SELECTING AMERICAN PRESIDENTS BY ACCIDENT OR DESIGN?
A) The early 1970s
a) Candidate selection re: Commission on Party Structure and Delegate Selection
(McGovern-Fraser Commission) for 1972.
1) Required written party rules governing delegate selection;
2) All delegates required to stand for election (75% by congressional
districts/10% by state level appointment;
3) Required wide-spread notice that the process was taking place at places
of easy access and at uniform dates and times;
4) Affirmative action for blacks, women, and young people (>age 30);
5) Proportional representation.
Tinkering and coping:
6) Three month window and front-loading of the election calendar—
—Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary
—Super Tuesday
—Continued movement toward a defacto national primary election
b) Public funding of presidential elections beginning with 1976.
B) Combined impact
a) Background or demographic characteristics of national convention delegates
was unchanged, even exaggerated!
1) Pushed Democratic AND Republican national convention delegates to
the extremes of their respective national political parties.
2) Take major political issues in 1980 and 1988.
b) VOTER TURNOUT problem for primary elections and political party caucuses
v. national general elections.
C) The example of 1992
a) Republican President George H.W. Bush, the most popular president in the
history of public opinion polling through that time, and 89% approval rating on
how he was doing his job between 28 February and 3 March 1991.
Scared out many substantial Democratic presidential candidates (e.g., U.S.
Senators Al Gore and John D. Rockefeller IV; New York Governor Mario
Cuomo; U.S. Representative Richard Gebhardt; and Rev. Jesse Jackson, to
name a few) and it opened the door for Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton v. U.S.
Senators Paul Tsongas (MA) and Bob Kerrey (NEB), former California
Governor Jerry Brown and Virginia Governor L. Douglas Wilder.
b) Why Bill Clinton?
1) Gennifer Flowers revelation on January 21, 1992, in the tabloid Star;
ROTC promise to attend the University of Arkansas, but he never did
attend as revealed in The Wall Street Journal on February 6, 1992;
but...
2) “Ground rules” for media reporting had changed from candidate to
accuser bearing the burden of proof;
3) Public attention was focused on the economy;
4) The election calendar worked to his advantage—
—January 21, 1992, filing deadline to get on the ballot had passed in 15
states with 28% of the Democratic National Convention delegates;
—February 6, 1992, the filing deadline for ballot access had passed in
18 states with 40% of the Democratic National Convention delegates
before Clinton acknowledged ROTC report on February 12.
5) Adversity actually helped Bill Clinton because the Gennifer Flowers
allegation gave him NAME RECOGNITION without content, as he
soared to 86% among all voters and to 89% among Democrats and
Democratic leaning potential voters.
—Election support rose from 17 to 42% in three weeks, giving Bill
Clinton a commanding lead!
D) A Democrat in the White House, and the election process will not change. Why?
a) Because Americans do not participate in the most important phase of the
presidential candidate selection process, the primary elections and caucuses;
b) Because the presidential candidate selection reforms cannot be reversed by
the Democratic Party because they were written into the state laws governing
the nomination process; and
c) Because the election of delegates IS DEMOCRATIC.
CONCLUSION: The broader pattern of political party support (i.e., increasing numbers of
Republican Party affiliates from the South and equally increasing numbers of Democratic
Party affiliates from the Northeast) will continue into the future and favor Republican
candidates because its region of greatest support is growing while that for Democrats
continues to decline in population.
WE DEMANDED A REFORMED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SELECTION PROCESS;
WE HAVE DONE IT TO OURSELVES WITH NO TURNING BACK!
