Climate change II. Impacts and mitigation/adaptation V Filip Cernoch cemoch@jnail.muni.cz CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Climate change impacts • Melting ice • The vast majority of the world's glaciers are melting faster than are replenished. • 1/3 of North Pole's ice sheets melted since 90s. • Accelerated sea level rise, increase coastal flooding • 20 cm in the last century (40% thermal expansivity, 60% melting of the land ice). • Actual rate 3mm/y. • Problem for low-lying communities (i.e. Bangladesh). • Increase in extreme weather events • Climate change increases certain types of extreme weather events — heat waves, coastal flooding, extreme precipitation events, more sever droughts. CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Climate change impacts • Increase in extreme weather events • Climate change increases certain types of extreme weather events — heat waves, coastal flooding, extreme precipitation events, more severe droughts. • Temperature — average kinetic energy of the molecules within a substance = the more radiation trapped in the atmosphere the higher temperature is. CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES umber of Climate-related Disasters Around the World (1980-2011) Climate change impacts • Health impacts • Increased air pollution, a longer and more intense allergy seasons, the spread of insect-borne diseases, more frequent heat waves, flooding = costly risks to public health. • Food problems and water • According to IPCC 1°C = 65 million people starving. • Increase of the temperature of more than 2°C = 3 billion people without water supply. • Between 18-35% of plant and animal species is committed to extinction by 2050 (oceans are absorbing much of the C02 in the air, which leads to ocean acidification — destabilising the whole oceanic food chain). An estimated 1 billion people depend on the ocean for more than 30% of their animal protein. • Climate refugees. • And others... CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Examples of climate extremes leading to migration and conflict since 2000 Type of Climate Event Region/Conn try Time Period * Major Impacts on Migration Presence of Conflict Sources Drought/soil degradation Kenya 2004 & 2007 Increase in temporary labor migration with decreasing soil quality n / -a Gray, 2011 [2] Heat stress Pakistan 1991-2012 ** Increase in long-term migration of men n ."i Mueller ef aL, 2014 [3] Forest fires United States 2010 Increased intention to migrate n / -"i Nawrotzkief a?., 2014 [4] Increase in male rural-urban migration Moderate evidence of Flooding/Cyclone Bangladesh 2009 contributing to intra-familial conflict Mai lick & Vogt, 2012 [5] Hooding Pakistan 2011-2012 Increase in rural-urban migration Strong evidence of violent conflict over political power between migrants and non-migrants Bhattacharyya, & Werz, 2012 [6] Drought Syria 2006-2014 Increase in rural-urban migration Moderate evidence of contributing to violent conflict Gleick, 2014 [7] Drought/water scarcity Western Sähe I 2005-present Increase in lab or-related migration of pastoralists Strong evidence of contributing to clashes between pastoralists and farmers over resources UNEP 2011 [8]; Nyong, 2011 [9] Droughts Peru & Bolivia 1996-present ** Increase in lab or-related migration of farmers due to increasingly devastating droughts Strong evidence of contributing to conflict between fanners over resources and ethnic conflict between farmers and Hoffman & Grigera, 2013 [10]; Carrol & Schipani, 2011 [11] indigenous migrants Desertification Nigeria -1993-2013 ** Increase in lab or-related migration of farmers due to increasing desertification Strong evidence of ethnic conflict between farmers over rangeland Folami, 2013 [12]; Werz & Conley, 2012 [13] * Time periods are approximate. Ranges are based on data collection time periods when concrete dates were not provided for the climate extreme itself. ** These studies have data collection preceding 2000 but migration and/or conflict occurring after 2000 and as such were included. CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES The Relationship Between the Level of Greenhouse Gas Stabilization and Eventual Temperature Change 400 ppm C02 e 0°C 450 ppm C02 e 550 p pm C02 e 650 ppm C02 e ■4 750 ppm C02 4 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C Eventual Temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Possible (expected) effects of Climate Change Eventual Temperature Rise Relative to Pre-Industrial Temperatures Type of Impact 