Climate change and fossil fuels Filip Černoch cernoch@jTLail.muni.cz Climate change mechanism • Temperature of the planet is rising • 0,8°C in last 130 years, more than half of that in last 35 years. • GHG concentration is increasing. • C02 concentration increased by 40% since pre-industrial time, methane by 150%, nitrous oxide by 20%. • This increase is caused by human activity. • There is a relationship between GHG and energy in the atmosphere (greenhouse gas effect). • Some uncertainty due to the complexity of the issue, positive and negative feedbacks. Greenhouse gas emissions (C02e) by gas, World Global greenhouse gas emissions by gas source, measured in thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (kt CChe). Gases are converted to their COze values based on their global warming potential factors. HFC, PFC and SF6 are collectively known as 'F-gases'. Our World in Data 40 million HFC gases PFC gases — SFe gases — Nitrous oxide (N2O) - Methane (CH4) 30 million 20 million 10 million Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 1975 1980 1985 Source: World Bank - World Development Indicators (WDI) 1995 2000 2005 2012 OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA Global carbon dioxide emissions by sector (Gg CO2) Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, measured in gigagrams of CO2 per year. 30 million 25 million 20 million 15 million 10 million 5 million OurWorld in Data Other sources Waste Residential & commercial Industry — Transport Agriculture, Land Use & Forestry — Energy 1995 Source: UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) 2005 2010 OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA Methane emissions by sector (Gg C02e) Breakdown of total global methane (ChU) emissions by sector, measured in gigagrams of carbon-dioxide equivalents (CChe). Carbon dioxide equivalents measures the total greenhouse gas potential of the full combination of gases, weighted by their relative warming impacts. OurWorld in Data 5 million 4 million 3 million 2 million 1 million — Other sources Residential & commercial Industry — Land use — Agriculture — Energy 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 Source: UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA Nitrous oxide emissions by sector (Gg CC^e), World Breakdown of total global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by sector, measured in gigagrams of carbon-dioxide equivalents (COze). Carbon dioxide equivalents measures the total greenhouse gas potential of the full combination of gases, weighted by their relative warming impacts. OurWorld in Data Possible Effects of Climate Change Eventual Temperature Rise Relative to Pre-Industrial Temperatures Type of Impact 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C Freshwater Supplies Small glaciers in the Andes Potential water supply decrease ofSerious droughts in southern Potential water supply decrease ofLarge glaciers in Himalayas disappear, threatening water 20—30% in some regions Europe every 10 years. 1—4 30—50% in southern Africa and possibly disappear, affecting 'A of supplies for 50 million people (Southern Africa and billion more people suffer water Mediterranean China's population Mediterranean) shortages Food and Agriculture Modest increase in yields in Declines in crop yields in tropic al 150—550 million more people at Yields decline by 15-35% in Increase in ocean acidity possibly temperature regions regions (5—10% in Africa) risk of hunger. Africa. Some entire regions out ofreduces fish stocks Yields likely to peak at higher agricultural production latitudes Human Health At least 300,000 die each year 40—60 million more exposed to 1—3 million more potentially Up to 80 million more people Further disease increase and from climate—related diseases. malaria in Africa people die annually from exposed to malaria in Africa substantial burdens on health care Reduction in winter mortality malnutrition services in high latitudes Coastal Areas Increased damage from coastal Up to 10 million more people Up to 170 million more people Up to 300 million more people Sea-level rise threatens major flooding exposed to coastal flooding exposed to coastal flooding exposed to coastal flooding cities such as New York, Tokyo, and London Ecosystems At least 10% of land species 15^0% of species potentially 20—50% of species potentially Lossofhalfof Arctic tundra Significant facing extinction. Increased face extinction face extinction Widespread loss of coral reefs extinctions across the globe wildfire risk Possible onset of collapse of Amazon forest Climate change as a public policy problem Is uniquely global • Environmental problems usually regional (Beijing's smog, waste from EU's industry). • Climate change - impacts may be regional, but phenomenon is global. • The global nature of climate change also complicates any sensible climate policy. It is tough to get voters to enact pollution limits on themselves, when those limits benefit them and only them, but it is tougher to get voters to enact pollution limits on themselves if the costs are felt domestically, but the benefits are global = a planetary free riding problem. • Impact of climate change is not evenly distributed among regions and countries. Different vulnerability Climate change as a public policy problem Is uniquely long-term • The past decade was the warmest in human history. The one before was the second-warmest. The one before was the third-warmest. • Changes are evident. Arctic sea ice has lost half of its mass, three-quaters of this volume in only the past thirty years. • But the worst consequences of climate change are still remote, often caged in global, long-term averages. The worst effects are still far off — but avoiding these predictions would entail acting now. Climate change as a public policy problem Is uniquely it revet sible • Stopping emitting carbon now we still would have decades of