Ideological Paradox Bureaucracy and Political Parties U.S. and Israeli governments •From 1981 to 1984 Likud (Begin) •From 1984 to 1988 unity government of Alignment and Likud (Peres and Shamir) •From 1988-1992 Likud (Shamir) •The Twelfth Knesset saw the rise of the ultra-orthodox religious parties as a significant force in Israeli politics, and as a crucial "swing" element which could determine which of the large 2 secular parties (Likud, Alignment) would get to form the coalition government. Secular right-wing •The Likud was formed as a secular party as an alliance of several right-wing parties prior to the 1973 elections: Herut, Liberal Party, Free Centre, National List, Movement for Greater Israel. (5) •Herut had been the largest right-wing party. •It had been in coalition with the Liberals since 1965 (Gahal) with Herut as the senior partner. •Herut remained the senior partner in the new grouping, named Likud, or "Consolidation", since it was the consolidation of the Israeli right. Ideology •Likud emphasizes national security policy based on a strong military force when threatened with continued enmity against Israel. •It has shown reluctance to negotiate with its neighbors whom it believes continue to seek the destruction of the Jewish state. I[11] •As of 2014, the party remains divided between moderates and hard-liners Ideology •Historically, Likud advocated free enterprise and nationalism, but it has compromised these ideals in practice, as its constituency has changed. •Its support for populist economic programs are at odds with its free enterprise tradition but are meant to serve its largely nationalistic, lower-income voters in small towns and urban neighborhoods.[ •While the party has played into the traditional sympathies of its voter base, the origins and ideology of Likud are very secular. •Religious parties have come to view it as a more comfortable coalition partner than Labor. Policies •The Likud party platform since mid-1990s claims to support free market capitalist and liberal agenda. Practically speaking it is a mixed economic policy. •VAT, income and corporate taxes reduced. •Free trade with the EU and USA, dismantled ‘monopoly’ operating in Israel. •Additionally, privatized several government-owned companies, e.g., El Al and Bank Leumi and has tried to privatize land in Israel, (symbolically owned by the state in the name of the Jewish people). Labor-Alignment •Labor party •From 1977-1991 Alignment between centre-left parties •Labor's original socialist ideology evolved into a program that supports both a market economy and social welfare programs. •Since 1992 the party's foreign policy retains a strong orientation toward the US with its security policy maintaining a permanent peace with the Palestinians only based on agreements that are enforceable. •“land for peace” Reagan Revolution •1981-1989 Ronald Reagan (Republican) U.S. president. •Conservative ideology •political •economic Paradox? •Conservative vs. secular conservative? •religious conservatives in Israel have own parties •tension between U.S. secular conservatives and market conservatives •Peace Process •Schultz Plan (1988) •Economy (1987-88) Restriction •Departments •personality (Baker) •inter-office/departmental rivalry •famous Weinberger vs. Schultz •Interest Groups •AIPAC vs. J-street •AAI (Arab-American Institute) Paradox •AWAC sale •Iraq nuclear reactor (pre-emptive doctrine) •1982 Lebanon invasion •Israel as aggressor •Foreign Military Aid •Sudan-Soviet refugees •“global” Jewry •Settlements (rainbow over an ancient land) MOU’s •October 23, 1975: Memorandum of Agreement regarding joint political, security and economic cooperation. •December 10, 1982: General security of information agreement. •April 21, 1988: Memorandum of Agreement on Security Cooperation •April 30, 1996: Counterterrorism cooperation accord to enhance capabilities to deter, prevent, respond to and investigate international terrorist acts or threats of international terrorist acts against Israel or the United States. •October 31, 1998: Memorandum of Agreement on Security Cooperation •February 8, 2007: Memorandum of Mutual Understanding on Homeland Security •Jewish Virtual Library: https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/MOUs.html https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/MOUs.html Mixed & Missed Signals •1988 (Alignment to Likud) •settlements •1991 Gulf War •1996 (Labor to Likud) •Oslo II •1999-2001 (Labor to Likud) •Camp David with Clinton, Barak and Arafat Misunderstood? •“F_K, the jews, they don’t vote for us anyway” •James Baker III, Secretary of State •“Punishing us, like a child” •M. Begin •After 1979 and especially after 1994 different approaches: legal vs. diplomatic Internal-External Variables •Coalition and Unity Israeli governments •religious parties in Israel as “kingmakers” •smaller parties and personalities •Divided government in the U.S. •Democratic president and Republican Congress or vise versa. •Israeli-Palestinian peace process •extremists and militant extremists hinder progress Promise Denied •1991 Madrid •1993 Oslo Peace Accords •1997 Hebron •West Bank withdrawal of Israeli troops •2000 Camp David Readings •George P. Schultz Turmoil and Triumph: My Years as Secretary of State, New York: Scribner, 1993. •Josef Federman (2014-12-02). "Israeli government crumbles; new election planned". Associated Press.“Netanyahu's own Likud party is divided between more-centrist old timers and a young guard of hard-line ideologues.” •Dennis Ross (books and articles)