The average global temperature in 2005 was
14.6 degrees Celsius, making it the warmest
year ever recorded on Earth's surface, according
to data from NASA's Goddard Institute of Space
Studies.1
(See Figure 1.) The five warmest years
since recordkeeping began in 1880 have all
occurred since 1998.2
The aver-
age global temperature has risen
nearly 1 degree Celsius in the
past century.3
More than half of that warming--
a rise of 0.6 degrees--has occurred in the past
30 years, meaning that this warming trend is
accelerating.4
In 2005, the average atmospheric carbon
dioxide (CO2) concentration reached 379.6 parts
per million by volume, an increase of 2.6 parts
per million--0.6 percent--over the record high
in 2004.5
(See Figure 2.) Average CO2 concen-
trations have climbed 20 percent since measure-
ments began in 1959. The rise in 2005 represents
the largest annual increase ever recorded.6
Although seemingly small, the rising
temperature threatens to have profound conse-
quences in the years ahead. Already, in Septem-
ber 2005 sea ice in the northern hemisphere
was at its lowest levels in recorded history.7
Greenland's glaciers lost nearly 53 cubic miles
of ice in 2005 alone.8
During the summer, heat
waves kept temperatures above 38 degrees
Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit) for 39 consec-
utive days in Arizona, and much of Europe was
hit with forest fires, followed by torrential rains
and severe flooding.9
Abnormal algal blooms
cost U.S. Gulf Coast residents $3 million a
week in lost revenues from tourism, fisheries,
restaurants, and related activities.10
Likewise,
Kuala Lampur experienced a downturn in the
tourism industry and was forced to shut its
largest harbor as a result of wild fires brought
on by drought and extreme heat.11
Already, climate change is forcing entire
communities to move or risk losing their liveli-
hoods. For example, changing weather patterns
are believed to be responsible for decreasing
rainfall in the Gobi Desert that has helped it
expand by 26,000 square kilometers a year and
forced tens of millions of Chinese farmers to
retreat.12
Inuit natives in communities from
Canada, Greenland, Alaska, and northern Rus-
sia were forced to move northward to follow
prey in 2005 as a result of the warmest winter
on record in the Arctic region.13
There is broad consensus in the scientific
community that the rise in global temperatures
is due to emissions of greenhouse gases such as
CO2--the primary source of which is the burn-
ing of fossil fuels.14
CO2 emissions from fossil
fuels increased a record 4.5 percent in 2004, to
7.57 billion tons. (See Figure 3.) Research that
measures gases present in ancient Antarctic ice
cores has revealed that CO2 levels are now 27
percent higher than at any point up until the
start of the Industrial Revolution.15
The United States, with about 5 percent of the
world's population, accounts for the largest share
of CO2 emissions from human activities--25
percent of global emissions.16
China is the sec-
ond largest emitter, although emissions per per-
son there are far lower than in the United
States.17
The largest sources of U.S. emissions
are coal-burning power plants, followed by
automobiles.18
Globally, transport-sector emis-
sions are growing most rapidly, due to dramatic
rises in car ownership in developing
countries.19
Some experts fear that climate change is
already set in motion and will be difficult to
reverse and that this will lead to more severe
storms, drastic reductions in agricultural
yields, biodiversity loss, and threats to human
health--the effects of which tend to hit lower-
income communities more than richer ones.20
In 2005, efforts to address climate change
globally met with varying degrees of success. To
meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol
to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 8 percent,
Europe launched an Emissions Trading Scheme
in January 2005.21
Although this does not yet
include several carbon-intensive industries or
the transport sector, total CO2 trade in the
inaugural year was worth 9.4 billion euros, and
the volume of CO2 traded reached 799 million
tons.22
While the United States remains outside
the Kyoto Protocol, a growing number of state
and city governments are taking action to
reduce emissions.23
Climate Change Impacts Rise Lauren Sorkin
42 Vital Signs 2006­2007
pp.32,44,118
LINKS
Climate Change Impacts Rise
Vital Signs 2006­2007 43
Global Average Temperature
and Carbon Emissions from
Fossil Fuel Burning, 1950­2005,
and Atmospheric Concentrations
of Carbon Dioxide, 1960­2005
Carbon Temper-
Year Dioxide ature Emissions
(parts per (degrees (bill. tons
mill. by vol.) Celsius) of carbon)
1950 n.a. 13.87 1.63
1955 n.a. 13.89 2.04
1960 316.9 14.01 2.58
1965 320.0 13.90 3.14
1970 325.7 14.02 4.08
1975 331.2 13.94 4.62
1980 338.7 14.16 5.32
1981 339.9 14.22 5.16
1982 341.1 14.03 5.11
1983 342.8 14.25 5.10
1984 344.4 14.07 5.27
1985 345.9 14.03 5.43
1986 347.2 14.12 5.60
1987 348.9 14.27 5.73
1988 351.5 14.30 5.95
1989 352.9 14.19 6.07
1990 354.2 14.37 6.14
1991 355.6 14.32 6.23
1992 356.4 14.14 6.10
1993 357.0 14.14 6.10
1994 358.9 14.25 6.23
1995 360.9 14.37 6.40
1996 362.6 14.25 6.55
1997 363.8 14.40 6.68
1998 366.6 14.56 6.67
1999 368.3 14.33 6.51
2000 369.5 14.32 6.64
2001 371.0 14.47 6.82
2002 373.1 14.55 6.95
2003 375.6 14.52 7.25
2004 377.4 14.48 7.57
2005(prel) 379.6 14.60 n.a.
