WEAKENING OF THE
STATE
Lucie Konečná
GLCb2026 Africas Contemporary Security
Challenges
27/3/2024
State Components and State Types
The state as a person of international law should possess the following
qualifications:
- a) a permanent population;
- b ) a defined territory;
- c) government;
- d) capacity to enter into relations with the other states
(Convention on Rights and Duties of States 1933)
Typology of states:
1. Superpowers
2. (Regional) Powers
3. „Normal" states
4. Microstates
5. Dependent states and territories
6. Failed states
Position of States in the International
System/Polarity
• Polarity expresses the number of autonomous centers of power and is a
function of the distribution of power among only the most important actors
1. Unipolarity
2. Bipolarity
3. Tripolarity
4. Multipolarity
5. Hyperpolarity (total symmetric desintegration of power)
6. „Zero-polarity" (total cooperation)
Position of States in the International
System/Alliance
Security alliance is „formal agreement between two or more actors (usually states)
to cooperate together on perceived mutual security issues. By allying
themselves together it is anticipated that security will be increased in one,
some or all of the following dimensions:
1. By joining an alliance system of deterrence will be established or strengthened;
2. By joining an alliance a defence pact will operate in the event of war;
3. By joining an alliance some or all the actors will be precluded from joining other
alliances" (Evans, Newnham 1998: 15).
Temporally - Permanent
Symmetric - Asymmetric
Single-Issue - Multi-issue
Limited - General
Efficient - Non-Efficient
Successful - Unsuccessful
Position of States in the International
System/ Balancing and
Balancing Allying with others against the prevailing threat.
Bandwagoning Alignment with the source of danger.
1. Balancing is more common than bandwagoning.
2. The stronger the state, the greater its tendency to
balance. Weak state will balance against other weak
states but may bandwagon when threatened by
great powers.
3. The greater the probability of allied support, the
greater the tendency to balance. When adequate
allied support is certain, however, the tendency for
free-riding or buck-passing increases.
4. The more unalterably aggressive a state is perceived
to be, the greater the tendency for other to balance
against it.
5. In wartime, the closer one side is to victory, the
greater the tendency for other to bandwagon with it
(Walt 2009: 102)
Strategies for Ensuring Security
Schroeder (1994): „Do all states, or virtually all, or all that really count, actually
resort to self-help? —• in the majority of instances, they have NOT!
four possible strategies
1. balancing - as a form of self-help
2. bandwagoning - joining the stronger side for the sake of protection and
payoffs,
3. transcending - to solve the problem, end the threat and prevent its recurrence
through some institutional arrangement
4. hiding from threats - ignoring the threat / declaring neutrality / withdraw into
isolation /assuming a purely defensive position...
the prevalence of balancing in international politics not backed up by evidence
Functions of the State
• The concept of the state emerged from a social contract
theory, where inhabitants agreed to delegate certain
rights and powers to a governing body in exchange for
protection and the facilitation of societal order. This
mutual agreement forms the basis of the state's authority
and its responsibilities towards its citizens.
• The only legitimate monopoly on violence.
• Basic functions according to Zartman:
a) state as a sovereign authority (law and order)
b) state as an institution (good governance)
c) state as a guarantor of security (domestic peace)
• Robert I. Rotberg: state is an instrument for providing
political goods to citizens. Three Dimensions:
a) Political (e.g. effective rule of law,
political freedom)
b) Security (state's monopoly on the
use of violence)
c) Economic (economic
opportunities, education, etc.)
Reasons for Weakening and Collapse
• „ The collapse of the state occurs in a situation where the state is no longer able
to provide its citizens with positive political goods and gradually loses its
legitimacy in the eyes of citizens.11
(Rotberg 2002)
• Rotberg - so-called Indicators of Failure:
a) Political Indicators (non-functioning democracy, subordination of
legislation and judiciary to the executive, only privileged groups can use all
state services, etc.)
b) Economic Indicators (declining income of the population, rising
unemployment, poor education and health system experiencing
deficiencies (medicines, textbooks), lack of fuel, corruption, etc.
c) Security Indicators/Level of violence (increasing levels of violence due
to skirmishes, hostilities or civil war; decreasing level of security; rising crime
rates and civilian casualties in conflicts)
• Daniel C. Esty - three indicators, their fulfillment leads to collapse: closed
domestic market, high infant mortality rate and undemocratic establishment.
