TERRORISM
Lucie Konečná
GLCb2026 Africas Contemporary Security
Challenges
06/03/2024
Terrorism - Definition and Typology
• Peter Waldmann - Terrorist Calculus:
a) Violent act (or threat to commit it)
b) intended strong emotional reactior
(fear in the enemy, positive
emotions in sympathizers)
c) subsequent certain reaction
(hasty panic-dictated protective
and retaliatory measures, but also
active assistance in the combat
effort)
Table 1. Frequencies of definitional elements in 109 definitions of terrorism
Element Frequency %
1 Violence, force 83.5
2 Political 65
3 Fear, terror emphasised 51
4 Threat 47
5 (Psychological) effects and (anticipated) reactions 41.5
a Victim - target differentiation 37.5
7 Purposive, planned, systematic, organised action 32
8 Method of combat, strategy, tactic 30.5
9 Extranormahiy, in breach of accepted rules, without humanitarian constraints 30
10 Coercion, extortion, induction of compliance 28
11 Publicity aspect 21.5
12 Arbitrariness; impersonal, random character; indiscrimination 21
13 Civilians, noncombatants, neutrals, outsiders as victims 17.5
14 Intimidation 17
15 Innocence of victims emphasised 15.5
16 Group, movement, organisation as perpetrator 14
17 Symbolic aspect, demonstration Lo oLhers 13.5
IS Jriculcul ability, unpredictability, unexpectedness of occurrence of violence 0
19 Clandestine, covert nature 9
20 Repetitiveness; serial or campaign character of violence 7
21 Criminal 6
22 Demands made on third parlies 4
Terrorism - Definition and Typology
„Terrorism is the use of aggressive and excessive violence (or the threat of such
violence) that is planned with the dominant purpose of sending a serious
intimidating message to a significantly larger number of people (the target
audience) than just those who are directly harmed by the primary violent acts or
threats." M. Mares
David Rapaport: The Anarchist wave (1878-1919), the Anti-Colonial wave (the
1920s-early 1960s), the New Left wave (mid-1960s-1990s), and the Religious
wave (1995-?).
Typology Mares - the ultra-left, ultra-right, ethnic and territorial, religious,
ecological, criminal, psychopathological, single-issue.
SchlTlid! There are many types of terrorism, the most prominent ones being:
* single-issue terrorism;
* lone wolf/actor terrorism
* vigilante terrorism;
* separatist (ethno -nati onal i st) terrori s m;
* left-wing terrorism;
* right-wing terrorism;
* religious terrorism;
* cyber-terrorism,
* chemical.. Biological, Radiological and Nuclear ( C B R N ) terrorism;
* state (or regime} terrorism.2 3
Trends of Contemporary Terrorism
• 2007-2022 - number of terrorist attack?
• Violent conflicts the main driver of terrorism, 97% of terrorist attacks in 2022
took place in a country where is an ongoing conflict.
• The worst situation is in the Sahel, 48% of all victims, the worst situation in Mali,
Burkina Faso and Niger. Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA), Jamaat Nusrat AlIslam
wal Muslimeen (JNIM).
• Improvement in Nigeria (Boko Haram)
• IS the deadliest terrorist group (Islamic State - Khorasan Province (ISKP),
Islamic State - Sinai Province (ISSP) and ISWA).
• Three main trends in Africa.
• https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/
2022 SCORECARD: AL QAEDA AND ISIS
AQIM
Est. 2007
i . o o o i / 1
ŤJNIM
Est. 2014
2,000#
H u r r a s a l Din
Est 2018
1,000-3, o o o #
ISIS
Est. 2013
#6,000-10,000
ISKP
Est. 2015
#1,500-4,000
ISGS
Est. 2015
Unknown #
t l S W A P
Est. 2015
3,000-5,000#
t l S C A P
Est. 2018
Unknown #
ISM
Est 2022
é200-400
Trajectory
t Rapidly Stre ngthe ning
Strengthening
— Maintaining
% We ake ning
® Al Qaeda Affiliate
Islamic State Branch
Katherine Zimmerman and Kate Chesnutt
Fighter estimates derived from the 2020 US State Department
Country Reports on Terrorism and UN ISIL (Da'esh) and
Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee Monitoring Team reports.
