WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN THE NETHERLANDS (UN)EMPLOYMENT MOBILITY AND PARTNER EFFECTS LECTURE ON NOVEMBER 5, 2015 FOR THE COURSE ON SOCIAL STRATIFICATION BY TOMAS KATRNAK AT MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO INEQUALITIES IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES AND LIFE CHANCES ONE-MOMENT AND ONEPERSON DISTRIBUTIONS PERCENT BELOW POVERTY LINE OPENNESS / CLOSURE QUINTILE SHARES TWO-MOMENTS MOBILITY WHO MARRIES WHOM? (CONNUBIUM) WHO IS FRIENDS WITH WHOM? (CONVIVIUM) ABSOLU TE MOBILIT Y RATES RELATIV E MOBILIT Y CHANCE ABSOLUTE HETEROGA MY RATES RELATIVE HETEROGA MY CHANCES WHAT TYPES OF RESOURCES, WHAT KIND OF LIFE CHANCES? CUTTING DOWN ON ARBITRARINESS BY MAKING LISTS THREE TYPES OF RESOURCES MEANS OP COERCION MEANS OF PRODUCTION MEANS OF PERSUASION THREE TYPES OF LIFE CHANCES LONGEVITY (LIFE EXPECTANCY) STANDARD OF LIVING LIFE STYLE AND NOW A STRATIFICATION RESEARCHER IS ABLE TO PLAY AROUND: WHAT IS AT THIS OR THAT MOMENT IN THIS OR THAT TYPE OF SOCIETY THE STRENGTH OF THE RELATION BETWEEN THIS OR THAT RESOURCE WITH THIS OR THAT LIFE CHANCE? INEQUALITIES IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES AND LIFE CHANCES INCOM UNEMPLOYMENT AS E A HANDICAP AS A LIFE CHANC E DECIL INUNEM BEING DUAL E COM UNEMPLOYE EARNSHAR E PLOYD, ERS ES MOBI MENT REMAINING -LITY RATE UNEMPLOYE D? HIGH BROW CULTURE AS A LIFE STYLE AND LIFE CHANCE EDUCATION AS A RESOURCE WHY DOES UNEMPLOY -MENT COME IN COUPLES? EDUCA PARTNER’S EDUCATION AS TIONAL A RESOURCE HETER IN FINDING A OJOB? GAMY ABSOLUTE RELATIVE RATES OF CHANCES OF EDUCATIONA EDUCATIONA L L HETEROGAM HETEROGAM Y Y OWN, PARTNER’S, PARENT’S EDUCATION AND HIGH BROW LIFE WHY TAKE UNEMPLOYMENT AS A HANDICAP? THE CENTURY-OLD HYPOTHESIS OF INCREASING UNEMPLOYMENT RATES OF ENGELS AND MARX IS OUT! DUNCAN: IN USA IN 1962 NEGROES WITH LOW EDUCATION HAVE SAME (VERY LOW) JOB PRESTIGE AS WHITES WITH LOW EDUCATION NO DISTRIMINATION AT THE LOWEST LEVEL OF EDUCATION?! DUNCAN FORGOT THAT NEGROES WITH LOW EDUCATION WERE MORE LIKELY TO BE UNEMPLOYED THAN WHITES WITH LOW EDUCATION IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1983 UNEMPLOYMENT FOR MEN WAS NEAR 20% (IT NOW IS ABOUT 5 OR 6%) AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION HAS THREE HYPOTHESES OF POLITICIANS ABOUT HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE NETHERLANDS IN THE 1980s RIGHT: HIGH UNEMLOYMENT RATE DOES NOT MEAN NO MOBILITY FROM UNEMLOYMENT TO EMPLOYMENT CHRISTIAN CENTER: THE FAMILLY IS A BUFFER AGAINST UNEMPLOYMENT OF ONE ITS MEMBERS LEFT: IF LITTLE MOBILITY AND FAMILY NO BUFFER, THE FORMATION OF AN UNDERCLASS THE EXPRESSION UNDERCLASS BECAME KNOWN THROUGH THE GERMAN SOCIOLOGIST DAHRENDORF, WHO HAD BECOME A COMMISSIONER OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY IN ADDITION, THE BRITISH SOCIOLOGIST GOLDTHORPE IN 1980 ARGUED AGAINST STUDYING OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE MOBILITY, AND IN FAVOR OF STUDYING CLASS MOBILITY CLASSES