Reasons for Weakening and Collapse
• Zartman's so-called typical collapse scenario in Africa:
1. long-term ruling regime unable to meet the needs of different groups
within society
2. newly dried up resources (reasons either exogenous or through internal
waste and corruption)
3. social and ethnic groups feel neglected
4. atmosphere of discontent and opposition speaks out against the regime >
intensification of repression
5. sometimes a military regime is imposed; accompanied by martial law and
escalating repressions
6. the final stage of the collapse of the state
• The final stage of collapse is typically characterized by: central government
loses its power base, power devolves to the peripheries, government
malfunctions by avoiding necessary but difficult choices, government practice
only defensive politics, centre loses control over its own state agents.
Typology According to Rotberg
Strong States - provide all services, have a good GDP, Human Development
Index, rule of law prevails, courts are independent, ensure political and civil
liberties, low level of crime, etc.
Weak States - mostly have linguistic, religious, or ethnic tensions (not violent),
crime is rising, infrastructure is poor, GDP and the economy is declining or low,
high levels of corruption which continue to grow, etc.
Failing States - transitional phase, the beginning of violence across various
armed factions (the deterioration of other indicators such as the drop in GDP, the
increasing level of corruption, the growing crime rate etc.)
Failed States - various armed factions fighting for power, high levels of violence
and crime, huge levels of corruption, destroyed infrastructure, politicized military,
declining GDP, economic opportunities only for the privileged, etc.
Collapsed States - an extreme version of failed state (vacuum of authority,
services are mediated privately, some not at all, the rule of the strong, not of law,
territory is divided among VNSAs,
Fund for Peace - Fragile State Index
*i FRAGILE
STATES
INDEX
III FUND FOR PEACE
© 2024 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap
Copyright (C) 2023 - The Fund for Peace
Sustainabi« Stable Warning Alert
o.o 120.0
Fund for Peace - Fragile State Index
Countryl Rank
Somalia
Yemen
1st
2nd
3rd
5th
6 f
7th
B t -
9th
11th
12th
13th
1 - - -
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
22-r
2 1 s t
2 1 s t
2 1 s t
25th
111.9
108.9
108.5
107.2
107.1
106.6
106.2
105.7
104.6
102.9
100.4
100.2
99.5
98.5
98.0
96.9
96.1
95.9
94.5
94.2
94.0
94.0
94.0
93.4
91.8
9.5
8.6
9.9
8.8
9.4
9.7
8.3
8.0
8.7
6.8
8.6
9.1
9.6
8.7
9.0
8.4
9.5
10.0
6.0
7.8
9.3
7.0
8.1
8.3
7.3
10.0
9.9
9.2
9.6
9.9
8.7
9.6
9.4
9.5
9.7
9.3
9.0
7.2
10.0
9 6
10.0
9.3
8.0
8.4
8.5
8.2
6.3
9.3
9.6
9 6
8.7
8.8
8.6
9.4
9.1
8.3
9.3
8.1
8.1
5.5
8.9
9.7
8.5
9.4
8.6
5.9
7.3
6.8
8.7
6.7
5.8
7.4
8.1
7.7
8.1
9.5
9.9
8.5
8.1
9.6
9.6
9.3
8.2
8.4
8.9
6.8
7.6
7.5
8.0
8.8
9.2
8.9
8.5
7.1
8.8
7.2
7.7
6.0
6.4
9 2
9.1
7.9
8.6
8.4
6.5
8.2
8.5
9.6
8.7
9.2
7.5
7.3
7.2
7.5
8 1
7.8
6.4
4.9
7.9
7.2
8.3
9.2
7.4
7.8
6.6
8.6
6.4
6.5
9.6
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.6
9.7
9.3
9.0
10.0
8.6
10.0
9.6
9.8
8.7
9.1
8.9
9.4
8 8
8.8
8.0
7.3
8.1
8.0
8.6
9.7
8.3
9.5
5.8
9.0 10.0
9.6 9.6
8.7 9.7
9.3 9.7
9.1 7.4
8.7 9.2
9.2 8.8
9.1 9.3
8.4 9.5
8.7 8.8
8.8 9.8
9.3 7.0
7.5 8.8
7.3 8.8
8.6 9.6
7.8 8.7
9.3 6.0
7.8 7.3
9.1 7.7
8.6 8.7
7.0 8.3
7.2 9.6
7.3 9.0
6.7 8.9
7.1 5.8
9.0
9.6
10.0
9.8
9.1
8.6
9.6
9.5
9.0
7.7
9.5
9.2
8.5
6.2
6.4
7.6
7.5
10.0
6.6
8.0
8.2
7.9
8.4
7.9
8.8
9.1
9.2
9.2
9.1
10.0
7.7
8.1
9.4
7.9
9.6
8.1
7.3
9.5
7.2
5.6
6.7
9.3
10.0
5.5
7.6
8.7
7.8
6.4
7.4
8.3
South Sudan
Congo Democratic Republic 6.4 9.3
8.0 10.0
8.5 9.4
7.5 9.4
6.2 8.9
7.7 9.1
8.3 9.9
6.2 8.2
6.3 9.3
7.7 8.6
6.3 9.7
6.7 8 2
7.1 8.9
5.0 9.6
8.9 6.4
8.6 9.7
5.2 9.1
7.0 7.4
7.1 7.1
6.9 8.8
5.6 6.6
6.5 7.7
Syria
Afghanistan
Sudan
Central African Republic
Chad
Haiti
Ethiopia
M y a n m a r
Mali
Guinea
Nigeria
Zimbabwe
Libya