Source: GISS, BP, IEA, CDIAC, DOE, and
Scripps Inst. of Oceanography.
Figure 1 . Global Average Land-Ocean Temperature at
Earth's Surface,1880­2005
Figure 3. Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning,
1950­2004
PartsperMillionDegreesCelsiusBillionTons
Source: GISS
Source: UN, BP, DOE, IEA
Source: Scripps Inst. Oceanography
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Figure 2. Atmospheric Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide,
1960­2005
1880 1905 1930 1955 1980 2005
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
300
325
350
400
375
13.2
13.6
14.0
14.4
14.8
0
2
4
6
8
Notes
watch Institute, 25 January 2006. For comparison
purposes, there are 159 liters per barrel. A ton con-
tains 1,262 liters of ethanol or 1,136 liters of bio-
diesel. A liter of ethanol contains roughly 68 percent
as much energy as a liter of gasoline, while a liter of
biodiesel contains roughly 87 percent as much as a
liter of diesel.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. Production numbers from ibid.; gasoline consump-
tion U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information
Administration, Petroleum Information Monthly, Feb-
ruary 2006.
5. Berg, op. cit. note 1.
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid.
8. Ibid.
9. Ibid.; National Biodiesel Board, "Biodiesel Production
Soars," press release (Jefferson City, MO: 8 Novem-
ber 2005).
10. "Biofuels and the International Development
Agenda," F.O. Licht's World Ethanol & Biofuels Report,
8 July 2005.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Devel-
opment (OECD), Working Party on Agricultural
Policies and Markets, Agricultural Market Impacts of
Future Growth in the Production of Biofuels (Paris: Feb-
ruary 2006).
14. "Rising Ethanol Prices May Hit Brazilian Flex-fuel
Car Sales," F.O. Licht's World Ethanol & Biofuels
Report, 9 March 2006.
15. Jon Birger, "Wanna Make a Bet on Biofuels?"
Fortune, 31 January 2006.
16. "World Ethanol Production 2005 to be Higher than
Expected," F.O. Licht's World Ethanol & Biofuels
Report, 24 October 2005.
17. Ibid.
18. Eric Martinot et al., Renewables 2005 Global Status
Report (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute,
2005), p. 10.
19. BP, Statistical Review of World Energy (London:
2005).
20. "Biofuels and the International Development
Agenda," op. cit. note 10.
21. Martinot et al., op. cit. note 18.
22. Chris Kraul, "Sweet Source of Growth," Los Angeles
Times, 10 April 2006.
23. "Food Industry Calls for Biodiesel Alternatives,"
Reuters, 4 April 2006; Martin von Lampe,
Agricultural Market Impacts of Future Growth in the
Production of Biofuels (Paris: OECD, 2006), p. 15.
24. "USDA Raises Corn Use Estimate for Fuel Ethanol
Production," F.O. Licht's World Ethanol & Biofuels
Report, 8 March 2006.
25. Worldwatch Institute, "Biofuels for Transportation:
Global Potential and Implications for Sustainable
Agriculture and Energy in the 21st Century,"
prepared for the German Ministry of Food, Agricul-
ture and Consumer Protection in coordination with
the German Agency for Technical Cooperation and
the German Agency of Renewable Resources (Wash-
ington, DC: 2006).
26. "Boom in US Fuel Ethanol Industry Shows No Sign
of Slowing Down," F.O. Licht's World Ethanol & Biofu-
els Report, 21 February 2006.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS RISE (pages 42­43)
1. Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, "Global
Temperature Trends: 2005 Summation," January
2006, at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005, viewed
15 March 2006.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. NASA, "2005 Warmest Year in Over a Century," at
www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_war
mest.html, 24 January 2006, viewed 20 February
2006.
5. Data for 1996­2003 from Timothy Whorf, Scripps
Institution of Oceanography, University of Califor-
nia, La Jolla, CA, e-mail to author, 18 January 2005;
2004­05 data from Dr. Stephen Piper, Carbon
Dioxide Research Group, Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, University of California, La Jolla,
CA, e-mail to author, 13 March 2006.
6. Data for 1959­95 from C. D. Keeling and T. P.
Whorf, "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Record from
Mauna Loa," Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Center, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Uni-
versity of California, La Jolla, CA.
7. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
"Climate of 2005--Annual Report," National
Climatic Data Center, 13 January 2006, at
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/ann/
global.html, viewed 21 March 2006.