WOULD DIFFER, AMONG OTHERS, IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATES YET NO PROPER EFFORT WAS MADE TO SHOW THIS AND EFFECTS OF PARENTAL UNEMPLOYMENT SPELLS ON LATER CLASS OF THEIR CHILDREN OUR GRAPHS OF INTERCONNECTED STRATIFICATION QUESTIONS, LEADS US TO RAISE AT LEAST FOUR QUESTIONS GOING BEYOND THE USUAL QUESTION OF HOW HIGH THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS: 1A. HOW MUCH MOBILITY IS THERE BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT? 1B. AND AS A FOLLOW-UP: IS THERE LESS MOBILITY BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT WHEN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS HIGHER? 2A. DOES UNEMPLOYMENT COME IN COUPLES? 2B. AND AS A FOLLOW-UP: WHY DOES UNEMPLOYMENT COME IN COUPLES? IS IT SIMPLY A BY-PRODUCT OF EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY AND THE POSITIVE EFFECT OF INDIVIDUAL TO DETERMINE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, MOST WESTERN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES IN THE 1980s CONDUCTED LABOUR FORCE SURVEYS NOW EUROSTAT DOES SO FOR ALL EU COUNTRIES THE SURVEYS SAMPLE HOUSEHOLDS FOR EACH HOUSHOLD MEMBER THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS ASCERTAINED IF NOT RETIRED, NOT IN EDUCATION AND NOT A PAID JOB, THREE QUESTIONS: WANT TO WORK? AVAILABLE FOR WORK? LOOKING FOR WORK? IF A PERSON IS NOT AT WORK, WANTS TO WORK, IS AVAILABLE FOR WORK AND LOOKING FOR WORK, THEN THIS PERSON IS COUNTED AS UNEMPLOYED EMPLOYED AND UNEMPLOYED PERSONS FORM LABOUR FORCE THE OTHER PERSONS ARE COUNTED AS OUTSIDE THE LABOUR FORCE UNEMPLOYED PERSONS ARE ASKED WHEN THEY LAST HELD A JOB: LESS THAN 3 MONTHS AGO, 3 TO LESS THAN 6, 6 TO LESS THAN 12, 12 OR MORE EMPLOYED PERSONS ARE NOT ASKED SINCE WHEN THEY HAVE BEEN WORKING SO, NO TABLE CAN BE MADE CROSSCLASSIFYING LABOUR FORCE STATUS NOW (EMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYED, OUTSIDE) AGAINST LABOUR FORCE STATUS THREE MONTHS AGO, 6 MONTHS AGO, 12 MONTHS AGO YET SUCH A TABLE MAY BE APPROXIMATED TAKE THE DATA FOR, SAY, THE NETHERLANDS IN 2013 THE NUMBER OF PERSONS IN THE LABOUR FORCE (EMPLOYED PLUS UNEMPLOYED) IS KNOWN IT ALSO IS KNOWN HOW MANY PERSONS WERE UNEMPLOYED IN 2013 KNOWN TOO IS THE NUMBER OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED IN 2014 FOR THE UNEMPLOYED PERSONS IN 2014 IT IS KNOWN HOW MANY WERE AT LEAST UNEMPLOYED FOR A YEAR EMPLOYED 2014 EMPLOYED 2013 UNEMPLOYED 2013 TOTAL ?? ?? ?? UNEMPLOYED 2014 ?? KNOWN ?? KNOWN TOTAL KNOWN KNOWN THIS MEANS THAT THE UNKNOWN FIGURES MAY BE COMPUTED BY SUBSTRACTION FOR THE FOUR INNER CELLS AN ODDS RATIO WAS COMPUTED ODDS RATIO’S ARE INDEPENDENT OF MARGINAL FREQUENCIES MY DATA RAN FROM THE EARLY 1970s TO THE MID 1980s FOR AUSTRALIA IRELAND AUSTRIA ITALY BELGIUM JAPAN DENMARK NETHERLANDS CANADA NORWAY FINLAND SWEDEN FRANCE UNITED KINGDOM GERMANY UNITED STATES THE HYPOTHESIS WAS CONFIRMED: THE HIGHER THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, THE LESS MOBILITY BETWEEN EMPLOYED AND UNEMPLOYMENT