Low carbon technologies in the 21st century Filip Černoch cernoch@mail.muni.cz Life cycle CO2 equivalent of selected electricity supply technologies. Technology Median Technology Median Coal 820 Geothermal 38 Biomass co-fired with coal 740 Concentrated solar power 27 Gas – combined cycle 490 Hydropower 24 Biomass – dedicated 230 Wind offshore 12 Solar PV – utility scale 48 Nuclear 12 Solar PV – rooftop 41 Wind onshore 11 Arranged by decreasing median values. In gCO2eq/kWh Global investments in power generation, electricity networks and demand growth Investments in the electricity generation and networks, 2015 (in USD2015 billions) Overnight construction costs (OCC) in 2015USD/kW, USA and France Construction duration, USA and France OCC of global nuclear reactors in USD2010 Distribution of construction overrun costs by technology (n =401) LCOE for base load technologies, at different discount rates NPP in the EU in progress • Flamanville NPP – construction started in 2007, with schedulled commissioning in 2012 and planned costs €3,3bn. Last information (from 2015) – commissioning in 2018 for €10,5bn. • Olkiluoto NPP – construction started in 2005, with schedulled commissioning in 2010 and planned costs of €3bn. Last information (from 2017) – commissioning in 2018 for €8,5-10bn+. • Mochovce NPP – construction re-started in 2009, with schedulled commissioning in 2012 and 2013 and planned costs of €2,775bn. . Last information (from 2017) – commissioning in 2018-2019 for €3,8bn. Experience curve of USA/Fr NPPs 14 Strongly positive Positive Neutral Rather negative Strongly negative Finland UK Luxemburg Greece Ireland France The Netherlands Denmark Sweden Germany Lithuania Estonia Malta Belgium Austria Romania Portugal Cyprus Italy Bulgaria Poland - Latvia The Czech Republic Slovenia - Lithuania Hungary Spain Slovakia - - - Nuclear phase-outs • Austria – 1997 • Germany – 2011 • Italy – 1987 (after Chernobyl) • Sweden - 1980 (after Three Mile Island), renounced in 2010. • New Zealand – 1987 • … • … Global PV module price trends 2009- 2016 Total installed costs of onshore wind by country 1983- 2014 LCOE for base load technologies, at different discount rates LCOE for RES technologies, at different discount rates Remuneration levels for nuclear and RE technologies in the UK Ownership of global power generation capacity commissioned in 2015 Ownership of installed RE capacity in Germany (2012) Sources • Sovacool, B.K.; Gilbert, A.; Nugent, D. (2014): An international comparative assessment of construction cost overruns for electricity infrastructure. • Lovering, J.R.; Yip, A.; Nordhaus, T.(2016): Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors. • Suna, D.; Resch, G.(2016): Is nuclear economical in comparison to renewables? • Khatib, H.(2016): A review of the IEA/NEA projeted costs of electricity – 2015 edition. • Hall, S.; Foxon, T.J.; Bolton, R.:(2016): Financing the civic energy sector: How financial institutions affect ownership models in Germany and the United Kingdom.