ž žStrategy and Sustainability ž Problem Agent Climate change Greenhouse gases Ozone depletion Emissions of CFCs Species extinction Loss of habitat Fishery destruction Over-fishing Deforestation Unsustainable agriculture Land degradation Over-exploitation; cash crops Depletion of natural resources Over-exploitation Problem Agent Climate change Industrial production Ozone depletion Production of refrigerants Species extinction Production of cash crops Fishery destruction Over-fishing Deforestation Production of cash crops Land degradation Biofuels; over-production Depletion of natural resources Production for consumptive society http://eo.ucar.edu/kids/green/images/carboncycle_sm.jpg V:\broadcastmet\climate\media\graphics\minmax_allnat_ann.jpg Climate models are not only used to look at how climate might change, they’re also used to figure out WHY it’s changing. When models are run with only natural influences from the sun and volcanic eruptions, they say that during the latter half of the 20^th century, we would have expected little change from normal conditions (the blue line). Only the addition of human emissions (greenhouse gases, sulfates, and ozone) produce the model results in red that most closely reproduce the black line of actual observations. So, although they aren’t perfect, climate models can reproduce many of the larger features of climate change in Earth’s distant past, and they replicate the pattern of warming in the last 100+ years. This gives us confidence that they correctly identify that the warming is due to man’s activities, and that projections of future warming are realistic. F2_2_CO2_GWP f_cheat http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3s260TvwSn4/TsuAXEP12RI/AAAAAAAAQRI/biKPrKdF4PE/s1600/ScreenShot312.bmp ž3 billion more middle-class consumers expected to be in the global economy by 2030 ž80% rise in steel demand projected from 2010 – 2030 ž147% increase in real commodity prices since the turn of the century ž100% increase in the average cost to bring a new oil well on line over the past decade žThe report also identifies 15 opportunities that could deliver about 75% of the resource productivity benefits http://www.interfacecutthefluff.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/15opportunities.jpg Source data for individual nations taken from EIA 2008, Table H1GCO2, ‘World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Combustion and Flaring of Fossil Fuels per Thousand Dollars of Gross Domestic Product Using Market Exchange Rates.’ World carbon intensity is calculated using total emissions data in Table H1CO2 in the EIA database and world GDP data (at constant 2000 prices, market exchange rates) taken from IMF (2008) data available online at: www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/weodata/index.aspx ž‘cannot turn pots back into clay’ ž‘extracts fossil fuels and ores at one end and transforms them into commodities and waste products’ ž ken1 žEllen Macarthur Foundation: circular economy ž žIntroduction to the circular economy ž žReactions? žA powerful prism through which to examine the impact of industry and technology on the biophysical environment žExamines local, regional and global uses and flows of materials and energy in products, processes, industrial sectors and economies biomimicry-design-spiral žPorritt encourages businesses to ‘match the metabolism of the natural world’--biomimicry •‘Buildings that, like trees, produce more energy than they consume and purify their own waste water’ •‘Products that, when their useful life is over, do not become useless waste but can be tossed on to the ground to decompose and become food for plants and animals and nutrients for soil’ C:\Users\Molly\Documents\routbook\pictures\to send\Fig 11_5 indust ecol.gif žIt depends on how efficiently we use the materials and energy in economic production žLovins gave the example of improving a pipe system by straightening the pipe and enlarging its diameter, thus reducing the energy needed to pump fluid through it. http://www.ecojoes.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/lovins-banana.jpg Hawken, P., Lovins, A., and Lovins, L. H. (1999), Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution (Snowmass, Colo.: Rocky Mountain Institute). ž‘The first of natural capitalism's four interlinked principles, therefore, is radically increased resource productivity. Implementing just this first principle can significantly improve a firm's bottom line, and can also help finance the other three. They are ›redesigning industry on biological models with closed loops and zero waste ›shifting from the sale of goods (for example, light bulbs) to the provision of services (illumination) ›reinvesting in the natural capital that is the basis of future prosperity’ žFactor 4 (von Weizsäcker et al. 1997); updated as Factor 5 (2009) ž‘Picking up where Factor Four left off, this new book examines the past 15 years of innovation in industry, technical innovation and policy. It shows how and where factor four gains have been made and how we can achieve greater factor five or 80%+ improvements in resource and energy productivity and how to roll them out on a global scale to retool our economic system, massively boost wealth for billions of people around the world and help solve the climate change crises.’ Hawken, P., Lovins, A., and Lovins, L. H. (1999), Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution (Snowmass, Colo.: Rocky Mountain Institute). Weizsäcker, E. U. von, Lovins, A. and Lovins, L. H. (1997), Factor Four : Doubling Wealth—Halving Resource Use : The New Report to the Club of Rome (London: Earthscan). žFocuses on the workflow within and between enterprises to improve time management and reduce costs. Seven principles: ›1. Organize around outcomes, not tasks. ›2. Identify all the processes in an organization and prioritize them in order of redesign urgency. ›3. Integrate information processing work into the real work that produces the information. ›4. Treat geographically dispersed resources as though they were centralized. ›5. Link parallel activities in the workflow instead of just integrating their results. ›6. Put the decision point where the work is performed, and build control into the process. ›7. Capture information once and at the source. ž žWork in pairs žRead through the case-study and consider the efforts the company has already made to address the sustainability agenda žNow rethink the business entirely using the model of the circular economy: what changes could you propose to the CEO žHow would you justify these ideas strategically? žDenmark as a renewables’ success story: ž ‘Denmark’s emergence as a leader in the renewable energy sector represents a remarkable transformation. Despite lacking almost entirely in hydroelectric resources and without the strong biomass tradition of its Scandinavian neighbours, the government has used policies to build up one of the biggest renewable energy sectors in the world.’ (IEA 2006, p. 9) -20,000 jobs -50% of world market in wind turbine manufacture ž žGovt subsidy of 30% on all new wind power investment from 1980 – 1990 ž‘Energipakken’ – forcing electricity distribution companies to take quotas of renewable linked to rising targets §Feed-in-tariff (FIT) guaranteed price – 84% of costs for green energy from 1993 žSupport for local and collective ownership §Distance regulation + consumption laws §Growth of coops = 84% of turbine ownership, 12% of population §Growth of democratic associations – Danish Wind Turbine Owners Assoc.