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Trends of
Contemporary
Terrorism -
Africa
Uqba ibn Nafi Brigad
Al-Shabaab
Allied Democratic Froces
Ansar al-Sunna/Ahlu Sunnah
wa Jama'a
Boko Haram
JNIM
ISGS
ISWA/ISWAP
Trends of Contemporary Terrorism
RANK
RANK COUNTRY SCORE CHANGE
1 4ft Afghanistan 3.622 «-+
2 4ft Burkina Faso 3.564 T 2
3 1ft Somalia 3.463 *—•
4 41 Mali 3.412 T 3
5 4ft Syria 8.1 Gl T 1
e <ft Pakistan 3.1 SO T 3
7 1V liaq 8.189 I S
8 11 Nigeria 8.065 i 3
9 4ft Myanmar (Burma) 7.977 I 1
10 1 ft Niger 7.616 1 2
11 4 ft Cameroon 7.347 11
12 4 ft Mozambique 7330 i 1
13 1 ft India 7.175 «-»
14 4
b Democratic Republic
of the Congo
6.372 1 2
15 < ft Colombia 6.63/ 11
16 4• Egypt 6.632 i l
17 4• Chile 6.619 T 1
18 ( ft Philippines 6.328 11
19 1• Chad 6.168 «-+
20 < ft Kenya 6.153 «—•
21 4 ft Iran 5.688 1 5
22 ft Yemen 5.615 i l
23 4 Türkiye 5.600 «-»
24 4 ft Indonesia 5.502 *—•
25 ft Israel 5.489 I 5
26 4 ft Thailand 5.430 14
27 ft Togo 4.915 T 49
28 1ft Benin 4.840 1 23
Trends of Contemporary Terrorism
DESCRIPTION
1 C O U N T R Y PAKISTAN
D A T E 2/2/22
P R O V I N C E BALOCHISTAN PROVINCE D E A T H S 195
BALOCHISTAN LIBERATION !
Gunmen bombed and shot at two Frontier Corps buildings in a coordinated attack.
G R O U P
ARMY (BLA)
2 C O U N T R Y SYRIA
D A T E 20/1/22
PROVINCE
A L - H A S A K A H
G O V ERNO RATE
G R O U P ISLAMIC STATE (IS)
D E A T H S 154
At least 200 assailants attacked Al-Sina prison, driving two explosive-ladens truck
bombs into the outside wall of the prison before gunmen then stormed the facility
- as a riot took place inside. The attack lasted ten days until the Syrian Democratic
Forces (SFD)announced they had regained control of the prison. At least 154 SDF
members were killed. Islamic State {IS) claimed responsibility for the attack.
3 C O U N T R Y SOMALIA
D A T E 29/10/22
R E G O N BANAADIR REGION
G R O U P A L - S H A B A A B
D E A T H S 120 Two car bombs killed at least 120 people and wounded 300 outside the education
. ministry building. AI Shaba a b claimed responsibility for the attack saying that the
ministry was responsible for a 'war o n minds' that has removed Islam from schools
and recruits students into militias.
4 C O U N T R Y BURKINA FASO
D A T E 12/6/22
PROVINCE SAHEL REGION
.:
UNKNOWN - JIHADISTS
D E A T H S 116
... Gunmen killed at least 116 civilians in an attack on a village. No group had claimed
responsibility at the time of writing, but jihadists operate in the area.
5 C O U N T R Y MALI . : MOPTI REGION D E A T H S 110
Gunmen killed at least 110 civilians in attacks on several villages. No group had
claimed the attach at the time of writing, but jihadists operate in the region.
D A T E 19/6/22 UNKNOWN - JIHADISTS
D E A T H S 110
Gunmen killed at least 110 civilians in attacks on several villages. No group had
claimed the attach at the time of writing, but jihadists operate in the region.
