Power Station Economics Offshore Wind Capacity MW 3000 Load Factor (Availability) % 38% -30% -15% 0% 15% 30% Annual output TWh 9.99 Gas Price MWh 9986400 Electricity Price kW 3000000 Load Factor Construction time years 4 Discount Rate Project life years 30 Fuel Efficiency 100% Fuel consumed MWh 9986400 NPV 263.8 Gas cost US$/mmbtu 0 US$/MWh 0.00 Convert mmbtu to MWh 3.413 US$=€1 1.13 EIA Estimates €mm Capital Cost US$/kW 3617 10851.1 US$mm 9603 Fixed Cost US$/kW 92.7 278.0 US$mm 246 Variable Costs US$/MWh 0 0.0 US$mm 0 Gas Cost US$/MWh 0.00 0.0 US$mm 0 Carbon output per MWh Tonnes 0.00 Carbon price US$/t 0.00 Corporate Tax Rate 25% Electricity Price US$/MWh 132 €/MWh 117 Capacity Payment US$/kW 0 US$/MWh 132 Project Economics 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 Utilisation 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% Output MWh 0 0 0 0 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 9986400 Price $/MWh 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 132 Revenues $mm 0.0 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 1318.2 Capacity Payment $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex $mm -2712.8 -2712.8 -2712.8 -2712.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total $mm -10851.1 Variable Cost $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fixed Cost $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 Fuel Cost $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cost of Carbon $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Costs $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 -278.0 Operating Cashflow €mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 1040.2 Depreciation 30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 -361.7 Pre-tax profit €mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 678.5 Corporation Tax 25% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 -169.6 Net Income €mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 508.8 Post-tax Cashflow €mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 Net Cashflow €mm -2712.8 -2712.8 -2712.8 -2712.8 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 870.5 Cumulative Net Cashflow -2712.8 -5425.5 -8138.3 -10851.1 -9980.5 -9110.0 -8239.4 -7368.9 -6498.4 -5627.8 -4757.3 -3886.7 -3016.2 -2145.6 -1275.1 -404.6 466.0 1336.5 2207.1 3077.6 3948.2 4818.7 5689.2 6559.8 7430.3 8300.9 9171.4 10042.0 10912.5 11783.0 12653.6 13524.1 14394.7 Discount Rate 5.75% Discount Factor 1 1.06 1.12 1.18 1.25 1.32 1.40 1.48 1.56 1.65 1.75 1.85 1.96 2.07 2.19 2.31 2.44 2.59 2.73 2.89 3.06 3.23 3.42 3.61 3.82 4.04 4.27 4.52 4.78 5.05 5.35 5.65 5.98 6.32 Discounted Cashflow €mm -2565.4 -2426.0 -2294.1 -2169.5 658.4 622.6 588.8 556.8 526.5 497.9 470.8 445.3 421.1 398.2 376.5 356.1 336.7 318.4 301.1 284.8 269.3 254.7 240.8 227.7 215.4 203.7 192.6 182.1 172.2 162.9 154.0 145.7 137.7 NPV €mm 263.8 IRR % 6.0% Payback (Years) Breakeven Utilisation Breakeven Gas Price Breakeven Electricity Price Breakeven Carbon Price Discount Rate Cost of Interest 5.2% Tax Rate 25% Cost of Debt 3.9% Cost of Equity 7.6% Share of Debt 50% Share of Equity 50% WACC 5.75% Debt and Interest 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 Cumulative Debt 1356 3308 5336 7442 7732 7163 6571 5956 5317 4654 3964 3248 2504 1731 928 93 -773 -1674 -2610 -3582 -4592 -5641 -6731 -7864 -9041 -10263 -11533 -12853 -14223 -15648 -17127 -18664 -20261 Interest on Debt 53 129 208 290 301 279 256 232 207 181 154 126 97 67 36 4 -30 -65 -102 -139 -179 -220 -262 -306 -352 -399 -449 -500 -554 -609 -667 -727 -789 Total Interest Paid 2284 Capital paid off 5426 7709 Load Factor 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Capacity Payment ##### Sheet/List 2 ##### WACC Cost of Equity Equity market return 10.60% Risk Free Rate 4.60% Beta 0.5 Cost of Equity 7.60% Interest Rate 5.19% Tax Rate 25% Cost of Debt 3.89% WACC 5.75% % Debt 50% % Equity 50% ##### Sheet/List 3 ##### Equity Market Return MSCI World Index % Return 2009 31% 2010 12% 2011 -1% 2012 17% 2013 27% 2014 6% 2015 0% 2016 8% 2017 23% 2018 -8% 2019 28% 2020 17% 2021 22% 2022 -18% Average 11.8% 10yr average 10.6% 5 year average 8.3% Debt Yields Risk Free Return US Treasury 4.61% UK LIBOR 5.37% US AAA 5.19% UK AAA 6.20% Beta and Leverage Analysis Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio Oil/Gas (Integrated) 4 0.98 11.50% Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration) 174 1.26 20.08% Oil/Gas Distribution 23 0.99 71.41% Oilfield Svcs/Equip. 101 1.38 32.60% Power 48 0.73 77.16% Software (Internet) 33 1.55 17.66% Utility (General) 15 0.64 74.18% ##### Sheet/List 4 ##### Capital Costs US$/kW Gas CCGT 978 Onshore Wind 1877 Solar PV 2534 Hydro 3123 Offshore Wind 3617 Coal (USC) 3636 Biomass 4985 Nuclear 5945 Waste 8843 Operating Costs Fixed (LHS) Variable (RHS) Gas CCGT 11 3.5 Solar PV 23.4 0 Onshore Wind 39.7 0 Coal (USC) 42.1 4.6 Offshore Wind 92.7 0 Nuclear 100.3 2.3 Biomass 110 4.2 ##### Sheet/List 5 ##### 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Onshore 21.9% 27.9% 25.8% 28.4% 26.2% 29.3% 23.6% 28.0% 26.7% 26.5% 28.1% 23.2% 27.4% Offshore 30.5% 37.0% 35.8% 39.1% 37.3% 41.5% 36.0% 38.9% 39.9% 40.4% 45.7% 37.4% 40.7% 10yr ave 5yr ave 3 yr ave Onshore 26.7% 26.4% 26.2% Offshore 39.7% 40.8% 41.3% ##### Sheet/List 6 ##### 2.205 Pounds per mmBtu Tonnes per mmbtu Tonnes per MWh Gas 117.0 0.053 0.181 Gasoline 157.2 0.071 0.243 Diesel 161.3 0.073 0.250 Lignite 215.4 0.098 0.333 Coal 228.6 0.104 0.354 Wind 0 Solar 0 ##### Sheet/List 7 ##### Cost Breakdown US$mm Capex 10851 Opex 8063 Cost of Finance 14131 Cost of Finance Total Cashflow 14395 Total Discounted Cashflow 264 Difference 14131