Biophysical Limits to Growth Brian D. Fath Professor, Biology Dept, Towson University, USA Senior Research Scholar, IIASA, Austria Co-Editor-in-Chief, Current Research in Environmental Sustainability Biophysical Limits to Growth Brian D. Fath Professor, Biology Dept, Towson University, USA Senior Research Scholar, IIASA, Austria Co-Editor-in-Chief, Current Research in Environmental Sustainability Lightness n“With fewer things, we obtain a certain lightness that contributes to overall well-being” ¨Paraphrased from H. Kromp-Kolb July 17 AEMS opening address The Unbearable Lightness of Being: A Novel (Harper Perennial Deluxe Editions): Kundera, Milan: 9780061148521: Amazon.com: Books Il fantasma di Milan Kundera - la Repubblica Milan Kundera 1929–2023 RIP Abundance n“How can life be so bountiful, providing such sublime rewards for mediocrity?” p. 42 Foucault's Pendulum We have too much surplus: Learn to say “Enough” The energy crisis we have is not one of shortage but one of surplus Imagine the destruction we will cause with a cheap, plentiful energy source, regardless if it is renewable or not. We witness unsustainable human-ecosystem interactions nHow could people make such serious mistakes in the past and why does society continue to repeat such mistakes today? Why environmental resources have been poorly conserved in the past? 1.Nature’s rate of return of ecosystem services leads us to over exploitation ¨Living off the flow is too slow, for how we want to grow ¨Poor understanding of growth, exponential growth 2.Externalities ¨Indirect cost not paid for by producer and consumer as part of a transaction ¨When a decision (for example, to pollute the atmosphere) causes costs or benefits to individuals or groups other than the person making the decision 3.Pressure for resource consumption ¨Economic and institutional growth paradigm ¨Victor Lebow (1955): our enormously productive economy demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfactions, our ego satisfactions, in consumption ¨Marketing Drivers of Unsustainability nHUMAN POPULATION INCREASE ØAgriculture ØShelter ØMobility ØStuff Use Energy and Material Resources causes ØLand use change ØHabitat loss ØDeforestation ØAlter biogeochemical cycles Climate Change Eutrophication Acid precipitation Ozone Depletion Smog … Leads to Economics nEconomics is one the main organizing forces in society n nMany decisions are made based on cost-benefit analysis but true costs (direct + indirect) to individual, society, or environment are often not known Economic Growth Models WHERE IS ENVIRONMENT? http://www.polyp.org.uk/cartoons/consumerism/polyp_cartoon_Still_Not_Happy.jpg http://environment.research.yale.edu/documents/images/0-9/08Spr-happiness-chart03.jpg What is the purpose of growth? Alternative well-being indicators tell a different story Does bigger always mean better? http://www.polyp.org.uk/cartoons/consumerism/polyp_cartoon_enough.jpg Memetic rivalries: Rene Girard Our wants are socially constructed in competition (for status) with others. We measure in terms of others, not absolutes www.nytimes.com/2016/08/07/upshot/were-in-a-low-growth-world-how-did-we-get-here.html?hp&action=cli ck&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top- news&_r=0 It increasingly looks as if something fundamental is broken in the global growth machine — and that the usual menu of policies, like interest rate cuts and modest fiscal stimulus, aren’t up to the task of fixing it (though some well-devised policies could help). Assumption error: Economy as an isolated system A better model: Economy as an open system A look back at the history recognizing limits Thomas Malthus nPredicts eventually food and resources will run out as populations explode n A person posing for the camera Description automatically generated 1798 George Perkins Marsh n“A certain measure of transformation of terrestrial surface, of suppression of natural, and stimulation of artificially modified productivity becomes necessary. This measure man has unfortunately exceeded.” n n n“The ravages committed by man subvert the relations and destroy the balance which nature has established…; and she avenges herself upon the intruder by letting loose her destructive energies…” Image, Source: from print from LC-BH8201-4981 http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0295983167.01._AA240_SCLZZZZZZZ_.jpg 1864 Aldo Leopold nA Sand County Almanac – regarded as the most influential book on conservation ever written. n nThe land ethic: n"A thing is right when it tends to preserve the integrity, stability, and beauty of the biotic community. It is wrong when it tends otherwise." n nEnlarges the boundaries of the community to include soils, waters, plants, and animals, or collectively: the land. n http://www.historycooperative.org/journals/ht/37.1/images/frese_fig02b.jpg 1949 Rachel Carson n1960s – The modern environmental movement is born n n1962 Silent Spring nCarson, writer and marine biologist, told how chemical use on farms, forests, and gardens, poison the environment. Insects were dying (not just the pest species) which meant no food for the birds. No birds, no bird song – a silent spring n nPublic awareness that humans are damaging environment http://www.todayinliterature.com/assets/photos/c/rachel-carson-190x290.jpg http://library.furman.edu/resources/subject/women/images/rachelcarson.gif 1st Earth Day 1970 The first Earth Day was a shot heard around the world Donella Meadows and Club of Rome http://www.clubofrome.