11 3. From Population to Individual Ageing Summary: Demographic data shows that population ageing is increasing. This phenomenon is due to increased longevity and life expectancy in the majority of countries in the world. People are living longer and in better health than ever before. Research demonstrates that healthy and successful ageing is not a myth but a possible reality for all, countering the prejudice according to which if you are old, you are sick and disabled. In this context, the biological theories on ageing have witnessed a reverse trend, which started a controversy between (i) the traditionalists who do not believe humans can prolong their life with or without interventions, and (ii) the protagonists of a continuous increase longevity and a disease-free life through early detection and prevention (and AAM), which is supported by the progress of life science technology. Prevention and intervention today follows 3 patterns: a) the classic model of decline with ageing, b) better and healthier ageing through prevention programmes, and c) anti-ageing medicine and long life preservation of health and peak performance with the use of new technologies (from biomolecular to surgical interventions, from dietary supplements to robotic environments). 3.1. Population Perspective 3.1.1. The Population Ageing Never in the history of mankind have we witnessed a 'silent revolution' of such significance for all sectors of society. Population ageing, a global phenomenon, is affecting every individual, society and policies in industrialised countries and more and more in countries in transition.'It is a 'revolution', because of its significance. It is 'silent', because this revolution remains nevertheless relatively unclear or not prioritised, despite the tremendous challenges it presents in terms of social cohesion and individual and family values. Today, evidence shows we live a longer life, in better conditions, and in better health than in any previous century. Anti-Ageing n experts have even called this fact an Agequake,' or a 'New Inter-ial Demographic Order'. The population growth followed by the current e in growth rates, the fertility decline, an increased life expectancy, chan-n living conditions and technologies, the increasing urbanisation, and ition are all cumulative factors of this new demographic order which affects untries worldwide. and population census reveal throughout the world the constant increase e number and proportion of the elderly. Presently 673 million inhabitants in jvorld are aged 60 and above, among them 88 million are more than 80 s old. According to the United Nations 2006 Prospects (UN, 2007) the scted numbers for 2050 are of 2 billion (60 and over) and 400 million (80 over), which means a multiplication by 3 and 4.5 respectively, of older pectively oldest-old) populations. Jay, 21% of the European population and 17% of the Northern American )ulation are aged 60 and above. Those figures will increase to 35% and 27% pectively by 2050. The challenge in industrialised societies is that ageing will )gressively impact on every country in the world. One half of the oldest-old pulation (80+) currently lives in the most developed countries (among them % live in Europe and 13% in Northern America). During the coming decades, >s developed countries will however also observe a significant demographic jeing and in 2050 the majority of the elderly (62% of the 60+) will live in Asia iinsella and Velkoff, 2001; UN, 2007). opulation figures for Switzerland clearly show the expected emergence of the Iderly. According to the most recent demographic forecasts (SFSO, 2006), 7.6% (1.33 million) of the current population are 60-79 and 4.7% (355,000) .re 80 and above. The expected percentage for 2050 are 22.5% (1,82 million) ind 11.7% (942,000), which means that one out of three Swiss residents will be jged 60 and above. Until 2050 the number of people aged 60-79 will increase ay 36%. The increase in the number of oldest-olds will be of 165% (compared lo 6.6% for the total population (table 2). Therefore, the observed 'silent revolution' is far from being merely demographic; it is multidimensional and global. The consequence on the development of nations is already felt by the individual, the family and at the social level in the whole world—for example, in the area of distribution and access to all the facilities which guarantee health, lodging, work, social welfare, security, technology, etc. Policies must be updated regularly, or even no..., - _ adjust existing structures to the new population architecture and to abate or prevent social tensions due to economic and technological constraints and health care rationing. Table 2: Age Structure in Switzerland, 2007-2050 (numbers and percentage) Trend 2007 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007-2050 Age groups Population 0-19 1,626.182 1,594,093 1,520,975 1,495,395 1.444,461 1,397,442 -14.1 20-39 2,024.032 2,024,443 2,038,877 1,931,112 1,851,223 1,828,350 -9.7 40-59 2,222,792 2,282,708 2,304,524 2,177,285 2,167,348 2,078,167 -6.5 60-79 1,332,890 1,410,085 1,679,463 1,911,777 1,909,844 1,815,032 +36.2 80+ 355,355 380,963 458,952 627,318 778,106 941,729 + 165.0 Total 7,561,251 7,692,292 8,002,791 0,742,887 fi, 750,982 8,060,720 6.6 Proportion 0-19 21.5 20.7 19.0 18.4 17.7 17.3 20-39 26.8 26.3 25.5 23.7 22.7 22.7 40-59 29.4 29.7 28.8 26.7 26.6 25.8 60-79 17.6 18.3 21.0 23.5 23.4 22.5 80+ 4.7 5.0 5.7 7.7 9.5 11.