HUMAN ECOLOGY Another approach to the place of humans on the planet Dr Ulrich Loening ex-Director, Centre for Human Ecology, University of Edinburgh, Scotland. Sir Frank Fraser-Darling wrote in 1950, (quoted in Morton Boyd, 1986) that: "...The phenomenon of accelerating devastation and increasing population has, in effect, been inevitable from the moment man began to break ecological climaxes and upset equilibria without allowing them to rebuild... Most of us are not prepared to defer to this final logic, that the very achievement of humanness dooms us, and that civilisation is an ultimate contradiction." Similarly, the Brundtland Report (1987) begins with the idea that: "Humanity's inability to fit its doings into this (nature's) pattern is changing planetary systems, fundamentally." And then: "The next few decades are crucial. The time has come to break out of past patterns. Attempts to maintain social and ecological stability through old approaches to development and environmental protection will increase instability. Security must be sought through change." fjfo 1**® 9 * fr*«0 Beyond the Limits Figure 1-1 World Population Billions of people 1900 2000 1700 1800 World population has been growing exponentially since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. In 1991 the world population growth rate was estimated to be 1.7%, corresponding to a doubling time of 40 years. (Sources: United Nations; D. L ßoeue.) A Short History of America . . . "w(XE EAATmiraw wmTH With Epilogue fwÖRiT QUE SCtľMR» R. Crumb Figure 1. World Grain Production, 1961-2005 24DG 2DDÜ «, 1B0Q § 1200 BOO 400 0 1960 201Q I Million Tons I 160-1 120- SO- 40- Source- FAO, Soh and Prud'homme 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Figure 1: World Fen i lize ľ Use, 1950-2000 Figuře 1. World Exports of Pesticides, 1961-2004 2fl ľ? 1960 1970 1980 1990 200 Ü 2010 Figure 1. World Meat Production, 1961-2005 ** 300 250 ZOO § 150 ■Sť jíl a: FAÜ 1970 1980 1990 20 00 2010 Figure 1. World F i sit Harvest 1950-2003 ISO 120 § 90 É sol- an Source: FAŮ 1950 I9ÖD 1970 1930 1390 2000 2010 Figure 1. World Dil Consumption, 1950-2005 4O0Ö ^^r 3flüO /^^y^^^ = 2Ö0Ü f Mill / 1000 ^y n Source. UN, BP. DDE. fEA. press reports 1 1 t l l 1 1950 I960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Figuře 1. World Electrical Generating Capacity of Nuclear Power Plants. 1960-2005 400 350 300 -g 250 Í 200 h i i= 150 h 100 50 - oL I960 Súlitte: Wúflífwatch íiatsbäsu 1970 193D 1990 2000 2010 Figure 1. World Wind Energy Generating Capacity, 1980-2005 70000 60000 - 50000 ■^i s 40000 I1 30000 20000 -10000 Staaee: BTM ConsuSlr AWEA. EWE A 1930 1H3S mu ms 2000 2D05 Figure I.World Annual Photovoltaic Production, 1980—2005 2000 1500 ÍDOO Source. PVNaws 5QQ 0_ 19S0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Figure 1 . Global Average Land-Ocean Temperature at Earths Surface. 1B8Ü-2ÜÜ5 14.0 L/l ■_■■ a- ÍÁ S 14.4 14.0 13.fi 131: 1880 1905 1930 1S55 Süufte. GÍSS __i_______________. 198Ü 2005 > 9, f**A fí*l S r ^ \ NATURE Driven by solar energy Works in cycles All materials are recycled, there is no waste Competition and Co-operation in ecosystems No great excesses Increases biological diversity Global stability Multiple feed-back controls, mostly negative INDUSTRIAL MANKIND Driven mainly by stored fuel, fossil or biomass Works linearly Resources are consumed to waste Conquest by over-riding natural systems Large excesses Decreases diversity Global changes Little feed-back control, mostly positive ■— "Kan's Ingenuity Can Do Anything TtaPUw TV« Wheel Writing Mítslvwking 7TieArt.V G«fipoweler TfieTdtStop« TdeTViKtin^IW TdeTeJejrífih TheAirpUn« AntiBidtki TlrtLiÄr P^C^p^er Spa« FKgkt s> Jb*±l J **€vr#t rw**"u «c^p What are the rates of change? plot the rates on a time scale of 4000 years from the birth of Christ to the same period into the future; we see how population growth and use of fossil fuels is but a brief episode in human history; likewise most of the other changes. Quote: "The most significant biological event of the present geological era has been the expansion of the human population from a modest and probably fairly stable size of a few million to several billions in only a few thousand years." (Ann Ehrlich. p395) Summary of Human Ecological Principles (Hardin 1985) 1 .We can never do merely one thing. 2.No effects are truly side effects. 3.No system can long survive the effects of unopposed positive feedback. 4.Negative feedback can be a positive boon. 5.The "sanctity of life" must give way before the "sanctity of carrying capacity." 7.Not all elements of the human carrying capacity are expandable. 8.Population growth ultimately makes democracy impossible. 9.Selection dictates the direction of evolution. 10.Every biocide selects for its own failure. 11 .Every human law selects for its own evasion. 12.No inning is the last inning. RENEWABLE Ambient energy Biomasses eg forests soils fisheries biological products Biological diversity if maintained NON-RENEWABLE Fossil fuels Minerals metal ores etc lime phosphates Biological diversity if destroyed Environmental services Ecological controls for stability What has been coming down? Forest cover Soil quality fresh water fish stocks whales habitats, ecosystem health environmental services bio-diversity human diversity GROWTH IN THE WORLD SYSTEM Figure 24 FEEDBACK LOOPS OF POPULATION, CAPITAL, AGRICULTURE, AND POLLUTION ŕ fertility births per year deaths per year desired food per capita \ i ) mortality —""7 agricultural capital industrial output pollution investment industrial capital / investment rate depreciation (-) N average lifetime of capital Some of the interconnections between population and industrial capital operate through agricultural capital, cultivated land, and pollution. Each arrow indicates a causal relationship, which may be immediate or delayed, large or small, positive or negative, depending on the assumptions included in each model run. 91 Greece: quote from Plato: "Contemporary Attica may be described as a mere relic of the original country. There has been a constant movement of soil away from the high ground and what remains is like the skeleton of a body emaciated by disease. All the rich soil has melted away, leaving a country of skin and bone. Originally the mountains of Attica were heavily forested. Fine trees produced timber suitable for roofing the largest buildings; the roofs hewn from this timber are still in existence. The country produced boundless feed for cattle, there are some mountains which had trees not so very long ago, that now have nothing but bee pastures. The annual rainfall was not lost as it is now through being allowed to run over the denuded surface to the sea, it was absorbed by the ground and stored...the drainage from the high ground was collected in this way and discharged into the hollows as springs and rivers with abundant flow and a wide territorial distribution. Shrines remain at the sources of dried up water sources as witness to this." (Th.) Compare with modern quote: "It is important to recognise, too, how tightly linked are the resources of soil, water and forest. Deforestation produces erosion and water pollution and makes run-off erratic, reducing the availability of water and causing more erosion. This process can become irreversible by altering the environment so drastically that reforestation is impossible." (Ehrlich, p278) What has gone up steeply in the last few decades? the human population the consumption of fossil fuels of other resources agricultural activity desertification Pollution and much else