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C Freshwater Supplies Food and Agriculture Human Health Coastal Areas Small glaciers in the Potential water supply Serious droughts in Andes disappear, decrease of 20-30% in somesouthern Europe every 10 threatening water supplies regions (Southern Africa years, l^t- billion more for 50 million people and Mediterranean) people suffer water shortages Modest increase in yields Declines in crop yields in 150—550 million more in tropical regions (5-10% in people at risk of hunger, temperature regions Africa) Yields likely to peak at higher latitudes At least 300,000 die each 40—60 million more exposed 1—3 million more year from climate-related to malaria in Africa diseases. Reduction in winter mortality in high latitudes Increased damage from Up to 10 million more coastal flooding people exposed to coastal flooding potentially people die annually from malnutrition Up to 170 million more people exposed to coastal flooding Potential water supply decrease of 30-50% in southern Africa and Mediterranean Large glaciers in Himalayas possibly disappear, affecting % of China's population Yields decline by 15-35% in Increase in ocean acidity Africa. Some entire regions possibly reduces fish stocks out of agricultural production Up to 80 million more Further disease increase and people exposed to malaria insubstantial burdens on Africa health care services Up to 300 million more people exposed to coastal flooding Sea-level rise threatens major cities such as New York, Tokyo, and London Ecosystems At least 10% of land 15-40% of species species facing extinction, potentially face extinction Increased wildfire risk 20-50% of species potentially face extinction Possible onset of collapse of Amazon forest Loss of half of Arctic tundraSignificant Widespread loss of coral extinctions across the globe reefs CENTER FOR ■ ENERGY STUDIES S h Climate change impacts by region People affected each year by 2080s by storm surges People at risk of wa- with sea-level rise of ter stress by 2085 about 38cm assuming due to a temperature Additional num- constant protection Estimated climate increase of 2-3 Estimates related to ber of people at mechanisms (evolving refugees due to sea- Vulnerability to (depending on drought and water risk of hunger by protection mechanisms)" level rise (sir)1' tropical cyclones' population level)'* stress'' the 2080sf Africa Southern Egypt: 12 million Southeast North Africa: 14 African Total: 23-200 Mediterranean: by 2050 Africa: low to 155-599 million countries currently 13 million (6 million) Nigeria: 6-11 mil- moderate risk South and experience water West Africa: 36 million lion by 2050 East Africa: scarcity. (3 Million) 15-529 million Expected to rise to East Africa: 33 million West Africa: 24 countries by (5 million) 27-517 million 2030 Asia South Asia: 98 million Bangladesh: 26 Major urban cen- South Asia: Millions at risk due West Asia: (55 million) million by 2050 ters: moderate to 39-812 million to the glacier melt 5-134 million Southeast Asia: 43 mil- China: 73 million high risk West Asia: in the Himalayas. Southeast Asia: lion (21 million) India: 20 million South Asia: moder- 95-492 million 50-60 percent of 2-44 million by 2050 ate risk Central Asia: world population East Asia: moderate to high risk South East Asia: moderate to high risk 14-228 million East Asia: 41-1577 in worst case scenario live in the larger Himalaya-Hindu Rush region and could be affected by water stress CENTER FOR j ENERGY STUDIES! Climate change impacts by region Latin America N/A Small island states Caribbean: 1,350,000 (560,000) Indian Ocean: 920 thousand (460,000) Pacific: 290,000 (160,000) Venezuela: 56,000 assuming lm sir and no adaptation measures Uruguay: 13,000 assuming 1 m sir and no adaptation measures 1 million Central America: low to high risk Northern Latin America: low risk Caribbean: low to moderate risk Indian Ocean: low to moderate risk Pacific: low to high risk Central America: 5-246 million South America: 72-272 million in the worst-case scenario Caribbean: 0-73 million Glacier melt in the South American Andes could cause water stress under 37 million people by 2010 and 40 million by 2050 Water availability could become too low during low rainfall seasons Total: 5-85 million N/A. CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Important Events in International Climate Change Negotiations Year, Location 1992, Rio de Janeiro 1995, Berlin 1997, Kyoto 2001, Bonn 2009, Copenhagen 2011, Durban 2015, Paris Outcome UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries