International Relations of Northeast To-hai Liou NCCU Professor of Diplomacy Faculty of Social Studies Masarky University, Brno November 18, 2008 How to write a thesis * Introduction * 1. Why this theme is important (starting with background; overthrow conventional wisdom) * 2. Literature review (What has been done? What has not been done? Then, what you intend to make contribution to this theme?) Introduction: continues * 3. Motivations and purposes * 4. Theories, Approaches or analytic tools to be used * 5. Arrangement of major arguments in a logical sequence Analysis * Major Arguments supported by minor arguments, statistic figures, evidence and facts * Notes: cite books and articles from SSCI journals, academic journals or well-known publishers; first-hand sources are preferable. Notes vs. references * Sebastian Harnisch, “U.S.-North Korean Relations under the Bush Administration: From ‘Slow Go’ to ‘No Go’,” Asian Survey, November-December 2002, Vol. 42, No. 6, p. 856. BIBLIOGRAPHY * Boese, Wade. ‘ Indian Politics Stall U.S.-Indian Nuclear Deal. ‘ Arms Control Today, Vol. 37, Iss. 9 (Nov 2007)：29-30. * Carter, Ashton B. ‘ America's New Strategic Partner? ‘ Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, Iss. 4 (Jul/Aug 2006)：33-44. * Chaulia, Sreeram S. ‘ BJP, India's Foreign Policy and the "Realist Alternative" to the Nehruvian Tradition. ‘ International Politics, Vol. 39, Iss. 2 (Jun 2002)：215-234. * Ganguly, Sumit. ‘ India in 2007: A Year of Opportunities and Disappointments. ‘ Asian Survey, Vol. 48, Iss. 1 (Feb 2008)：164-176. Conclusion * Summary * Prediction: forecast future development * Prescription: policy recommendation * Worth-exploring research topics in the future Evolution of International Environment of Northeast * Northeast Asia during the Cold War Era * Northeast Asia in the post-Cold War Era * Northeast Asia since 2000 The Cold War Era: a bipolar system The world was in a bipolar system in which two superpowers, the U.S. and the Soviet Union, dominated global affairs and they were relentlessly competing in all dimensions. Worldwide Competition The worldwide competition between the two superpowers was due to diametrically different ideologies（freedom versus communism）, economic systems（market economy vs. command economy）and political systems（democracy vs. totalitarianism）. Ideological & strategic considerations dictated The two superpowers were so preponderant, militarily in particular, that other countries for survival had no choice but to ally with either superpower. Ideology dominated international relations in the 1950s and 1960s first, then strategic considerations dictated nation’s foreign policies and international relations from 1970s through the end of the Cold War era. The Cold War Era in the 1950s * The tight bipolar system in Northeast Asia formally took shape when the Korean War burst out in June 1950. North Korea’s invasion of South Korea was perceived by Washington as part of a joint communist offensive engineered by the Soviet Union to test American resolve and will to withstand aggression. Two power centers emerged * The Korean War polarized international relations in Northeast Asia and brought about profound impact on foreign polices of countries in this area. The Communist camp led by the Soviet Union comprised China and North Korea, while the democratic camp led by the U.S. composed of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Korean war changed US Northeast Asia policy The Korean war rendered Washington redefine its Northeast Asia policy from passive defense to active defense. Before the war, the US did not trust the ROK and the ROC. South Korea was not included in the US’s Arc of Archipelagos defense line. Japan was forced to abandon military forces * Washington wanted to eliminate all the possible roots of resurging Japanese militarism. The Article 9 of the 1947 Japan Constitution was the epitome of US’s Japan policy at the time. Japan was forced to abandon military forces. Japan was incorporated into US strategic policy * The US strengthened its military cooperation with Asian allies by signing the mutual defense treaties with Japan in 1951, with Australia and New Zealand (ANZUS) in 1951, with South Korea in 1953, with Taiwan and Southeast countries (based upon the Southeast East Asian Collective Security Treaty) respectively in 1954. Northeast Asia in the 1960s * The international system in Northeast Asia transformed into the loose bipolar system with the open split of the two Communist giants, the Soviet Union and China in 1960 and inaugurated an era of turbulence. Beijing and Moscow engaged in worldwide competition for Communist leadership and struggle for support of the Third World for the next three decades. Cuban Missile crisis * The 1962 Cuban Missile crisis almost brought a nuclear war between the two superpowers. Thanks to their mutual restraint, the U. S. and the Soviet Union then started “peaceful coexistence.” * China took a hard line approach to the two superpowers. Beijing simultaneously denounced them as imperialists and encouraged