AS MEASURED BY ODDD RATIO’S WE FOUND COUNTRY DIFFERENCES IN MOBILITY BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT AND WE TRIED TO EXPLAIN THESE DIFFERENCES BY LAWS MAKING IT EASY OR DIFFICULT TO LAY OFF PERSONS AND BY THE GENEROUSNESS OF UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT SCHEMES: MORE GENEROUS, LESS MOBILITY FOR THESE SCHEMES WE USED DESCRIPTIONS FROM THE THINK TANK BASED IN PARIS CALLED OECD: ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT DID NOT WORK AS WELL AS WE WISHED, OECD DID NOT FULLY SUCCEED IN MAKING COMPARABLE DESCRIPTIONS THE MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS FOR THE UNITED STATES IN THE EARLY I980s ON THE COVER SAID: RELATIONAL DATA THAT MEANT THE LINKING OF RECORDS FOR PERSONS AND THEIR SPOUSE SO THERE WERE TABLES WHICH CROSSCLASSIFIED THE LABOUR MARKET STATUS OF HUSBANDS AGAINST THAT OF THEIR WIFE THIS TABLE SHOWED THAT IS THE HUSBAND IS UNEMPLOYED HIS WIFE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE UNEMPLOYED TOO THIS FINDING WAS NOT SURPRISING TO ME: THE STATISTICS SHOW THAT MORE EDUCATION MAKES FOR LOWER CHANCES OF UNEMPLOYMENT, FOR MEN BUT ALSO FOR WOMEN AND IT IS KNOWN FROM PREVIOUS RESEARCH THAT THERE IS A LOT OF EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY THIS IS WHAT WE CALLED THE BY-PRODUCT EDUCATION MALE SPOUSE HUSBAND’S UNEMPLOYME NT EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE WIFE’S UNEMPLOYMEN T EDUCATION MALE SPOUSE HUSBAND’S UNEMPLOYME NT EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE WIFE’S UNEMPLOYMEN T HOWEVER, THIS BY-PRODUCT EXPLANATION ONLY COULD ACCOUNT FOR A PART OF THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE LABOUR MARKET STATUS OF SPOUSES IN THE UNITED STATES, CANADA AND THE NETHERLANDS FOR THE USA WE GOT FOR FREE A TAPE OF A LABOUR FORCE SURVEY ON THAT WE TESTED ANOTHER BY-PRODUCT EXPLANATION: THE OLDER A PERSON, THE LOWER THE CHANCES OF UNEMPLOYMENT WE HAD A SHARED RESTRICTIONS EXPLANATION TOO: MEN AND THEIR WIVES ARE PART OF THE SAME LOCAL LABOUR MARKET, WITH ITS OWN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BUT THE LOCAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DID NOT MAKE THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE LABOUR FORCE STATES OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES DISAPPEAR EITHER BY ELIMINATION WE ARRIVED AT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT PARTNERS INFLUENCE ONE ANOTHER AS REGARDS LABOUR FORCE STATUS BY WAY OF THEIR EDUCATION PARTNER EFFECTS EDUCATION MALE SPOUSE HUSBAND’S UNEMPLOYME NT EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE WIFE’S UNEMPLOYMEN T EDUCATION MALE SPOUSE HUSBAND’S UNEMPLOYME NT EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE WIFE’S UNEMPLOYMEN T EDUCATION MALE SPOUSE HUSBAND’S UNEMPLOYME NT EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE WIFE’S UNEMPLOYMEN T HOW DO YOU TEST FOR PARTNER EFFECTS? WE NEEDED JOB-HISTORIES OF MEN AND THEIR WIVES WE FOUND THEM IN A DUTCH DATA FILE