URBANISATION AND
LAND ISSUES
Lucie Konečná
GLCb2026 Africas Contemporary Security
Challenges
3/4/2024
Urbanisation
Urbanization is the steady increase in the number of people living in cities or
urban centers.
- Urbanization: share of population that live in urb areas.
- Urban Growth: refers to the overall growth in the population that lives in
cities.
The definition of what qualifies a town as an urban centre differs from one
country to another depending on the population criteria used.
It is predicted that the world's urban population will rise from the current 58
percent to 75 percent'~i_. . r\r\I- r\
7 0 0 0 - ,
6 0 0 0
I 5 0 0 0 -I
4 O O 0
& 3 D O O
i
2 0 0 D
1 0 0 0
Urban
Rural
1 9 5 0
1 1 1 1 1
i 9 6 0 1 9 7 0 i o e o
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 T T
1 0 O 0 ZOOO 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 * 3 2 0 5 O
F i g u r e 1 . Urban and ruralpapulation of the wrld, 1950 2050(Source: UNDESA, 2014)
Scientific Theories of Urbanization
A) The Theory of Self-Generated Urbanisation
B) Modernization Theory
C) Dependency/World-System Theory
D) Theory of Urban Bias
• Van den Berg et al. - A Study od Growth and Decline —• 4 phases of
urbanization: a) Urbanization
b) Suburbanization
c) Deurbanization x reurbanization
Urbanisation in Africa
1950 1980 2000 2015 2050
Sub-Saharan
Africa
10.7 22.4 30.8 37.9 54.8
Africa 14.0 26.7 34.5 40.4 55.9
Eastern Africa 5.6 14.5 20.6 25.6 43.6
Middle Africa 14.0 27.5 36.8 44 60.8
Northern Africa 26.0 41.3 48.4 51.6 63.3
Southern Africa 37.7 44.7 53.8 61.6 74.3
Western Africa 8.4 23.6 34.7 45.1 62.7
African Megacities
A megacity is a very large city, typically with a population of more than 10 million
people.
A population density of 2,000 per square kilometer.
2100
#1: KINSHASA - 5BM
»i: N UM BAI - S7M
»3: LAGOS - 57M
Rank Population (2100) City Country
#1 88.3 million Lagos Nigéria
#2 83.5 million Kinshasa DRC
#5 75.7 TiLiC- Dar Es SaLaam Tanzánia
#4 67.2 million Mumbai India
#5 57.3 million Delhi India
#6 56.6 miLlion Khartoum Sudan
#7 56.1 rriLlior Niamey Niger
#8 54.3 miLlion Dhaka Bangladesh
#9 52.4 miLlion Kolkata India
#10 50.3 miLlion Kabul Afghánistán
#11 49.1 miLlion Karachi Pakistan
#12 46.7 miLLion Mairobi Kenya
#13 41.4 miLLion LiLongwe MaLawi
#14 40.9 miLlion BLantyre City Malawi
#15 40.5 rriLlior Cairo Egypt
#16 40.1 miLLion KampaLa Uganda
New Trend - Purpose-Built National
Capitals?
• Overpopulation vs. Conflict
• Case of Nigeria (1991), Tanzania (1996), Ivory Coast (1983), and Burundi
(2018)
Negative Effects of Urbanization in
A f rjpo
a) Economic Dimension #VI I I U C 4
• Severe shortage of affordable housing in areas
• Household mortgage debt
• Increasing unemployment
• Economic losses in tourism areas due to degraded landscape scenery
• A higher dependence on imported food
• Higher infrastructure and public service costs, such as water supply, sanitation,
electricity, public transport, waste management, policing and other services
b) Planning Laws and Policy Dimensions
• Lack of public transport, poorer connectivity, traffic congestion
• Unplanned growth and un-coordinated development
• Unequal distribution of public amenities
• Formation of dormitory towns (makes provision of services and infrastructure difficult and costly)
Negative Effects of Urbanization in
c) Environmental Dimension ITI Ool
Loss of vegetation (Habitat loss for fauna and flora or irreversible damage to local ecosystems) and biodiversity
Increased (air, noise, light) pollution, water pollution and alteration of the hydrological properties of the water
Loss of productive agricultural land leading to higher dependence on imported food
Energy and climate change (due to higher energy consumption and higher greenhouse gas emissions per individual)
Environmental impacts through transformation, degradation and fragmentation of urban areas and change in perception of the landscape
d) Social Dimension
Social effects such poverty, lack of opportunities, psychological problems, alcoholism, drugs, crime, violence and other irregular
behaviors, limiting the quality of life, reduced community ties, missing cultural identity, loss of rural heritage.
