INTRODUCTION TO CRISIS MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS 27 September 2016 Introduction content  Crises vs. Complex emergencies  Conflict specific crises  Reactions to crises  Preventing  Managing  Resolving  Rebuilding  Crisis management operations impacts  Actors 2 Crises and crisis management Nature Political, military, humanitarian • Causes may vary • Conflict, natural disaster, technological incident Character Time-sensitive (eliminates instruments such as arbitration/adjudication ) likely escalation or increase of losses 3 Crises and crisis management Responses Direct – among involved actors (negotiations) Indirect – with third party involvement (mediation, operations) Responses by IOs, state actors, NGOs, individuals Response variance Responses involving force – third party intervention Responses short of force – including “threat power, trading power, and giving power” 4 Complex emergency  A better concept of crises which the international community is faced with today and which require a complex responses  Major humanitarian crises of a multi-causal nature requiring a system-wide response  Modern intra-state conflicts are the primary source  No clearly defined battlefield, no clearly define adversary, urban centered warfare, terror tactics, forced displacement and devastating even a low intensity 5 Complex emergency  “A major emergency is a humanitarian crisis in a country, region or society where there is a dramatic disruption in the political, economic and social situation, resulting from internal or external conflict or natural disaster, seriously disrupting the population’s capacity to survive and the national authorities’ capacity to respond, and which requires a consolidated multi-sectoral international response” (IASC of the United Nations)  Revised by OHCA – POLITICAL ELEMENT – above renamed to ‘major emergency’ where local capacities are inadequate (drought) 6 Crisis management in conflict 7 Crisis management scope 8 Crisis management concept  Encompassing following fields?  Crisis prevention  Conflict management  Conflict resolution  Post-conflict reconstruction 9 Crisis management concept  Phases of response  Diplomacy backed by threat (leverage negotiation, sanctions, loss of membership)  Diplomacy backed by force (measure enforcement, ceasefire support)  Force backed by diplomacy (peace enforcement without achieving target consensus)  Diplomacy backed by reconstruction 10 Crisis prevention  Crisis prevention  Constructive activities intended to minimize the probability of disputes and their escalation into the threat of, or use of armed force  Post WWII concept neutralized by CW until the 90s  1992 – An Agenda for Peace 11 Crisis prevention  Structural prevention  Long-term efforts on political, economic, developmental, cultural, civil society level  Emphasis on the indivisibility of security  IO membership, association agreements, cooperation, development programmes  Direct prevention  Immediate efforts during initial crisis phases  Early warning, mediation and shuttle diplomacy  Lackluster in practice 12 Crisis prevention – Early warning  Global and regional initiatives to identify crises prior to potential escalation  UN – 1998 primary initiative, 2000 Prevention team  IGAD – 2002 – CEWARN in the Horn of Africa  AU – 2009 – CEWS Continental EWS  Indicators to watch (WB)  past conflict, low income, high export dependence, political instability, human rights, militarization, ethnic dominance, regional conflict, unemployment rate among young adults, distribution of access to natural resources 13 Direct crisis prevention instruments  1. official diplomacy  Peace conferences, mediation, shuttle diplomacy  2. unofficial diplomacy  Round tables, NGO expert sessions, hallway diplomacy  3. military prevention  Preventive military deployment, non-aggression pacts, arms embargoes, cooperative training  (Sudan)  4. economic  Development aid, economic sanctions, market access  (Eritrea) 14 Direct crisis prevention instruments  5. political  Election monitoring, human rights support, minority rights improvement, interparliamentary cooperation  (Liberia)  6. legal  Security sector reform, war tribunals, arbitrage  (DRC)  7. media and education  International broadcasts, education access development  (Sierra Leone) 15 Managing through negotiating the process of combining conflicting positions into a joint agreement… and is the most common (although not the only) way of preventing, managing, resolving, and transforming conflicts” (Zartman 2009: 322). Aiming for conflict resolution in any stage 2 or more parties – without a facilitator, all parties are interested/invested in outcome concession, compensation, and construction OR positive-sum negotiations and bargaining negotiations 16 Managing through mediating Defined as negotiation facilitated by third, presumably impartial, parties, to help seek a solution the direct parties cannot find themselves Voluntary in selecting mediation, mediator, presence, progress, and most of all propositions and results Dynamic process Cheap cheaper than any other form of third party involvement Absence of coercion Although possibility of “mediation with muscle” 17 Crisis or conflict management?  