FROM THE MINISTRY OF SOCIAL AFFAIRS AND WE COLLECTED LONGER JOBHISTORIES IN ONE OF OUR OWN SURVEYS FOR BOTH HUSBAND AND WIFE WHEN STARTING FROM EMPLOYED WOMEN, WE FOUND SOME INDICATION THAT HER OWN EDUCATION MADE FOR A LOWER CHANCE OF BECOMING UNEMPLOYED AND THAT THIS CHANCE WAS DIMINISHED TOO BY HER HUSBAND’S EDUCATION FOR UNEMPLOYED MEN, WE FOUND NO EFFECTS OF THE EDUCATION OF THEIR WIFE FOR EMPLOYED MEN, WE FOUND NO EFFECT OF PARTNER’S EDUCATION EITHER NOW TAKE WOMEN WHO ARE OUTSIDE THE LABOUR FORCE IF THEY HAVE A HIGHER EDUCATION, ARE THEY MORE LIKELY TO HAVE BECOME EMPLOYED IN THE NEXT MONTH? YES, AND INDEPENDENT OF THIS, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME EMPLOYED IF THEIR HUSBAND HAS A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION WHAT IS MORE, INDEPENDENT OF THIS, THE WIFE IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN NONEMPLOYED IF HER HUSBAND HAS A HIGHER INCOME SO, HERE THERE ARE OPPOSING PARTNER THE IDEA OF LIFE STYLE AS ELABORATED BY PIERRE BOURDIEU IS QUITE MESSY, IT INCLUDES TOO MUCH THE IDEA OF LIFE STYLE IS LESS MESSY AS INTRODUCED BY MAX WEBER CLASS IS ABOUT WORK AND WORK RELATIONS LIFE STYLE IS ABOUT HOW A PERSON’S LIVES LIFE STYLE IS ABOUT WITH WHOM THIS PERSON SPENDS LEISURE AND NEXT TO WHOM THIS PERSON SLEEPS EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY IN THE NETHERLANDS A PERSON WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION IS MORE LIKELY TO FIND A PARTNER WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION HOWEVER, WHETHER A PERSON COUPLES WITH A PERSON WITH A HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION ALSO DEPENDS UPON THE LEVEL OF EDUCATION IF THIS PERSON’S FATHER AND THIS PERSON’S MOTHER MORE ON LIFE STYLE IN THEIR LEISURE TIME PEOPLE GO TO PUBLIC PLACES SUPPORTED BY GOVERNMENTAL MONEY: OPERA’S, CONCERTS ON OLD INSTRUMENTS, EXHIBITIONS OF OLD PAINTINGS, AND PLAYS BY LONG-DEAD WRITERS ACCORDING TO BOURDIEU-LIKE HYPOTHESES, IN THESE PUBLIC PLACES PEOPLE SHOW OFF THEIR STATUS ACCORDING TO OTHER HYPOTHESES, IT IS NOT STATUS BUT EDUCATION THAT MAKES FOR PEOPLE VISITING THESE PLACES, THESE PLACES PRESENT COMPLEX INFORMATION THE OLD FORMAT OF STUDIES IN CULTURAL PARTICIPATION DO A SURVEY AND ASK HOW OFTEN PERSONS RIGHT NOW DO CERTAIN THINGS AND ASK FOR CHARACTERISTICS LIKE EDUCATION, OCCUPATION AND INCOME WHAT COMES OUT? EDUCATION ALMOST ALWAYS HAS THE LARGEST EFFECT BUT EVEN MORE EFFECT HAS A NON-STRATIFICATION FACTOR: NUMBER OF YOUNG CHILDREN AT HOME HOW TO EXPLAIN THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION? WHAT DOES THE DEEPER NEW QUESTION LOOK LIKE? POSTULATE AN INTELLECTUAL CLIMATE IN THE NEAR SURROUNDING OF PERSONS SO, NOT ONLY A PERSON’S EDUCATION HAS EFFECTS SO DOES THE EDUCATION OF THIS PERSON’S PARENTS AND SO DOES THE EDUCATION OF THIS PERSON’S PARTNER FINDINGS FOR THE NETHERLANDS IN THE 1970s AND 1980s: IF THE EFFECT OF PARENTAL EDUCATION IS PUT AT ONE, THE EFECT OF PARTNER’S EDUCATION IS TWO THE EFFECT OF OWN EDUCATION IS THREE HOW