6 C O U N T R Y MALI R E G I O N G A O REGION D E A T H S 100 Gunmen killed approximately 100 Jamaal Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen [JNIM)
fighters in G a o region. The battle lasted for approximately 24 hours and local
media outlets said that there were casualties on both sides. Islamic State (IS)
claimed responsibility attributing the attack to its'Sahel Province'.D A T E 7/12/22 G R O U P ISLAMIC STATE (IS)
Gunmen killed approximately 100 Jamaal Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen [JNIM)
fighters in G a o region. The battle lasted for approximately 24 hours and local
media outlets said that there were casualties on both sides. Islamic State (IS)
claimed responsibility attributing the attack to its'Sahel Province'.
7 C O U N T R Y S O M A L I A R E G I O N HIRSHABELLE STATE D E A T H S 59
Gunmen killed an unspecified number of Burundian soldiers during an attack
on an African Union. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack, claiming
D A T E 3/5/22 G R O U P A L - S H A B A A B
to have killed 59 soldiers, but authorities had not released details on casualty
numbers at the time of writing.
8 C O U N T R Y PAKISTAN
„ „ r . PAKHTUNKHWA
K L j U I s P R O V I N C E D E A T H S 56 A suicide bombing killed at least 56 people and injured over 190 others in
D A T E 4/3/22
r - r | | p ISLAMIC STATE K
H O R A S A N PROVINCE
an attack on a Shia mosque. Islamic State - Khorasan Province CISK) claimed
responsibility.
9 C O U N T R Y AFGHANISTAN . : KABUL PROVINCE D E A T H S 50 A bomb killed more than 50 civilians and wounded an unspecified number of
others at a mosque. No individual or group had claimed responsibility for the
attack at the time of writing, but based on the target, tactic, and location. Islamic
State • Khorasan Province (ISK) was probably responsible.D A T E 29/4/22
n p n u p ISLAMIC STATE KHORASAN
PROVINCE
A bomb killed more than 50 civilians and wounded an unspecified number of
others at a mosque. No individual or group had claimed responsibility for the
attack at the time of writing, but based on the target, tactic, and location. Islamic
State • Khorasan Province (ISK) was probably responsible.
10 C O U N T R Y AFGHANISTAN . : BALKH PROVINCE D E A T H S 50 A bomb killed 5 0 civilians and wounded at least 100 more in an attack on
a mosque during prayers. Islamic State - Khorasan province (ISK) claimed
responsibility.D A T E 21/4/22
G R O U P l&LAMIC S T A T E -
J
' L u h
KHORASAN PROVINCE
A bomb killed 5 0 civilians and wounded at least 100 more in an attack on
a mosque during prayers. Islamic State - Khorasan province (ISK) claimed
responsibility.
Deadliest Groups 2022
Rank ORGANISATION DEATHS ATTACKS INJURED
Islamic State (IS) 1045 410 644
Al-Shabaab 734 315 1016
Islamic State - Khorasan Piovince (ISK) 493 141 832
Jamaat Nusrat Al-lslam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) 279 77 215
Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLAJ 233 3 0 113
6 Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) 219 65 118
7 £ioko Ha ram 204 64 51
8 Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) 137 9 0 187
Islamic State - Sinai Province 71 27 32
10 Indigenous People of Biafra (IP06) 57 4 0 16
Trends of Contemporary Terrorism
FIGURE 1.3
Largest decreases in deaths from terrorism, 2021-2022
Afghanistan had the largest decrease in the number of deaths from terrorism, reversing three years of consecutive increases.
-900 -flGG
1,000 Afghanistan
Niger Iraq Nigeria Democratic Colombia Syria India Philippines Yemen
Republic of
the Congo
Trends of Contemporary Terrorism
FIGURE 1.4
Largest increases In deaths from terrorism, 2021-2022
Deaths from terrorism in Pakistan more than doubled between 2021 and 2022.
4 0 0
3 5 0
3 0 0
3T6
2 5 0
£ 2 0 0
w
O
< 1 5 0 -
X
o
1 0 0
5 0
0
94 8 9
Burkina
Faso
Pakistan Mali
Source: Dragonfly Terr oris rmTracker; IEP calculations
65
39
65
39
mmmm
( B u r m a )
Trends of Contemporary Terrorism
20: 6,000
Islamic State (IS), Al-Shabaab, Taliban
and Jamaat Nusrat Al-lslam wal Muslimeen =
3,364 (47% of all victims).
g 4,000
at
a.
at
Islamic State
™ T h e Taliban
— J N I M
—
A l - S h a b a a b
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Trends of Contemporary Terrorism 2022
Islamic State (IS), Al-Shabaab, Jamaat
Nusrat Al-lslam wal Muslimeen and the
Balochistan Liberation Army.