agree to reduce emissions with "common but differentiated responsibilities." The first annual Conference of the Parties to the framework, known as a COP. U.S. agrees to exempt developing countries from binding obligations. At the third Conference of the Parties (COP-3) the Kyoto Protocol is approved, mandating developed countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions relative to baseline emissions by 2008-2012 period. (COP-6) reaches agreement on terms for compliance and financing. Bush administration rejects the Kyoto Protocol; U.S.is only an observer at the talks. COP-15 fails to produce a binding post-Kyoto agreement, but declares the importance of limiting warming to under 2°C. Developed countries pledge $100 billion in climate aid to developing countries. (COP-17) participating countries agreed to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change as soon as possible, and no later than 2015, to take effect by 2020. COP-21 195 nations sign the Paris Agreement, providing for worldwide voluntary actions (INDC's) by individual countries. CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Mitigation or adaptation? Global CO emissions by world region, 1751 to 2015 Annual carbon dioxide emissions in billion tonnes (Gt), 36 34 32 CD Q 26 B 22 5» o m 16 a 14 O 12 0 10 B 6 4 2 0 3&18 tiiltii tomes in 2D.15 3B17t«ionlCfin«8hIOH j IniednaHkmalaieikyi sis Africa Asia and Pacific (other) Middle East Americas (other) Europe (other) India China OOJbllontorinBa in 1600 United States i U 9b ITH) 17HÜ 17.30 1T9Ü18001*1Q ISO 1B30 114010501660 I6PQ 1BS0 I880 1QOQ1310 1920 1930 194Ü 195()l9flO 1970 1980 19602O0O201O Data aouice Carbor Lhoiuh Int.;. not :■ ahevsis :_'riii~i LDIAL'i. aggreqal on by w:tld e :i ■:■ ■ by Ol vVm t 11 > Data The IntarBctive darla viEfjalizallon Is available at OurWorldinData o«g. TharB you find me raw data and more v-ieuainariors on the tope. Licensed under CC-6Y-SA. CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Mitigation or adaptation? 150 A wide range of energy and climate policies reduce greenhouse gas emissions Policy Type Policy options Price-based instruments Taxes on CO2 directly Taxes/charges on inputs or outputs of process (eg fuel and vehicle taxes) Subsidies for emissions-reducing activities Emissions trading systems (cap and trade or baseline and credit) Command and control regulations Technology standards (eg biofuel blend mandate, minimum energy performance standards) Performance standards (e.g. fleet average C02 vehicle efficiency) Prohibition or mandating of certain products or practices Reporting requirements Requirements for operating certification (e.g. HFC handling certification) Land use planning, zoning Technology support policies Public and private RD&D funding Public procurement Green certificates (renewable portfolio standard or clean energy standard) Feed-in tahffs Public investment in underpinning infrastructure for new technologies Policies to remove financial barriers to acquiring green technology (loans, revolving funds) Information and voluntary approaches Rating and labelling programmes Public information campaigns Education and training Product certification and labelling Award schemes Source: Hood (2011), based on de Serres, Murtfn and Nicolleti (2010). Carbon pricing • To decrease demand we need to raise its cost. Trying to find the balance of the costs and benefits of carbon production, not to reducing it entirely. To internalize the externalities. • Instruments that reach throughout the economy, influencing all production and consumption decisions. • 1) Figuring out how much carbon we want to put into the environment. 2) Then a cost must be applied: • applying tax on it (Pigouvian tax) • cap-and-trading • Both these systems raise some revenue that could be used to offset the negative macroeconomic impacts of energy price rises CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Carbon taxes • Norway — C02 tax introduced in 1991. Applied to oil products, emissions from oil and gas production and gas used for heating and transport. Sectors covered by EU ETS exempted from carbon tax, with exeption of the offshore oil and gas sector. From 2013 the tax level has been increased to offset the falling EUA price. • Japan — introduced in 2012 to raise revenue for energy efficiency and RES programmes, not as a direct price incentive. • Switzerland — C02 levy intended as an incentive for energy efficiency and for shifting toward cleaner heating and proces fuels (not to raise revenue). In place since 