Ukraine
Eritrea
Burundi
Burkina Faso
M o z a m b i q u e
Cameroon
Niger
Lebanon
COHESION
INDICATORS
Ik 9
Ci: Security Apparatus
C2: FactionaLized Elites
C3: Group Grievance
ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
•
Ei: Economic Decline
E2: Uneven Economic Development
E3: Human Flight and Brain Drain
POLITICAL
INDICATORS
Pi: State Legitimacy
P2: Public Services
P3: Human Rights and Rule of Law
SOCIAL
AND CROSS-CUTTING INDICATORS
Si: Demographic Pressures
S2: Refugees and IDPs
Xi: External Intervention
FUND FOR PEACE - FRAGILE STATE
INDEX
Characteristics of Failed/Collapsed
States
• Characteristic signs according to the UN General Assembly:
a) Inability of the central government to control state territory, fighting over natural
resources between the central government and local groups
b) Loss of the authority of state institutions, the power struggle between the
central government and other groups (militias, state army, local groups,
religious groups)
c) Dysfunctional economy, high inflation, growth of the shadow economy,
increasing national debt, currency devaluation
d) Increase in illegal emigrants
e) Loss of citizens' influence on the functioning of the state, unbalanced
relationship between citizens and the state
f) Crime, emergence of terrorist training camps, drug trafficking
g) Poverty, hunger, absent or dysfunctional social systems
Typology of Failed States
Jean-Germain Gros - Jailed states are those states where "public authorities
are no longer able or willing to carry out their purpose, i.e., in Hobbes's terms,
the social contract, which nowadays involves more than the preservation of
peace between parts of society and their interests" (Gros 1996: 456-457)
Five types of failed states:
a) Anarchic state
b) Phantom/mirage state
c) Anaemic state
d) Captured state
e) Aborted state
How to Approach Collapsed States?
• Solutions, the UN Approach According to J. Hamre and G. Sullivan:
a) Do nothing
b) Isolate failed/collapsed states
c) Divide into small parts
d) Integrate into a larger entity
e) Establish international authority
f) Provide neighbourhood supervision
g) Help one side of a conflict
h) International response through intervention or other measures
Quasi States and de Facto States
• A state that has internal sovereignty but lacks external sovereignty
• Jochen A. Frowein - De Facto State
• De facto state, para-state, unrecognized state, empirical statehood, quasi-state
• Entities that have the external attributes of the state (state symbols, institutions,
economy, etc.), but lack the defining political characteristics of the state external
sovereignty - international recognition.
• Case of Somaliland
• Scott Pegg - Quasi state + De Facto State
S o m a l i l a n d *>
/
ETHIOPIA <ř*
iNDiAN
OCÍAN
Apprommatt; irea
inhabited by
Somali people
Case Study of Somalia
• Hussein Adam - the predominance of internal factors over external ones:
a) Barre's dictatorial government
b) danism as an ideology - favoring the Darod
c) Repression of educated elites
d) Persecution, brutality, and politics of divide and conquer
e) Negative campaign against the north
f) Foreign aid - the end of the Cold War
• The different colonial history, the independence of Djiboul
the dispersion of Somalis across several states, the overč
underdevelopment of the country, the climate - extreme
droughts.
o 112.0
o 110.0
u
1C3.C
1C-3.G
Case Study of Somalia
OVERALL TREND, 2006-2023:
Somalia
CO CI O l-l CM m in CO Gl o irl CVJ
o o c O i-i H iH H iH 1-1 CVJ CVJ CVJ
o o o O C o o o o o o o o O o O o
CM ( M ( M CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CVJ CVJ CVJ CVJ CVJ
m
CM
o
CM
Rank Total
2023 1st 111.9
2022 2nd 110.5
2021 2nd 110.9
2020 2nd 110.9
2019 2nd 112.3
2013 2nd 113.2
2017 2nd 113.4
2016 1st 114.0
2015 2nd 114.0
2014 2nd 112.6
2013 1st 113.9
2012 1st 114.9
2011 1st 113.4
2010 1st 114.3
2009 1st 114.7
2003 1st 114.2
2007 3rd 111.1
2005 6th 105.9
Thank you for your
attention