the Third World to form a united front against imperialists. China and Japan emerged in the early 1960s * China joined the nuclear club in 1964 with the detonation of its first nuclear bomb. * Japan emerged as the only Asian developed economy with growing outbound investment. The Democratic Camp Strengthened * The Communist Alliance split vs. the Democratic Camp strengthened due to the establishment of Japan-South Korea diplomatic relations in 1965. * Nevertheless, America began to increasingly involve in Vietnam War since 1966. Northeast in the 1970s * Sino-Soviet military clashes over Zhenbao Island in March 1969 accelerated US President Nixon’s decision to visit Beijing in 1972. The Sino-U.S. rapprochement ushered an era of détente and the Sino-U.S.-Soviet strategic relationship with China’s shift to closer to the West for joint anti-Soviet movement. Strategic interest dominated IR * Strategic interest replaced ideology as the single most important variable for countries to make their foreign policies. Countries with different ideologies started to interact with each other, such as North-South dialogue starting August 1971. Japan established diplomatic relations with China in Sept. 1972. China’s Leadership Change and Economic Reform * After the passing away of Zhou Enlai and Mao Zedong in 1976, Deng Xiaoping consolidated his leadership in 1978 and decided to open China to the outside world and launched economic reform in 1979. The second Cold War broke out * In the late 1970s, a vicious circle of confrontation between Beijing and Moscow appeared. In August 1978, China and Japan signed the Treaty of Peace and Friendship with an anti-hegemony clause aiming at the Soviet Union. In response, the Soviet Union and Vietnam inked the Mutual Assistance Treaty in December the same year. Sino-Vietnam war vs. Soviet intrusion of Afghanistan * Subsequently, Vietnam invaded Cambodia in late 1978 and China sent troops to teach Vietnam a lesson in 1979 after Deng Xiaoping paid a visit to Washington. China and the U.S. established their diplomatic relations. This was followed by Soviet intrusion of Afghanistan in 1979. Northeast in the 1980s * Three far-reaching events made 1985 a very important year for the international system transforming from the Cold War era to the post-Cold War Era: the emergence of Mikhail Gorbachev as General Secretary of the Communist Party in the Soviet Union in March; Plaza Agreement in September; and EU’s decision to use the Single Currency. Gorbachev’s Reform Gorbachev launched reform of the economic and political system, what so called glasnost （openness）, perestroyka （reform）as well as the New Thinking diplomacy transforming Soviet foreign policy from emphasizing military strength and coerciveness to stressing political consultation and economic cooperation. Gorbachev, Market Economy & Globalization * With the SU’s decision to borrow capitalist mechanism after China, it signified that the global economy has become one characterized with market economy. Globalization thus has been in the full swing. The Plaza Agreement in September 1985 * Due to the dual pressure of budget and foreign trade deficits of US$100 billion respectively, U. S. President Ronald Reagan decided in 1985 to push those countries with largest trade surpluses with the US to cut down their trade surpluses by appreciating their currencies against dollars. Japan and the Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs) were the major targets. By product: Economic Integration of Southeast Asia & Northeast Asia * In response, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea took a similar policy of diversifying their export markets and initiating foreign direct investments. ASEAN and China were locked as the major targets for this policy. As a result, the interdependence of East Asian economies has greatly increased through a rapid expansion of intra-regional trade and investment as well as the strengthening of their industrial cooperation activities among the economies in the region. Flying Geese Pattern Emerged * The Plaza Agreement accelerated the formation of flying geese pattern (division of labor & a model of co-existence of cooperation & competition simultaneously) and economic integration of East Asia. The NIEs including Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea transformed from pure capital-absorbing countries to capital-exporting nations in the late 1980s. * Japan and NIEs poured their money into those countries at the lower level of FGP and relocated its sunset industries (labor-intensive industry with less price competitiveness) to ASEAN and China. Products produced there were either export to the US (reduce Japan & NIEs’ trade surplus with the US and take advantage of ASEAN’s MFN status) or to the upper level countries. Cooperation while competition * NIEs, China and ASEAN benefited from Japan’s investment and technology. Japan and NIEs have to continue to upgrade their technology or they might be caught up by countries at the lower level. EC’s Single Currency Decision and Bloc Economies * EC’s Decision to take Single Currency resulted in the emergence of bloc economies in the world economy in the late 1980s. It was followed by the signing of U.S.