TO DEEPEN THE QUESTION AFTER HAVING SHOWN THE STRONG EFFECT OF PARTNER’S EDUCATION? PEOPLE USUALLY DO IN THEIR LEISURE THINGS WITH OTHERS, ESPECIALLY THEIR PARTNER (AND CHILDREN) SO, ASK IN A SURVEY NOT SIMPLY ABOUT CULTURAL PARTCIPATION BUT ALSO ABOUT CULTURAL PARTICIPATION WITH YOUR PARTNER EFFECTS IN THE NETHERLANDS OF EDUCATION ON CULTURE AROUND 2000 MEN WOMEN JOINT CULTURE OWN 0.55 0.55 0.11 PARTNER 0.39 0.42 0.13 MOTHER 0.10 0.10 NS 0.04 NS FATHER 0.07 NS 0.14 0.02 NS N 2719 2719 809 HOW TO DEEPEN THE QUESTION AFTER HAVING SHOWN THE STRONG EFFECT OF PARTNER’S EDUCATION? IS THIS REALLY A PARTNER EFFECT OR HAVE THE SPOUSES SELECTED ONE ANOTHER BECAUSE OF SIMILAR LEISURE INTERESTS? WHO MARRIES WHOM: EDUCATION OR HIGH BROW CULTURE? FRANCOIS DE SINGLY: AS A RESULT OF THE SHORTER WORK WEEK, LEISURE ACTIVITIES MORE IMPORTANT AS A CRITERION OF PARTNER CHOICE IN POSTINDUSTRIAL THAN IN INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES WE FOLLOWED PIERRE BOURDIEU BY TAKING HIGH BROW CULTURE AS A FORM OF LEISURE HIGH BROW CULTURE WAS MEASURED FOR BOTH PARTNERS RETROSPECTIVELY AT AGE 20 YEARS PERSONS TOLD ABOUT THEMSELVES, PARTNERS TOO BIVARIATE EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY BIVARIATE CULTURAL HOMOGAMY MULTIVARIATE EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY MULTIVARIATE CULTURAL HOMOGAMY CONCLUSION: NO TRENDS AND BOTH FORMS OF HOMOGAMY EQUALLY IMPORTANT EXTRA 1 HOW TO DEEPEN THE QUESTION ABOUT YOUNG CHILDREN? HAVING YOUNG CHILDREN REDUCES LEISURE TIME AND PERSONS HAVE LESS LEISURE TIME TOO WHEN THEY ARE FULL-TIME EMPLOYED AND EVEN LESS SO IF THEIR PARTNER IS FULL-TIME EMPLOYED PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES TO JOINT CULTURAL ACITVITIES ADDING OWN FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT AND PARTNER’S FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT DID NOT ALWAYS YIELD THE EXPECTED RESULTS PARTICULARLY NOT WHEN IT COMES TO JOINT CULTURAL ACTIVITIES THAT WAS TIME RESTRICTIONS I THINK PHYSICAL RESTRICTIONS LIKE BAD HEALTH ON GOING OUT AT NIGHT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED ONLY A FEW PERSONS IN THEIR LEISURE ARE HIGH BROW PEOPLE IN THEIR LEISURE SPORT HIGHLY EDUCATED PERSONS SPORT MORE OLDER PEOPLE SPORT LESS OLDER PEOPLE SPORT LESS BECAUSE OF BAD HEALTH BUT ALREADY QUITE YOUNG PERSONS DO LESS SPORT ALL THIS IS CROSS-SECTIONAL RESEARCH IN 2010 THE SPORTS MONITOR OF THE NETHERLANDS ASKED PEOPLE ABOUT THEIR SPORT CAREER WHICH SPORTS NOW (IN CLUB), WHICH SPORTS AT AGE 16 (IN CLUB) AGE STOPPING THESE SPORTS AND ABOUT THE TIMING OF FOUR LIFE EVENTS: FINISHING EDUCATION LEAVING THE PARENTAL HOME STARTING TO LIVE WITH ANOTHER PERSON HAVING THE FIRST CHILD FOR PERSONS AGED 18 TO 35 YEARS: THE HIGHER A PERSON’S EDUCATION, THE MORE LIKELY THIS PERSON TO SPORT ALL FOUR LIFE EVENTS LOWERED THE POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUING TO SPORT HAVING THE FIRST CHILD DID NOT LOWER THE CHANCES OF CONTINUING FOR WOMEN (BUT HOW HIGH WAS THIS CHANCE STILL?)