8. Jill Hummels, "Greenland's Glaciers Moving Faster,
Losing Mass," press release (Lawrence, KS: Univer-
sity of Kansas, 17 February 2006).
9. Paul R. Epstein and Evan Mills, Climate Change
Futures: Health, Economic and Ecological Dimensions
(Boston, MA: Harvard Medical School, Center for
Health and Global Environment, 2005), p. 11.
10. Ibid.
11. Ibid., p. 101.
132 Vital Signs 2006­2007
Notes
12. Stefan Lovgren, "Climate Change Creating Millions
of `Eco Refugees,' UN Warns," National Geographic
News, 18 November 2005.
13. Doug Struck, "Inuit See Signs in Arctic Thaw,"
Washington Post, 22 March 2006.
14. Data for 2001­05 calculated by Worldwatch with
data from BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy
(London: 2005).
15. Urs Siegenthaler et al., "Stable Carbon Cycle­Climate
Relationship During the Late Pleistocene," Science,
25 November 2005, pp. 1313­17.
16. Elizabeth Kolbert, "Annals of Science: The Climate
of Man," The New Yorker, three-part series, 25 April,
2 May, and 9 May 2005.
17. American Association for the Advancement of Sci-
ence, "Carbon Dioxide Level Highest in 650,000
Years," press release (Washington, DC: 24 Novem-
ber 2005); "Climate Change: The Big Emitters," BBC
News, 4 July 2005.
18. Natural Resources Defense Council, Climate Change:
In-Depth (Washington, DC: 5 January 2005).
19. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook
2004 (Paris: 2004).
20. David Ignatius, "Is It Warm in Here? We Could Be
Ignoring the Biggest Story in Our History," Washing-
ton Post, 18 January 2006; "Global Warming: The
Signs and the Science," PBS Documentary, 2 Novem-
ber 2005.
21. "FACTBOX: Europe's Emissions Trading Scheme,"
Reuters, 28 November 2005.
22. "Lessons Learned in 2005," Point Carbon, 24 Janu-
ary 2006.
23. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Learning
from State Action on Climate Change (Arlington, VA:
March 2006).
WEATHER-RELATED DISASTERS AFFECT MILLIONS
(pages 44­45)
1. Munich Reinsurance Company (Munich Re), Nat-
CatSERVICE, e-mail to author, 19 January 2006.
2. Ibid.
3. Munich Re, Topics Geo Annual Review: Natural Cata-
strophes 2005 (Munich: 2006), p. 7; Munich Re,
Hurricanes--More Intense, More Frequent, More
Expensive (Munich: 2006), p. 4.
4. Munich Re, Hurricanes, op. cit. note 3, p. 4.
5. Ibid., p. 7; Thomas Knutson, "Impact of CO2-
induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity
to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective
Parameterization," Journal of Climate, 15 September
2004, pp. 3477­95.
6. Munich Re, Hurricanes, op. cit. note 3, pp. 7­8;
C. D. Hoyos et al., "Deconvolution of the Factors
Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane
Intensity," Science Express, 16 March 2006.
7. Worldwatch calculation based on Center for
Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED),
EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster
Database, viewed 9 March 2006. CRED data are
continuously revised; the calculations include
drought, extreme temperature events, floods, slides,
wildfires, and windstorms.
8. CRED, op. cit. note 7. While fatality estimates
vary between CRED and Munich Re, both show a
decrease in fatalities from 2004 to 2005.
9. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Cres-
cent Societies, World Disasters Report 2005 (Geneva:
2005), p. 53.
10. Munich Re, Topics Geo Annual Review, op. cit. note
3, p. 24.
11. Hillary Rosner, "Rain Forest Gets Too Much Rain,
and Animals Pay the Price," New York Times, 7
March 2006.
12. Ibid.
13. U.N. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction,
"Governments Must Accelerate Their Efforts to
Make Disaster Risk Reduction a National Priority,"
press release (Geneva: 18 January 2006).
14. Munich Re, Topics Geo Annual Review, op. cit. note
3, p. 32.
15. U.N. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction,
op. cit. note 13.
16. Ibid.
17. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Cres-
cent Societies, op. cit. note 9, p. 44.
18. Ibid.
19. Citizens' Disaster Response Center, "Programs and
Services," at www.cdrc-phil.org.
HYDROPOWER REBOUNDS SLIGHTLY (pages 46­47)
1. BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 (Lon-
don: 2005).
2. Ibid.
3. Eric Martinot, Renewable 2005 Global Status Report
(Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 2005).
4. BP, op. cit. note 1.
5. Ibid.
6. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Informa-
tion Administration (EIA), International Energy Out-
look 2005 (Washington, DC: 2005).
7. Martinot, op. cit. note 3.
8. BP, op. cit. note 1.
9. "Three Gorges Dam to be Completed by May," China
News, 10 January 2006.
Vital Signs 2006­2007 133