motivation ■Territoriality is related to the type of task/contract ■Hierarchical structure ■Strategy - they do not have long-term strategies, it always depends on the contract ■Can threaten the state's monopoly on the use of violence, ineffective as a long-term solution ■Executive Outcomes, Blackwaters/Academi, Wagner Group ■United Nations Mercenary Convention 2001 (The convention extends on the Geneva Conventions Protocol I which in Article 47(1) states that a mercenary cannot be a lawful combatant or prisoner of war) ■Mercenaries: foreigner, independence – not a member of the army, economic motivation, obscure recruitment, short-term/ad hoc tasks, engaged in combat ■Military Providing Firms, Military Consulting Firms, Military Supporting Firms Class Participation- Discuss the following points: ■Which factors do you think have contributed to the increase in the deployment of Private Military Companies? ■What type of VNSA do you think represents the biggest threat to the Czech Republic? Why? ■Do you know some examples of interstate conflicts after 1990 from Asia, America, Africa, and Europe? ■Do you know any other contemporary conflict trends that have not been mentioned? – Thank you for your attention