State Date Filing Deadline Primary/Caucus Type Democratic*Republican**
South Carolina February 20, 2016 September 30, 2015 Republican Primary Open 31
Arkansas March 1, 2016 November 9, 2015 Primary Open 32 22
Texas March 1, 2016 November 10, 2015 Primary Open 208 118
Louisiana March 5, 2016 November 20, 2015 Primary Closed 54 28
New Hampshire February 9, 2016 November 27, 2015 Primary Mixed 24 16
Illinois March 15, 2016 November 30, 2015 Primary Open 160 64
Tennessee March 1, 2016 December 1, 2015 Primary Open 68 37
Oklahoma March 1, 2016 December 2, 2015 Primary Closed 38 25
South Carolina February 27, 2016 December 7, 2015 Democratic Primary Open 51
Idaho March 8, 2016 December 9, 2015 Republican Primary Closed 16
Florida March 15, 2016 December 15, 2015 Primary Closed 207 91
Virginia March 1, 2016 December 17, 2015 Primary Open 95 43
Michigan March 8, 2016 December 20, 2015 Primary Closed 133 52
North Carolina March 15, 2016 December 29, 2015 Primary Mixed 107 49
Missouri March 15, 2016 December 30, 2015 Primary Open 15 34
Nevada February 20, 2016 January 1, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 31
Georgia March 1, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Open 98 52
Massachusetts March 1, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Mixed 95 37
Ohio March 15, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Mixed 148 58
Minnesota March 1, 2016 January 4, 2016 Caucus Open 78 34
Vermont March 1, 2016 January 4, 2016 Primary Open 15 13
Alabama March 1, 2016 January 6, 2016 Primary Open 52 31
Kentucky March 5, 2016 January 7, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed 28
Hawaii March 26, 2016 January 8, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 22
Nevada February 23, 2016 January 9, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed 22
Colorado March 1, 2016 January 9, 2016 Caucus Closed 64 31
Mississippi March 8, 2016 January 9, 2016 Primary Open 36 22
Iowa February 1, 2016 January 22, 2016 Caucus Closed 46 22
Rhode Island April 26, 2016 January 23, 2016 Primary Mixed 22 16
Kentucky May 17, 2016 January 26, 2016 Primary Closed 47 28
Alaska March 26, 2016 January 29, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 14
Kansas March 5, 2016 January 30, 2016 Caucus Closed 33 22
West Virginia May 10, 2015 January 30, 2016 Primary Mixed 26 19
Alaska March 1, 2016 January 31, 2016 Republican Mixed Closed 13
Nebraska March 5, 2016 February 1, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 26
Wisconsin April 5, 2016 February 2, 2016 Primary Open 79 34
Arizona March 22, 2016 February 3, 2016 Primary Open 63 37
Maryland April 26, 2016 February 3, 2016 Primary Closed 78 34
Utah March 22, 2016 February 5, 2016 Caucus Closed 24 22
Indiana May 3, 2016 February 5, 2016 Primary Open 70 37
Hawaii March 8, 2016 February 16, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed 16
Pennsylvania April 26, 2016 February 16, 2016 Primary Closed 160 64
Maine March 6, 2016 February 21, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 25
Convention Delegates by Filing Deadlines
2016 Presidential Primaries and Caucuses for Elected National
Nebraska May 10, 2016 February 25, 2016 Republican Primary Closed 19
Washington March 26, 2016 February 26, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 86
Delaware April 26, 2016 February 26, 2016 Primary Closed 17 13
New York April 19, 2016 March 1, 2016 Primary Closed 233 91
Connecticut April 26, 2016 March 7, 2016 Primary Closed 51 25
Montana June 7, 2016 March 7, 2016 Primary Open 15 13
Oregon May 17, 2016 March 8, 2916 Primary Closed 52 25
Wyoming April 9, 2016 March 10, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 13
Idaho March 22, 2016 March 14, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 20
Washington, DC June 14, 2016 March 15, 2016 Primary Closed 17 16
New Mexico June 7, 2016 March 17, 2016 Primary Closed 29 19
California June 7, 2016 March 25, 2016 Primary Closed 405 169
South Dakota June 7, 2016 March 29, 201 Primary Closed 15 13
New Jersey June 7, 2016 April 4, 2016 Primary Mixed 110 46
North Dakota June 7, 2016 May 2, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 14
Maine March 5, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 16
North Dakota March 1, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6
Wyoming March 1, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 13