In the event preventive measures fail  conflict management:  Activities aimed at the armed aspects of crises with the objective of stopping active combat, containing crisis spillover and minimizing destructive impacts  conflict resolution:  Activities aimed at achieving a voluntary mutual peaceful solution to common incompatibilities and a cessation of hostilities  Crucial hierarchy in delaying the resolution of mutual incompatibilities 18 Military crisis management (MCM)  intervention by mainly military, usually multinational force  activities aimed at creating/maintaining a secure environment in order to end a crisis and/or enable peace to be established/maintained  MCM includes:  peacekeeping missions  conflict prevention missions  stabilization and reconstruction missions  humanitarian missions 19 Civilian crisis management (CCM)  intervention by non-military personnel  to prevent further escalation of the crisis and facilitate its resolution  multiple stages and multiple actors  different ways of organizations’ participation in CM  confusion over the definition (police missions, observers?) 20 When to use MCM and when CCM?  decisive: the complexities of each crisis  cases unique  difficult to develop a formula  wide range of considerations:  level of violence  duration of conflict  un/armed conflict  readiness of CCM or MCM units for deployment  presence of a leader  length of the mission  root causes of the conflict  contribution of outside forces  success/failure of past military or civilian units 21 22 Post-conflict reconstruction  Activities aimed at renewing the socio-economic structure of the society and the establishment of adequate conditions for the secure and peaceful development of society  Key concepts:  System inclusion  External assistance  Sustainability after self reliance  Reconstruction serves as structural prevention 23 Phases and priorities  2002 Post-Conflict Reconstruction (CSIS/AUSA)  Nation building – synonym for post-conflict reconstruction? Or for democratization and westernization? – only a part of post-conflict reconstruction  3 phases  Initial – immediately after cessation of active combat, strategic  Transformational – institution and capacity building, social inclusion and economic recovery  Support – support for consolidation of self-reliance 24 Phases and priorities  4 pillars  Security – crucial to any success  Civilian security, DDR, buffer zones, civilian control over armed forces, training  Justice and Reconcilliation – establishment of rule of law  Preventing reprisals, interim justice, human right legislation, police training  Social and economic well-being – aid and resources distribution  Elementary food and water security, repatriations, infrastructure reconstruction, requalification training, subsidies and investments  Governance and participation – transitive authority support  NGO cooperation, interim government support, election preparations, legislation expertise transfer, civil society support 25 Sources  EU (1997): Treaty on the European Union, consolidated version, on-line text (http://eur- lex.europa.eu/en/treaties/dat/11997D/htm/11997D.html).  Giegerich, B. (2008): European military crisis management. Connecting ambitions and reality, Oxon: Routledge.  Keukeleire, S. – MacNaughtan, J. (2008): The Foreign Policy of the European Union, Hampshire and New York, Palgrave Macmillan.  Kupferschmidt, F. (2007): Crisis Management. A Combined Effort with Civil and Military Means, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, on-line text (http://www.swp-berlin.org/common/get_document.php?asset_id=3694).  Lindborg, C. (2002): European Approaches to Civilian Crisis Management, British American Security Information Council, on-line text (http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Research/2002ccm.pdf).  Military Technology (2006): Crisis Management – A Fundamental Security Task, No. 9, s. 57-65.  Mölling, Ch. (2008): Comprehensive Approaches to International Crisis Management, CSS Analyses in Security Policy, Vol. 3, No. 42, s. 1-3, on-line text (http://se2.isn.ch/serviceengine/FileContent?serviceID=10&fileid=0F000603-3181-4CFD-9153- D8AADAAF6337&lng=en).  Mölling, Ch. – Major, C. (2009): Comprehensive Approaches to Crisis Management. Analytical perspectives and operative concepts of international organisations, on-line text (www.unc.edu/euce/eusa2009/papers/mölling_11D.pdf).  NATO (2002): AJP-01(B) Allied Joint Doctrine.  NATO (2001): AJP-3.4.1. Peace Support Operations.  NATO (2003): AJP-9, NATO Civil-Military Co-operation (CIMIC) Doctrine, on-line text (http://www.nato.int/ims/docu/ajp- 9.pdf).  NATO (2006): Comprehensive Political Guidance, on-line text (http://www.nato.int/docu/basictxt/b061129e.htm).  UN DPKO (2008): United Nations Peacekeeping Operations. Principles and Guidelines, on-line text (http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/dpko/).  von Kielmansegg, S. (2007): The Meaning of Petersberg: Some Considerations on the Legal Scope of ESDP Operations, Common Market Law Review, Vol XLIV, No 3, pp. 629-648. 26