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Swiss Federal Statistical Office SFSO, 2006 The epidemiologic (or mortality) transition does not only impact on age structure, but also on the quality of life of the elderly. Numerous studies show the regular improvement of the health status of the elderly. For instance, according to the Swiss Health Surveys, the proportion of people aged 65-79 complaining of symptoms of bad mental health decreased from 22% to 11% between 1992 and 2002. The general improvement in health also leads to an increase of the disability-free life expectancy (DFLE). In Switzerland and according to the same surveys and mortality tables, DFLE at the age of 65 increased by more than one year between 1992 and 2002 for women, to reach 21 years. This means that a woman of 65 years can expect to live 21 more 14 Anti-Ageing Medicine: Myths and Chances years without any incapacity. Among men, DFLE at the age of 65 in 2002 was 17 years, 1.5 years more than in 1992 (Guilley, 2005). Similar trends are observed when considering life expectancy in good subjective health. Such trends mean that the elderly not only live longer, but are also in better health and have other expectations regarding leisure and ways to spend the last part of their life. Moreover, in comparison to their parents and grandparents, they also benefit from more financial resources. Recent studies demonstrate that in industrialised countries aged populations present an increasing level of income and wealth. Contrary to what was observed some decades ago where a high level of poverty characterised older people,1 the elderly are now in a better financial situation than young adults. Recent studies conducted in Switzerland (Moser, 2002, 2006) highlighted that the elderly declare a higher level of wealth than younger people (in the Canton of Zurich one out of four retired couples are millionaires) and that they also regularly (and sometimes rapidly) increase their wealth. Official data confirms this statement suggesting that the proportion of persons who get social benefits from the public sector is significantly lower among the elderly than among the young. Different factors explain the new socioeconomic status of the elderly. First, the present population of retirees benefited from a period of rapid economic growth, and a large percentage was able to take advantage of this situation to accumulate savings. This phenomenon is well known for the Baby Boomers, a population born during the 1940s and 1950s characterised by a successful active life and thus well placed financially. Second, the implementation of social security systems in industrialised countries contributed to decreasing the risk of poverty among retirees. Not only are public expenses for retired persons very high (the amount of total public expenditure for retirees is approximately ten times higher than the cost of supporting families), but individual retirement plans are more and more frequent. Third, sexagenarians are the main beneficiaries of inheritance (Stutz and al., 2007), which undoubtedly increases their level of wealth. Their investments are also less risky which increases wealth (Wanner and Gabadinho, 2007). Although the subject does not only address persons of higher ages, the term older people', adopted by the UN, is used throughout this report. From Population to Individual Ageing 15 ome groups however, the risk of poverty is high, in particular for those with !" S°term illnesses and widowers as these groups often have the lowest level of me and little wealth (Wanner and Gabadinho, 2007). But the number of elderly able to live a successful life after 65 is on the increase. The effect of technology on globalisation has produced a society centred more on what is 'new', 'young' and fast', to the detriment of some traditional and common values among all generations. Healthier, wealthier, and the 'median' elderly have new expectations regarding the late part of life. The traditional model, where life was divided between youth and adulthood is progressively replaced by the current model of four stages: youth, adulthood, third age, and fourth age. Third age, also called 'a second youth', is nowadays an opportunity for new occupations and the increase of leisure activities. According to the Havighurst and Albrecht's (1953) theory of activity, retirement is replacing professional by non-professional activities. The participation in social activities is important, as a positive image of older people is a factor of integration in society. According to this theory, old age and its consequences should be fought to its very limits, and this fight is necessarily connected to the maintenance of health. 