-Canadian agreement on Free Trade in 1988 and with Mexico to form the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994. APEC * The blocization of world economy means that a single country is no longer the basic unit of competition in the global economy. In response, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum was set up in 1989. Both Taiwan and China were admitted to the APEC in 1991. Sino-Soviet dente * In 1979, China took initiatives to normalize its relations with the Soviet Union and met positive response from it. The two countries agreed to hold talks at vice foreign minister’s level on improving relations alternatively in each other’s capital from the second half of September, 1979. 3 major obstacles to normalizing their relations * The Chinese side pointed out that the Soviet Union’s support to Viet Nam in invading Kampuchea, its massive deployment of troops along Sino-Soviet border and Sino-Mongolian border and its armed occupation of Afghanistan constituted three major obstacles to normalizing relations between the two countries. Gorbachev in China in 1989 * The Soviet Union began to withdraw its troops from Mongolia and Afghanistan and stated that it would make efforts to help Vietnam withdraw from Kampuchea. After Vietnam presented its timetable for withdrawal, China accepted Gorbachev’s visit in May 1989 and ended the three decades of confrontation. The Tiananmen incident * The Tiananmen incident on June 1989 made the West disillusioned. In the past, the West, in particular the US, had believed that China’s economic reform would eventually lead to democratization. The incident proved the hypothesis false. US’s domestic consensus on China broken * US’s domestic consensus on engaging China which had reached in the early 1970s was broken. This paved the way for a heated debate on how to deal with rising China in the US in the early 1990s. Breaking the international isolation after Tiananmen Incident * China took a strategy of emphasizing good-neighbor policy, reattaching importance to the countries in the Third World and offering olive branch to Japan in order to break the international isolation after Tiananmen Incident. good-neighbor policy * China established diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia in July 1990, with Singapore in October 1990, the resumption of diplomatic relations with Indonesia in August1990, with South Korea in 1992. Sino-Vietnam detente * In November 1991, Do Muoi, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) and Premier Vo Van Kict led a delegation to China, during which both sides declared that China and Vietnam would put the past to rest and open up the future. Sino-Indian relations improved * In 1993, the two governments signed the agreement on the maintenance of peace and tranquility along the line of actual control in the Sino-Indian border areas, and established an expert group to discuss the ways to implement the agreement. Japan: China’s Knife to break the West Encirclement * In July, 1989, Japan joined in with other 6 West nations in imposing economic sanctions by freezing the third Japanese government loans and suspending high-level visits. On July 11, 1990, Japanese Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu announced the resumption of its government loans to China at the Group 7 Summit. Sino-Japan rapprochement * In August 1991, Japanese Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu visited China, the first incumbent head of government of Western countries visiting China after June 1989. In April 1992, Jiang Zemin, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, visited Japan. Complemented interest for the time being * In October 1992, Japanese Emperor Akihito and Empress Michito visited China, the first ever by Japanese Emperor. China needed Japan to break the Western encirclement, while Japan expected to end the history dispute with China through the emperor’s visit once and forever. China: the major target of the West’s peaceful evolution * The fall of socialist countries in East Europe and the Soviet Union, China as the largest socialist country in the world became the major target of the West’s peaceful evolution. * In addition to breaking international isolation imposed by the West after the Tiananmen incident, regionalism was another driving force behind China’s good-neighbouring policy. Northeast Asia in the post Cold-War era * Major characteristics of the international environment * First, the contraction of U.S. influence and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the latter in particularly, have left power vacuum, which resulted in a fierce competition among regional powers to increase their influence in regional affairs. Sino-Russia axis vs. US-Japan alliance * The collapse of the Soviet Union fundamentally changed relations among the major powers in the region. China’s relations with the U.S. and Japan thus transformed from anti-Soviet allies to potential enemies. Sino-Russia relations have remarkably improved since the early 1990s, while the US-Japan relations have enhanced since 1996. 