Washington March 5, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 40
American Samoa March 8, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Open 6
Guam March 12, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6
Northern Marianas March 12, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Closed 6 6
Virgin Islands March 12, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Open 6
Puerto Rico March 13, 2016 TBD Republican Primary Open 20
Northern Marianas March 15, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6
Guam May 7, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Closed 6
Puerto Rico June 5, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 51
Virgin Islands June 5, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 6
American Samoa March 1, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 6 6
3696 1898
Democratic Republican
1,192 (32%) 626 (22%)
January 9, 2016 1,831 (50%) 954 (33%)
TBD = To Be Determined
December 30, 2015
State Date Filing Deadline Primary/Caucus Type Democratic* Republican**
Iowa February 1, 2016 January 22, 2016 Caucus Closed 46 22
New Hampshire February 9, 2016 November 27, 2015 Primary Mixed 24 16
Nevada February 20, 2016 January 1, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 31
South Carolina February 20, 2016 September 30, 2015 Republican Primary Open 31
Nevada February 23, 2016 January 9, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed 22
South Carolina February 27, 2016 December 7, 2015 Democratic Primary Open 51
Alabama March 1, 2016 January 6, 2016 Primary Open 52 31
Alaska March 1, 2016 January 31, 2016 Republican Mixed Closed 13
American Samoa March 1, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 6 6
Arkansas March 1, 2016 November 9, 2015 Primary Open 32 22
Colorado March 1, 2016 January 9, 2016 Caucus Closed 64 31
Georgia March 1, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Open 98 52
Massachusetts March 1, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Mixed 95 37
Minnesota March 1, 2016 January 4, 2016 Caucus Open 78 34
North Dakota March 1, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6
Oklahoma March 1, 2016 December 2, 2015 Primary Closed 38 25
Tennessee March 1, 2016 December 1, 2015 Primary Open 68 37
Texas March 1, 2016 November 10, 2015 Primary Open 208 118
Vermont March 1, 2016 January 4, 2016 Primary Open 15 13
Virginia March 1, 2016 December 17, 2015 Primary Open 95 43
Wyoming March 1, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 13
Kentucky March 5, 2016 January 7, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed 28
Kansas March 5, 2016 January 30, 2016 Caucus Closed 33 22
Louisiana March 5, 2016 November 20, 2015 Primary Closed 54 28
Maine March 5, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 16
Nebraska March 5, 2016 February 1, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 26
Washington March 5, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 40
Maine March 6, 2016 February 21, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 25
American Samoa March 8, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Open 6
Hawaii March 8, 2016 February 16, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed 16
Idaho March 8, 2016 December 9, 2015 Republican Primary Closed 16
Michigan March 8, 2016 December 20, 2015 Primary Closed 133 52
Mississippi March 8, 2016 January 9, 2016 Primary Open 36 22
Guam March 12, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6
Northern Marianas March 12, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Closed 6 6
Virgin Islands March 12, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Open 6
Puerto Rico March 13, 2016 TBD Republican Primary Open 20
Florida March 15, 2016 December 15, 2015 Primary Closed 207 91
Illinois March 15, 2016 November 30, 2015 Primary Open 160 64
Missouri March 15, 2016 December 30, 2015 Primary Open 15 34
North Carolina March 15, 2016 December 29, 2015 Primary Mixed 107 49
Northern Marianas March 15, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6
Ohio March 15, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Mixed 148 58
Arizona March 22, 2016 February 3, 2016 Primary Open 63 37
2016 Presidential Primaries and Caucuses for Elected National
Convention Delegates by Contest Date
Idaho March 22, 2016 March 14, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 20
Utah March 22, 2016 February 5, 2016 Caucus Closed 24 22