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/ov-simmons1.jpg 1972 http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/science/cool-space-picture-5.jpg n“Natural principles of chemistry, mechanics and biology are not merely limits. They’re invitations to work along with them.” n Limits to Growth 2000 Jane Jacobs n“There are limits. Let’s celebrate the limits, because we can reinvent a different future.” Sunita Narain This Changes Everything 2015 clubofsiena.eco-soft.dk 2015 Ecosystems do quite well under constraints, let’s learn from them Importance of scale Importance of scale Emergence of humans, from a minor component of natural system to predominant occupant Scale of humanity has increased greatly putting pressure on all natural resources The changes have come so fast our customs, ethics, and religious patterns may not have adapted to them. http://www.csc.noaa.gov/coastal/economics/images/sa7_fig06.gif Planetary Boundaries – Stockholm Resilience Centre 2009 Donut Economics – Kate Raworth 2012 Overshooting the limits Overshooting the limits – August 2, 2023 Earth Overshoot Day 2023 in Österreich - BIO AUSTRIA Ecosystem growth and development follows a logistic curve from early to late successional stages C:\bfath\Research\Misc\salzau\untitled.jpg Early stage Late stage DCP_3592.JPG Bioenergetic model of succession In early stages of succession, P>R and excess is channeled into growth and accumulation of biomass. Increase capacity and complexity of the energy storage compartments (total biomass of all species and trophic levels) as well as the complexity of energy transfer pathways. In late stages of succession, P=R as maintenance costs increase respiration Negative feedback maintains steady state, with little or no change in biomass (network, feedback, cycling). Growth à Quantitative increase Development à Qualitative increase "We must realize that growth and development are two very different things. You can develop without growing and vice versa.“ Tibor Vasko, 2009, www.solon-line.de/interview-with-tibor-vasko.html Four types of Ecosystem Growth and Development 0. Boundary Growth: How much energy enters the system. I. Structural Growth: Increase in biomass quantity in the number & size of components in the ecosystem. II. Network Development: Change in system connectivity, which results in more cycling. III. Information Development: Qualitative change in system behavior to more energetically efficient ones. Fath BD, Jørgensen SE, Patten BC, Straškraba M. 2004. Biosystems 77, 213–228. Figure 1 www.flightradar24.com/blog/then-and-now-visualizing-covid-19s-impact-on-air-traffic/ nasasport.wordpress.com/2020/04/04/new-generation-satellite-observations-monitor-air-pollution-duri ng-covid-19-lockdown-measures-in-california/ Venice Canals in 2019, left, and 2020, right Venice, Italy Alternative Economic Systems… nOne mistake of the 2007 financial crisis was the rush to put the system back as it was, flaws and all n nUse Covid to Build back better Herman Daly nBeyond Growth: the economics of sustainable development ¨The first and second laws of thermodynamics must be the starting point of economics ¨Neither the sources of useful inputs nor the sinks for polluting waste outputs are infinite. 1996 nThe circular flow model of economy is exactly as if a biology textbook proposed to study an animal only in terms of its circulatory system, without ever mentioning its digestive tract! nAn animal with an isolated circulatory system and no digestive tract would be a perpetual motion machine. nUnlike this imaginary circular-flow animal, real animals have digestive tracts that connect them to their environment at both ends. Daly (1996) continued Image result for organism with circulatory tract and digestive system Organisms continuously take in useful energy/matter and give back spent energy/matter. Circulation in a closed system is not a measure of how the organism is connected to its environment. Can’t have circulation without digestion Nicolas Georgescu-Roegen nThe Entropy Laws and the Economic Process (1971) ¨Wealth is an open system, a structure maintained in the midst of throughput ¨It begins with the depletion of useful matter/energy and ends with the return of an equal quantity of spent matter/energy back to the environment. Social/urban Metabolism: society’s digestive system Regenerative economy Input, Output, and System Dynamics 1. 2. 4. 3. Fath et al. 2019. Global Transitions. 1, 15–27. John Stuart Mill nBritish philosopher, political economist and civil servant (1806-1873) nConsidered “the most influential English-speaking philosopher of the nineteenth century" n n“Perpetual growth in material well-being is not possible or desirable.” Mill argued that the logical conclusion of unlimited growth was destruction of the environment and a reduced quality of life. He concluded that a stationary state could be preferable to unending economic growth WHY HAVE WE NOT LEARNED THIS LESSON? 1848 Steps forward nIdentify a shared common vision that respects planetary boundaries nEnhance built environment by mimicking natural processes nSystems thinking at all levels of decision-making nDefine sustainability and measure/monitor if current trends are heading toward or away from these trajectories n nNext generation initiates transformative change n Thank you for your attention! 2019 There is a right time to grow, it is just not always