warming and centuries of sea-level rise locked in. Full melting of large West Antarctic ice sheets may be unstoppable. • Over 2/3 of the excess C02 in the atmosphere that wasn't there when humans started burning fossil fuels will still be present a hundred years from now. Over 1/3 will be there in 1000 years. Climate change as a public policy problem Is uniquely uncertain. • Last time concentration of carbon dioxide were as high as they are today, at 400 ppm, at Pliocene (3 million years ago). Average temperatures back then were around 1-2,5°C warmer than today, sea levels were up to 20 meters higher, and camels lived in Canada. • We wouldn't expect any of these dramatic changes today. The greenhouse effect needs decades to centuries to come into full force, ice sheets need decades to centuries to melt, global sea levels take decades to centuries to adjust accordingly. C02 concentrations may have been at 400 ppm 3 million years ago, whereas rising sea levels lagged decades or centuries behind. Climate change as a public policy problem It is uniquely expensive • Around current climates masive investments and industrial infrastructures is build, that makes temperature increases costiy. • The current models estimates that warming of 1°C will cost 0,5% of global GDP, 2°C around 1% GDP, 4°C around 4% GDP • We could think about damages as a percentage of output in any given year. At a 3 percent annual growth rate, global economic output will increase almost twenty-fold in a hudred years • Or lets assume that damages affect output growth rates faster than output levels. Climate change clearly affects labor productivity, esp. in already hot countries. Then the cumulative effects of damages could be much worse over time. Important Events in International Climate Change Negotiations Year, Location Outcome 1992, Rio de Janeiro 1995, Berlin 1997, Kyoto 2001, Bonn 2009, Copenhagen 2011, Durban UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries agree to reduce emissions with "common but differentiated responsibilities." The first annual Conference of the Parties to the framework, known as a COP. U.S. agrees to exempt developing countries from binding obligations. At the third Conference of the Parties (COP-3) the Kyoto Protocol is approved, mandating developed countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions relative to baseline emissions by 2008-2012 period. (COP-6) reaches agreement on terms for compliance and financing. Bush administration rejects the Kyoto Protocol; U.S.is only an observer at the talks. COP-15 fails to produce a binding post-Kyoto agreement, but declares the importance of limiting warming to under 2°C. Developed countries pledge $100 billion in climate aid to developing countries. (COP-17) participating countries agreed to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change as soon as possible, and no later than 2015, to take effect by 2020. 2015, Paris COP-21 195 nations sign the Paris Agreement, providing for worldwide voluntary actions (INDC's) by individual countries. International regime to fight climate change • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — 1988. • Rio Summit on Earth — 1992 (UN conference on environment and development) UNFCCC. • Kyoto Protocol. • 1997, in force 2005. = Existence of a generally accepted consensus on the climate change as well as contribution of human activities to this change. Kyoto Protocol • 4 GHG (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) + hydrofluorocarbons and pefluorocarbons. • Annex I. countries (37 industrialized countries + EU15), Non-annex I. parties. • Reducing of GHG emissions by 5,2 % for the first commitment period of 2008-2012. (4,2 % after USA left). Base year 1990. • Reduction of emissions from fossil fuel combustion; reduction emission in other sectors (land-use or direct industrial emissions); flexible mechanisms — Emission trading, CDM, JI. • Common but differenciated responsibility. CO2 emissions per capita, 1997 Average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita measured in tonnes per year OurWorld in Data Ot 201 No data I 101 100 t 50 t 2001 Source: CDIAC C02 emissions per capita (tonnes per year) OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA CCh emissions per capita vs GDP per capita (international^), 1997 Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita (tonnes per year) vs GDP per capita (int.-$). The size of the bubbles represent population size. OurWorld in Data 05 m o E The actual country :argets apply to a baske: of six greenhouse gases and -allow sinks and international credits to be used for compliance. The overall 'Kyoto target* is estimated for this publication by applying the country targets to IEA. data for C'Jj emissions from tjeI combustion, and is only shown as an indication. The overall target for -Jie combined EU-15 under -Jie Protocol is -B%, bu: -Jie member countries have agreed on a burden-sharing arrangement a& listed. (3) Emissions from Monaco are included with France. (4} Composition of region e- diFers from elsewhere in :hi& publica-jon to take into account countries tha: are no: Kyoto Parties. (5} The Kyoto larget is calcula.ed as percentage of the 19Q0 CO;, emissions from fuel combustion only, ■therefore i: does not represent the tocal larget for the sis-gas basket This assumes that the reducdon targets are spread equally across all gases. GtCOx 3! t: 5 - Woninnéi i Pinn* innti i . . . ■aniiai lil* ^^^^ Kyoto t 1900 1Ô03 1000 2002 2008 2012 Global CO^ emissions by world region, 1751 to 2015 Annual carbon dioxide emissions in billion tonnes (Gt). OurWorld in Data 1760 1?W l?-9£i 1790.19001610 1G2Q lfl30 1640 10501™ 1STQ lflflO 1B8Q 1 900l9lD 1SQQ 1930 lSHO 195Q1JSO |S?0 i960 18602000™^ Data aounce: Carbon Ulo^lde Intormatci Analyala Center cCDWCi: aggregation Cv world rogcri by Our world In Data. I no Interactive dala Yi5*jalizaJllon la avellatHe atOumorldinData.-D