Alaska March 26, 2016 January 29, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 14
Hawaii March 26, 2016 January 8, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 22
Washington March 26, 2016 February 26, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 86
Wisconsin April 5, 2016 February 2, 2016 Primary Open 79 34
Wyoming April 9, 2016 March 10, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 13
New York April 19, 2016 March 1, 2016 Primary Closed 233 91
Connecticut April 26, 2016 March 7, 2016 Primary Closed 51 25
Delaware April 26, 2016 February 26, 2016 Primary Closed 17 13
Maryland April 26, 2016 February 3, 2016 Primary Closed 78 34
Pennsylvania April 26, 2016 February 16, 2016 Primary Closed 160 64
Rhode Island April 26, 2016 January 23, 2016 Primary Mixed 22 16
Indiana May 3, 2016 February 5, 2016 Primary Open 70 37
Guam May 7, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Closed 6
Nebraska May 10, 2016 February 25, 2016 Republican Primary Closed 19
West Virginia May 10, 2015 January 30, 2016 Primary Mixed 26 19
Kentucky May 17, 2016 January 26, 2016 Primary Closed 47 28
Oregon May 17, 2016 March 8, 2916 Primary Closed 52 25
Puerto Rico June 5, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 51
Virgin Islands June 5, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 6
California June 7, 2016 March 25, 2016 Primary Closed 405 169
Montana June 7, 2016 March 7, 2016 Primary Open 15 13
New Jersey June 7, 2016 April 4, 2016 Primary Mixed 110 46
New Mexico June 7, 2016 March 17, 2016 Primary Closed 29 19
North Dakota June 7, 2016 May 2, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 14
South Dakota June 7, 2016 March 29, 201 Primary Closed 15 13
District of Columbia June 14, 2016 March 15, 2016 Primary Closed 17 16
Total 3696 1898
Democrats RepublicansDemocrats Republicans
1-Mar-2016 1,001 (22%) 572 (23%)
5-Mar-2016 1,114 (25%) 706 (29%)
8-Mar-2016 1,308 (29%) 818 (33%)
15-Mar-2016 1,951 (44%) 1,158 (47%)
26-Mar-2016 2,180 (49%) 1,217 (49%)
**The Green Papers: Republican Detailed Delegate Allocation - 2016 (accessed October 17, 2015)
http://thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml
Democratic National Convention Delegates = 4,483; Republican National Convention Delegates = 2,470
Sources:
Important dates in the 2016 presidential race - Ballotpedia (accessed October 17, 2016);
http://ballotpedia.org/important_dates_in_the_2016_presidential_race
Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato's Crystal Ball (accessed October 17, 2015);
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-real-presidential-deadlines/
http://thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-Alloc.phtml
*The Green Papers: Democratic Detailed Delegate Allocation - 2016 (accessed October 17, 2015)
Mainstream G.O.P. Field of Three Faces
Brutal Delegate Math
Nate Cohn, The New York Times Online Edition, February 18, 2016, A1.
Photo
At a campaign event for Marco Rubio in Aiken, S.C., on Wednesday. CreditEric Thayer
for The New York Times
If the Republican Party remains divided for much longer, it will start getting more
difficult for a mainstream candidate to win the nomination.
Yet Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and John Kasich all have incentives to stay in the race,
preventing the party from getting behind one candidate.
On Super Tuesday, March 1, 25 percent of the delegates to the Republican national
convention will be awarded. If the mainstream field hasn’t been narrowed by that point,
it will become very hard to avoid serious damage to the candidate who ultimately
emerges as the party’s anointed favorite. The top mainstream candidate could easily fall
more than 100 delegates short of what he might have earned in a winnowed field. He
would even be in danger of earning no delegates at all in several of the largest states
because of one number: 20 percent.
That’s the threshold for earning delegates in Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and
Vermont, which combine to award 57 percent of the delegates on Super Tuesday and 14
percent of all of the delegates in the Republican race. If candidates don’t get 20 percent
of the vote, they get no delegates (unless they finish in the top two of a congressional
district, in which case they get a delegate). Oklahoma and Arkansas, worth an additional
13 percent of Super Tuesday delegates, have a 15 percent threshold.