3,129 (47% of all victims).
Attacks and deaths by Islamic State and its
affiliates, 2021-2022
Islamic Stale (IS) were the deadliest of the IS branches for the
second consecutive year.
Group
2021 2022
Group
Attacks Deaths Attacks Deaths
Islamic State Khorasan
Province
190 5 4 3 141 4 9 8
Islamic State Sinai
Province
IS 23 27 71
Islamic State (IS) 537 9 3 0 410 1,045
Islamic State West
Africa [ISWA)
120 692 65 219
4 , 0 0 0 A
I s l a m i c S t a t e
a I - S h a b a a b
J N I M
B L A
a
a
LU
Z 2 . 0 0 0
0
2 0 0 7 2010 2013 2016 2019 2 0 2 2
Trends in Sahel
• Three types of terrorist groups in the Sahel - international, local with ethnicnationalist-religious
overtones and local arising as a reaction to a certain
problem (Dan Nan Ambassagou Association, Koglweogos).
• Factors affecting the success of TG in the Sahel: rapid population growth, lack
of water and food, political instability, corruption, weakness of the security
apparatus, terrain and porous borders, poverty, etc
Incidents and deaths from terrorism in the Sahel, 2007-2021
Both incidents and deaths increased by well over 1,000 per cent from 2 0 0 7 to 2021.
Incidents Deaths
750
2,000 -
500
1,000
250
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
SourcG: Dragonfly TorrorismTrackGr, IEP calculations
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
BOX 3.1
T h e S a h e l
Definitions of the Sahel vary. In this analysis, the Sahel
region denotes the semi-arid region of western and
north-central Africa, which comprises parts of ten
countries:
Burkina Faso,
Cameroon,
Chad,
The Gambia,
Guinea,
Mali,
Mauritania,
Niger,
Nigeria
Senegal.
Case Study: Boko Haram
Nigeria: Poverty headcount rate, percent of population
Percent of the Population
I I 1-20
• 21-«
s i - s o
81-100
• WA
Source NBS 2018/19 Nigerian Living Standards Survey
Poice
National Assembly
Local government councillors
Govern me nt officials
State Assembl/ members
State governors and their officials
Local government chairpersons and
officials
Judges and magistrates
President and officials in his office
11% 24'
40% 34% *2
55% 3?% -Z
54% 40% i
54^ 40% éI
53% 41% I
52% 42%
51% 43% 2
43% 47%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
i Most/All of them •Some of them • None of them
Case Study: Boko Haram
• Factors influencing the creation of BH - high level of corruption, poverty, nontransparency,
unemployment, corruption of the elites, social inequalities, lack of
national awareness, weak security apparatus, etc.
• The Rise of Boko Haram - Mauduguri 2001 - Mohammed Yusuf.
• Jama'atu Ahlis Sünna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad - (Boko Haram - Hausa language).
• Organization structure and ideology.
• Abubakar Shekau (2009) - violent activity, wide spectrum of activity, Sambisa.
• Khalid Barnawi -Ansaru (2012) x Abu Musab al-Barnawi - ISWAP (2015/2016).
• International links to the Islamic State and al-Qaeda.
• Bakura Doro a Bakura Sa'alaba
Case Study: Boko Haram
Boko Haram's impact on Nigeria
State of
emergency
Major
attacks
this year
Reputedly
contro fleet
by Boko Haram
NIGER
Fighters
present
Gamboru Ngala
Y O B E
Maiduguri
D a m b o a BORNO
Ä s E w o z a
States
applying
shah a law
C H A D
Lake
Chad
Port H a r c o u r t
100 km
C A M E R O O N
10,000
people killed by Boko
Haram since 2009
• 6 5 0 , 0 0 0
people displaced
in Borno, Yobe,
Adamawa j*HRP
Anschläge der Boko Haram
T S C H A D
BFRLlNI R Z£ITUKGMN|A « O l l i . QUELLE: LA TIMES
Thank you for your
attention