2nd: Economy topped IR agenda * Growing importance of economic affairs in international relations has changed patterns of international interactions. Major powers tend to pursue engagement policy directly and preventive diplomacy (hedging strategy) indirectly at the same time. Nye Initiative * The Nye Initiative in 1994, named after former Assistant Secretary of Defense Joseph S. Nye, Jr., officially known as the US Security Strategy for East Asia in 1995. * Constructive engagement with China, while enhancing US-Japan alliance simultaneously as a counterweight against an assertive China, in case. US Post-Cold War Asian Security Strategy * Prevent rise of regional hegemon * Maintain strong forward presence to deter conflict in Korea and preserve regional stability. * Ensure a level playing field regarding access to markets of Asia. * Maintain freedom of navigation. * Halt the proliferation of nuclear weapons * Promote democracy. Congagement * Zalmay Khalilzad proposed this strategy (US strategy) in a 1999 paper, "Congage China." The idea of "Congagement" comes from the combination of the strategy of " prevention and containment" with that of "engagement," and is based on the principle that neither containment nor engagement respectively offers an effective strategic posture. * Khalilzad highlights what he believes to be the dangers of adopting one or the other strategy, as opposed to a selective combination of the two, which allows the strengths of one to check the weaknesses of the other. No country can afford to wage a war * Due primarily to the increasing economic interdependence, no country in this area can afford to wage a trade war or trigger a military conflict. This is particularly true in relations among major powers. Sino-US economic ties * China is now the US’s fourth largest trade partner, while the US is China’s second largest trade partner, largest export market and second largest source of imports, next to Japan. The US has become the second largest source of inbound FDI in China, following Hong Kong. Statistics show that 2001 alone, US companies invested US$4.86 billion in China, setting an all-time high on a yearly basis. Mutually beneficial * The introduction of products, capital and technology from the US has helped enrich China's domestic market and provided much-needed capital and management expertise for its development. Simultaneously, industrial and high-tech businesses in the US gained access to a huge and highly profitable market in China, which helps increase employment in the US. * Alternatively, China's high-quality but low-cost consumer products have benefited hundreds of thousands of US households. US investment has played an active role in promoting economic growth in China. Meanwhile, American businesses have also benefited from China's rapid growth. Sino-Japan relations * Japan has been China’s number one trading partner and the largest imports source and third largest exporting market, while China Japan’s largest trading partner. Japan needs China’s huge market, while China regards Japan a primary source of capital and technology. Economic interdependence restrains political rows * Due to strong economic interdependence, the three major powers have showed a great deal of restraint when bilateral frictions occur. Between the U.S. and China, notable cases were US’s accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and the EP-3 reconnaissance plane incident in April 2001. Both sides have successfully tried to keep the crises at manageable level. * Likewise, Sino-Japanese relations also have experienced significant mood swings in recent years, with Koizumi's Yasukuni visits causing deep strains. Nevertheless, both sides have made efforts to get beyond these tensions to foster a more cooperative relationship essential both for Japan's economic recovery and for China's continued economic progress. Conflicting national interests of one country are common now * In the Cold War period, national interest of most countries was monolith, namely economic interest and security interest were identical for giving first priority to strategic consideration. However, this is no longer the case in international relations in the post-Cold war era. Nowadays it is common that a country’s economic interest conflicts with its security interest. Third, arms race vs. multilateral and bilateral dialogue * Increasing uncertainty and insecurity in Northeast Asia after the end of the Cold War have brought about arms race and the introduction of multilateral mechanism and the flourishing of new links of bilateral dialogue at the same time. Northeast Asia imports most arms globally * Northeast Asia has replaced Middle East as the area where imports most arms in the world since the early 1990s. China was the country that imported most weapons in the world in 2001. In addition, defense budgets of Asia