It is easy to imagine how none of the mainstream candidates pass this threshold. None
reached 20 percent of the vote in New Hampshire; they’re failing to reach 20 percent in
South Carolina polls; and they might fall short again on Super Tuesday if the field
doesn’t narrow further.
Worse still for them, a quirk in the rules would send the delegates forfeited by the
mainstream candidates straight to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. That’s because most
Super Tuesday states allocate their statewide delegates proportionately among the
candidates who clear the threshold for earning delegates; if only two do so, they will
split all of the delegates awarded statewide. The rest of the delegates are generally
awarded by congressional district — usually two to the winner and one to the secondplace
finisher, again most likely locking out an establishment candidate in third place.
The imperative to narrow the field quickly raises the stakes heading into South Carolina
and Nevada, the last chance for voters to elevate one of the mainstream candidates
before Super Tuesday.
The difference between falling short of the threshold in these seven states and clearing
it, even if only barely, is approximately 70 delegates. It’s not enough to preclude a
candidate like Mr. Rubio from winning the nomination. But it would require him to fare
very well from that point on to finish with a majority of delegates; he might need as
much as 70 percent of the outstanding delegates to win, a plausible figure given the
party’s delegate rules but nonetheless a daunting one.
The delegate threshold challenge poses big questions for campaigns, which will have to
choose between strategies that maximize delegates and those that maximize
momentum. That’s because many of the conservative, Southern states where the
mainstream candidates need to clear delegate thresholds on Super Tuesday aren’t
necessarily the same states where they have the best chance to win.
Texas, Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia are all fairly conservative states where Mr.
Trump or Mr. Cruz will be favored. Texas is also Mr. Cruz’s home state. The mainstream
candidates might have a better shot to win in states like Virginia, Minnesota,
Massachusetts or Colorado, where the delegate thresholds are lower (10 percent or less)
or nonexistent.
Supporters of Donald Trump in North Augusta, S.C., on Wednesday.CreditStephen B.
Morton for The New York Times
The mainstream candidates are working out this calculus: Is it worth it for a campaign
to spend millions for third place and 21 percent of the vote in Texas, which would yield
many more delegates than third place and 19 percent? Or is it better to spend the money
to win states like Massachusetts or Virginia, where the candidates are all but assured to
win a modest number of delegates and won’t necessarily earn many more delegates by
spending big to win?
The problem is greatest for the Rubio campaign, which would seem to have the potential
to clear thresholds everywhere. But it has strong incentives to win races outright in
order to help narrow the field quickly after Super Tuesday. The imperative to post
victories on Super Tuesday could easily tempt Mr. Rubio’s team and its allies to focus on
winning states, even at the risk of losing delegates in the South.
That cost wouldn’t be enough to prevent a candidate like Mr. Rubio from winning the
nomination. The G.O.P.’s delegate rules and primaries calendar make it surprisingly
easy for a candidate to make a big comeback after Super Tuesday: The states become
more favorable to establishment-backed candidates, and the rules permit states to
apportion more of their delegates to the winner.
Here’s an easy way to think about it: The potential loss of 70 delegates would be roughly
equivalent to the delegates in a large winner-take-all state like Ohio (66). So a
mainstream candidate can make up for his failures on Super Tuesday merely by winning
a winner-take-all state that he might not have otherwise counted on.
That’s why the 70 delegates lost by falling short of the threshold is nothing to ignore,
either. Assuming that Mr. Rubio, Mr. Cruz and Mr. Trump’s support roughly followed
the demographic pattern from New Hampshire and Iowa, Mr. Rubio could win an
outright majority of delegates if he won around 24 percent of the vote on Super Tuesday
and then did as well as Mitt Romney in 2012 for the rest of the primary season.
The fact that Mr. Rubio has failed to do as well as Mr. Romney so far is reason to
question whether he would be expected to do it later.
A version of this article appears in print on February 18, 2016, on page A3 of the New York
edition with the headline: Remaining G.O.P. Field Faces Brutal Delegate Math.