Higher costs for transport
Mobility issues such as traffic congestion
Reduction in social interaction
Car dependency
Public health issues
A reduction in food production and self-sufficiency
Slumization
„The United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) defines a slum as an
urban area with lack of basic services (sanitation, potable water, electricity), substandard
housing, overcrowding, unhealthy and hazardous locations, insecure tenure, and social
exclusion."
Share of urban population living in slums, 2018 BSBQ
Aslum household is defined as a group of individuals living under the same roof lacking one or
more of the following conditions: access to improved water, access to improved sanitation,
sufficient living area, and durability of housing.
No data 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Source: UN-HABITAT [via World Bank) OurWorldlnData.org/urbanization • C C BY
Q 1 1 i m o i n Q A o n H https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_slums_
O l U l l l b III O A A c U l U n_South_Africa
Namibia
ff
• ~"Jt
JP'li
* - 1.
tmm tM .* j -«% •
r
ft -SL ifc
Slums in Angola
and Zambia
Slums in Kenya
and Nigeria
Land Issues Among Population
White vs. Black people
- Land reforms in SA - 1996 (87% owned by White), 2012 (67% owned by White),
1997 White Paperon Land Reform, 2011 Green Paper on Land Reform, since 2017
attempts of Land Expropriation without Compensation (LEWC).
- The number of farmers of European descent had decreased by one third since
1997. 2001 - Committee of inquiry into Farm Attacks.
- Creation of private armed patrols - „Farmwatch"
- Protests in Bloemfontein 2017, murder of Klapmuts farmer Joubert Conradie #BlackMonday
convoy, Violence in Senekal 2020.
- Land reforms in Namibia - "Willing buyer, willing seller" principle applies, Land
Reform Act of 1995 - three pillars, 2004 land value tax.
- Land reforms in Zimbabwe - Lancaster House Agreement 1980, Zimbabwean
Land Acquisition Act of 1992, 2005 - Constitutional amendment Fast Track Zimbabwe
National Liberation War Veterans Association (ZNLWVA).
Farmer vs. Pastoral conflicts
- Fulani in the Sahel
- Laikipia plateau, Turkana, etc.
- Agogo conflict
Land Issues Among Population
FICrUKh' I- TRHNIJS ]N F A R M F R - H F K I J H R V I O l . F N C F IN W F S T A N D C'F,NT R A I , A F R I t : A
3,000
2,500
2,000
1.000
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Nigeria Mali Burkina Faso
Nt?le; Figures exclude events attributed to violent extremist groups.
DJILI Source: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
2017 2018 2019 2020
Other Countries
Land Issues Among Population
FIGURE 2. FARMER-HERDER CLASHES IN WEST AND CENTRAL AFRICA FIGURE 3. CHANGING LAND COVER IN WEST A N D CENTRAL AFRICA
2010 Land Cover
(Available imagery)
X Violent Events (Protected Parks • Body ofWater Note: Maps exclude events attributed to violent extremist groups.
Dora Source Aimed Conflict LocaiLDrs* Event Data Project
| Grasslands
| Shrublands
| Croplands
Forests
Cities
Data Source: Copernicus Global Land Service (2010,2019)
Territorial Disputes among States
PARTITION
OF A F R I C A
1ÖÖ5-1914
Spanish
M o r o c c o _
'Algeria
(lorocco |-pr j
Rio De uro
Colonial Powers
I I British
Gambia (Br.)
P o r t Guinea
Sierra Leone
(Br.) Liberia
French
German
Portuguese
Italian
Belgian
Spanish
Independent
Gold coast
(Br.) TOGO
Eritrea (It.)
French Somaliland
ritish
Somaliland
Italian
Somaliland
(Ger.)
Rio Muni
(sp.)
Ca bin da
(Port.)
German
Southwest
Africa
British
East Africa
rman East Africa
o z a m - / Madagascar
^ue
\J (Fr.)
Union of I
South Africa (Br.)
(Port.)
orange Free
State (Br.)
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ETHIOPIA
Red Sea
100 km •«-
JjWikro
claimed by Ethiopia but awarded to Eritrea
claimed by Eritrea but awarded to Ethiopia
e e e - a r c h U h l iI n t e r n a t i o n a l B o u n d a r i e s F l e e *
Bureu
ERITREAN-ETHIOPIAN W A R
Separatism
Autonomism - territorial autonomy within the state (certain degree of selfgovernance
and independence within a larger political entity).
Secessionism - obtaining an independent status for a certain part of the
territory
Seperatism - in general term for any independence/separation; specifically:
secession of several territories and union in a newly created territory with a
certain status
Irredentism - incorporation of a part of a territory into a n n t h o r
^ v i c t i n n o n t i t w
Religion
in
EthiopiaCase Study of Ogaden
2007 Census
Data
Christian Majority/Plurality
• Over 90%
• 80-90%
• 70-79.9%
• 45-49.9%
Muslim Majority
• Over 95%
• 70-79.9%
• 60-69.9%
Thank you for your
attention