Dr. Houman A. Sadri
Associate Professor of International Relations
Coordinator of Model United Nations Program
University of Central Florida
Orlando, Florida, USA
Houman.Sadri@ucf.edu
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Outline
1. Introduction
1.1. After the end of Cold War
1.2. Geopolitical Importance
1.3. Energy Resource
1.4. Military Significance
2. Challenges of the security
1.1. Separatism
1.2. Internal Instability
1.3. International Rivalry
3. “Clash of Civilization” Paradigm
4. Conclusions
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1. Introduction
1.1. After the end of Cold War
1.2. Geopolitical Importance
1.3. Energy Resource
1.4. Military Significance
3
1.1. After the end of Cold War
End of Cold War
1991 1992 1996
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1. Introduction
1.1. After the end of Cold War
1.2. Geopolitical Importance
1.3. Energy Resource
1.4. Military Significance
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1.2. Geopolitical Importance
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/ref_maps/pdf/political_world.pdf
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1. Introduction
1.1. After the end of Cold War
1.2. Geopolitical Importance
1.3. Energy Resource
1.4. Military Significance
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1.3. Energy Resources
8
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/ref_maps/pdf/political_world.pdf
1.3. Energy Resources
Source: http://www.azerbaijan.az/_Economy/_OilStrategy/pipelines/btc.html 9
1.3. Energy Resourceshttps://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch1en/appl1en/passagesmiddleeast.html
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1.3. Energy Resourceshttps://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Middle-East.jpg
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1. Introduction
1.1. After the end of Cold War
1.2. Geopolitical Importance
1.3. Energy Resource
1.4. Military Significance
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1.4. Military Significance
Kazakhstan
13https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/ref_maps/pdf/political_world.pdf
2. Challenges of Security
2.1. Separatism
2.1.1. Economic implications
2.1.2. Ethnic tensions
2.1.3. Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
2.1.4. Unexpected impact of the Georgian’s separatists
conflicts
2.1.5. Unexpected impact of the ethnic and religious
tensions, the case of the Azeri and Turkey relationship
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2. Challenges of Security
2.2. Internal Instability
2.2.1. Political Instability:
2.2.1.1. The Super-presidential
2.2.1.2. Political Rights and Civil Rights
2.2.2. Economic Instability:
2.2.2.1. Azeri Economic Instability
2.2.2.2. Armenian Isolation
2.2.2.3. Georgian Economic Collapse
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2. Challenges of Security:
2.3. International Rivalry
2.3.1. Global Energy Politics
2.3.2. Rivalry between Global Security
Alignments and Regional Organizations:
2.3.3. Political Rivalry between Global and
Regional Powers
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Analyzing Clash of Civilizations
 “Global Security Watch—The Caucasus States”
 By Dr. Houman A. Sadri, Professor of Int’l Relations.
 April 2010, Praeger Publishers, New York, USA
 Hard Cover, 270 Pages
 ISBN: 978-0-313-37980-2
 Summary: This insider perspective
examines the main sources of security
threat and political instability in the
Caucasus states of Azerbaijan, Armenia,
and Georgia, as it tests the “Clash of Civilizations” view. 17
3. Clash of Civilizations: Testing!
States Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Iran Turkey Russia USA
Armenia 1 Negative
Expected
Neutral
Unexpected
Positive
Unexpected
Negative
Expected
Positive
Expected
Neutral
Unexpected
Azerbaijan 1 Positive
Unexpected
Negative
Unexpected
Positive
Expected
Negative
Expected
Positive
Unexpected
Georgia 1 Positive
Unexpected
Positive
Unexpected
Negative
Unexpected
Positive
Unexpected
Iran 1 Neutral
Unexpected
Positive
Unexpected
Negative
Expected
Turkey 1 Positive
Unexpected
Positive
Unexpected
Russia 1 Negative
Expected
USA 1
Source: Sadri, Houman A. 2010. Global Security Watch: The Caucasus States. California: Praeger. p 143 18
3. Clash of Civilizations
Levels of
Relationships
Clash of Civilizations
Expected Unexpected
Global Level 4 7
Regional Level 2 5
Neighboring State-toState
1 2
Total 7 14
Source: Sadri, Houman A. 2010. Global Security Watch: The Caucasus States. California: Praeger. p 146
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4. Conclusions
4.1. The Clash of Civilizations concept failed to
predict state relationships in the region.
4.2. Historically, the concept of the Great Game
and the Balance of Powers has been applied to
the region.
4.3. The most prudent explanation of the
causes of security threat for the Caucasus states
must rely on the three common factors :
4.3.1. Separatism
4.3.2. Internal instability, and
4.3.3. International rivalry.
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