3.1.2. Decrease in Mortality Rates and Health Improvement As mentioned, the decrease in mortality rates is the main factor of demographic ageing in industrialised societies. It also indicates a general improvement in health that is illustrated by the Swiss data. Switzerland experienced a rapid increase in life expectancy towards the end of the 19,h and all through the 20,h century. In 1900 life expectancy at birth was of 48.5 years for females, and 45.7 years for males. Today's life expectancy is of 82.8 years (females) and 77.2 years (men), and the progression has not stopped. Such trends lead to a rectangularisation of the survival curve as illustrated in figure 1 (Paccaud et al., 1998). With the increase of survival rates observed in young aged people, more and more people die at the same ages—between approximately 75 and 90 (figure 1). At the extreme end of this curb, everyone would die at the same age—the maximum lifespan. In this hypothetical case, the survival curve would be rectangular. The part of the figure located on the 16 Anti-Ageing Medicine: Myths and Chances upper right-hand side above the curves represents remaining gains in life expectancy to reach a whole equality. Differences between curves describe progress observed during the last decades. Figure 1: The Rectangularisation of Survival Curves for Women in Switzerland 1910-1911 to 1998-2003 Source: Swiss Federal Statistical Office SFSO, 2006 The increase in life expectancy is not a worldwide phenomenon. Countries such as Romania or Russia have recently observed a decrease of life duration after the end of the communism regime. Japan showed in 2005 a curious decrease in life expectancy, which needs to be confirmed. However, let us be reminded that life expectancy is a "mean number" which can decrease through increase of younger generations or HIV-AIDS pandemic and does not exclude the existence of a high number of older persons. Analysis of the population longevity development shows that the spectacular increase in life expectancy during the last century is linked to many factors such as the improvement of hygiene and sanitation, the progress of medicine and public health and better treatments and prevention measures. Experts generally mention three conditions required today for increasing life expectancy in the world: 1) a good health status of the population, 2) the absence of epidemics, and 3) a good socioeconomic and sanitarian context. If those conditions are From Population to Individual Ageing 17 respected, people might progressively live longer, whatever their age and sex, as a result of the improvement in medical knowledge and the fight against diseases. This does not imply that in Switzerland and more generally in Western Europe population's health status is not an important challenge. Up to now, epidemiological data suggest a general improvement of different health indicators during the last decades. However, the increase in life expectancy also results from the epidemiologic transition, meaning the transition from the 'age of pestilence and famine' to the 'age of receding pandemics', and finally to the 'age of degenerative and man-made diseases' (Omran, 1971). The latter characterised industrialised societies, where chronic disease and mental illness rise in importance in the population. Survey data however show a rapid decrease in different indicators of morbidity, after controlling age. As the baby boom generation rapidly approaches age 65 and due to the increase in number of the oldest-old, solutions are sought to maintain health and autonomy in individuals throughout their life and ageing. Today, countries that are already hit by their ageing population are investing in cost-effective interventions and measures to enhance quality of life while reducing the anticipated rise in costs and medical care of the old age, 3.1.3. Biodemography and Longevity Medicine According to an expert meeting of the International Longevity Centre in New York (2001), longevity medicine expresses the intention of the field to extend life within what appear to be genetically determined limits, through control of the myriad diseases that afflict humanity, and through direct intervention in the biological processes of ageing. Longevity medicine should apply to all means that would extend healthy life, including health promotion, disease prevention, diet, exercise, cessation of tobacco use, as well as advanced medical care and new discoveries that result from basic research. It also suggests the ultimate possibility of identifying and even manipulating those genetic factors that may influence the genetically determined limits of the species." This definition yields towards the eventual development of authentic longevity-promoting interventions of documented safety and efficacy. MASARVKOVA UNiVüRZITA FakuJte socUinicfr studii Joitova W, 602 00 BRNO