GLCb2020
Environmental
threats and security
Catastrophic future?
March 28, 2024
Miriam Matejova, PhD
Agenda
• Disasters: definitions, types,
solutions
• Nuclear energy
The worst “natural” disasters in history
Location Date Type Fatalities
1. Northern China 1876-8 Drought 12 million
2. Bengal 1770 Drought 10 million
3. Central India 1876-8 Drought 6 million
4. Huang Ho river,
China
1931 Flood 3.7 million
5. China 1928 Drought 3 million
6. China 1959 Flood 2 million
7. Bangladesh 1943 Drought 1.9 million
8. Bihar, India 1965-7 Drought 1.5 million
8. Rajputana, India 1869 Drought 1.5 million
8. India 1900 Drought 1.5 million
Source: Hough (2014)
Disaster: definition
•Disaster events caused by a combination of
hazards and vulnerability
•Hazards can be natural (e.g., earthquake) or
human made (e.g., industrial processes)
•Vulnerability: risk, sensitivity, resilience,
fragility
Risk
•Probability X impact
Sensitivity
• Degree to which a given community is
negatively affected by external stimuli
• Higher sensitivity due to poor quality living
conditions increases vulnerability
Resilience
•Ability to “bounce
back”
•Depends on:
•Social support/
networks
•Available resources
•Equal access to
resources Graphic: UK DFID
Fragility
•Ability of a system to withstand stress
•Destroyed society can never be able to
rebuild
•Third Punic War 149-146 BC
•Genocide in Bosnia and Darfur
Types of disasters
• Geological: earthquake, avalanche, landslide, volcanic eruption
• Meteorological: storm, tornado, extreme temperatures, fire,
drought, hydrological disasters (flood, tsunami)
What increases vulnerability?
• Poverty
• Population growth
• Urbanization
• Soil degradation
• Refugees
• Climate change
• Lack of democracy
Disasters and energy
• Oil:
• Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010): killed 11 people and spilled 5
million barrels of oil
• Arctic drilling in pristine areas
• Tar sands in northern Canada
• Natural gas:
• Burning of natural gas releases CO2
• Chemical pollution of ground water from fracking in USA and
Canada
• Increased number and severity of earthquakes (Oklahoma
surpassed California in seismic activity)
What to do about disasters?
•Vertical approach
• Send soldiers for emergency operations, application of
science (e.g., better technologies, forecast)
•Horizontal approach
• Solve societal factors as elements of vulnerability
Does the
world need
nuclear
energy?
https://www.ted.com/talks/stewart_bra
nd_mark_z_jacobson_debate_does_the
_world_need_nuclear_energy