Pacific countries have also greatly increased since the early 1990s. The arms race in Northeast Asia undercuts all talk of peace in the region. Soaring military expense * According to Sweden’s Institute of International Peace, in 2000 military expense of the U.S. was US$280.6 billion (3 percent of its GDP), while that of Russia US$43.9 billion (4 percent of its GDP), Japan US$37.8 billion, China US$23 billion (2.1 percent of its GDP) and Taiwan US$7.2 billion (2.5 percent of its GDP). * The United States is using half of the world’s combined military expenditures (US$1 trillion a year) .China’s official military budget for 2007 was US$45 billion. Japan spends US$50 billion on its military, despite its Peace Constitution and its principle of having an “exclusively defensive posture.” but with an ambition to become a “normal country” and global power. * Japan installed its third Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) surface-to-air interceptor and plans on nine more by 2011. The more ambitious part of the program, however, is based at sea. In December 2007, Japan conducted its first sea-based interceptor test. * In 2007, China tested its own anti-ballistic missile system by shooting down one of its old weather satellites. * This year China sent astronauts to the Moon. * Russia is in the midst of trying to restore the glory of the Soviet empire and its superpower military might. With the renewed growth of the Russian economy on the strength of energy sales, Russian arms expenditures began to take off again in the new millennium, increasing nearly fourfold between 2000 and 2006. * Russia did a successful test launch of a new intercontinental ballistic missile that can penetrate U.S. missile defense in 2007 and is developing a next-generation jet fighter that would rival the F-22. * Between 1999 and 2006, South Korean military spending jumped more than 70 percent. The country has embarked on an ambitious US$665 billion Defense Reform 2020 initiative, which will increase the military budget by roughly 10 percent a year until 2020. * Though they view each other as potential adversary and competitor, China and Japan have engaged in bilateral security dialogue since 1995. Alternatively, despite of frequent frictions resulting from past history, South Korea and Japan have started military exchanges as well as bilateral consultation and dialogue since the end of the Cold War. * On the security front, multilateralism has emerged as a supplement (complement) of bilateralism. Middle powers like Canada and Australia have proposed the idea of cooperative security. * Washington formally changed its stance from favoring bilateralism only to considering multilateralism as a complement to bilateralism under Clinton, so was China. ASEAN Regional Forum（ARF）thus was introduced in 1994. * Three-party talks and Six-party talks over North Korean nuclear crisis were inaugurated in 2003. 4th: Northeast Asia can no longer be discussed alone * Economically, ASEAN plus six model has emerged as the mechanism for the Asian economic integration. * Strategically, US-Japan security pact and US-Australia security pact in 1996 * Clinton’s visit to India in March 2003 * Bush’s Nuclear Deal with India 5^th: 911 incident * 911 terrorist attacks against the U.S. brought about profound implications for global politics, including the resurgence of the importance of security in international relations, the change of U.S. foreign policy priorities and its redefinition of enemies and fiends. * Because the incident is the unprecedented case of non-state actors launching massive terrorist acts against sovereign stares, for the common concern, the vast majority of countries in the globe have tried to accommodate themselves to echo American President Bush’s call for a war on terrorism. * Nevertheless, they have responded to a different degree for different reasons. They have also attempted to take advantage of the war on terrorism to their own interest, so are countries in Asia Pacific. * Japan is one of few East Asian countries that have enthusiastically offered their support to Washington. Since the end of the Cold War, Japan has been eager to seek for political status commensurate with its economic clout and to rewrite its constitution to abolish Article Nine in order to become what-so-called normal nation whose military forces can function as an alternative to solve international dispute. * According to Article Nine, Japan voluntarily denounces using forces to solve international disputes. Taking advantage of the war on terrorism, the Koizumi government spent only about five weeks to enact the anti-terrorism special law. The range of Japanese operations has been expanded to include logistic support beyond the Far East and to other coalition partners than the U.S. Sino-US condominium emerged * Indeed, 911 offered China and the U.S. the chance to build a new, constructive relationship. Six-party talks and cross-Strait relations were skillfully used by China to form a Sino-US condominium. THE END 演講人：政治大學外交系教授　 劉德海　　（liu7249@nccu.edu.tw)