2008. Increased from 12 CHF/tC02 to 120 CHF/tC02. • British Columbia (Canada) - introduced in 2008 at USD10/ton, eventually reached USD30/ton. Revenue neutral, compensated by income and corporate tax cuts. Consumption fuels dropped by 5-15%, while in the rest of Canada increased by about 3%. GDP continued to increase. CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Cap and trade systems • A government assigns to itself the right to put emissions into the environment. • It defines what it believes to be the socially optimal quantity of emissions. • The govevernment generates a number of permits equal to the amount of allowable emissions. • These permits are allocated to emitters to trade with them — market is created. = economically efficient, provides incentives for efectivity of the system. To develop technology that would allow one to reduce emissions at a cost lower than that of buying a permit, that spurs innovation and technological development. CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Current and proposed emissions trading systems 2013 Start year 2008 Start year 200S Electricity and n dost r, Sac ton Electricity andinduttry Sector* Electrica* industry •v United States of Crffornia f America Stan year 2013 Secton Electricity and m du ary f." Iii f Start yea/ 2009 Secton Electricity * 'el Secton To be determined "■IUI To be determined I Sectors E le- n city and industry Ú Sartors To be ila—i nJiil Ones h.-,(.rif lurijir, Shanghai Chongqing. Shenthen Provinces Guangdong, Mubel Secton vary by pilot scheme f || In place Implementation scheduled Under consideration Ttws imp is BBS prejudge to rr* itarn of or soverefnty over any tax Au str ata Start year 2012 Secton Electricity, industry, waste, forestry, domestic aviation and snipping Start year 2010 Secton Commercial buildings and industry Start year 2011 Secton Commercial buildings and industry 4l Start year 2006 Sectors Electricity, industry, waste, forestry, transport fuels and domestic aviation E and boundaries, and to t M name of anytirrstory. c«y or mt Source: IEA (2013a) Carbon tax vs. cap and trade system • Carbon tax: • Simpler to understand, easier to built, more transparent. • Keeps pushing for reducing the emissions despite technology development. • Is to be implemented more quickly • Greater price predictability • Cap and trade system • Avoids negative connotation of 'tax' • Some companies are effective in lobbying for exemptions • Known reduction of emissions, unknown price CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Energy policies that affect emissions • Energy taxes and subsidies • Non-climate objectives (funding of infrastructure, revenue rasing), can shift the average and relative prices of fuels, therefore act as a significant carbon price, (and vice versa). • Energy efficiency • The primary motivation for energy efficiency policies is cost savings to consumers and society, improved energy security. Emissions savings a positive by-product. • Performance standards, information and labelling, energy provider obligations in lightning, equipment and buildings. • Development and deployment of low-carbon supply technologies • Technology support policies — research development to demonstration projects to support for deployment CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve for 2030 60 40 d) O20 Ü & 0 (/) o-20 u ■ c d) E-40 a> ■ re .Q <-60 -80 -100 Carbon capture and storage, reduced intensive agriculture conversion New building efficiency, Waste recycling, small pasture, grassland, soil Wind and solar power, forest restoration hydro, other efficiency and forest management improvement I 7 _2_11 3 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 Hybrid cars, electricity from landfill gas, other industrial efficiency v Improved cropland ^ management, insulation retrofit (residential) Efficiency improvement, LED lighting, insulation retrofit (commercial) Abatement potential (GtC02e per year) CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES WHAT *f it's A fc\6 rto^y, and \a/oRLT> For NöT^tAG? o Ö 6 "of o Author: Joel Pett • ENERGY INDEPENDENCE ♦ PRESERVE RAINFORESTS . SUSTAINABLE GREEN Jops IJVA&LE CITIES RENEWALS CLEAN WATER s A\R HEALTHV CWiLWEN ere. etc. CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Climate Change Adaptation Needs, by Sector Sector Adaptation strategies Water Agriculture Infrastructure Human health Expand water storage and desalination Improve watershed and reservoir management Increase water-use and irrigation efficiency and water re-use Urban and rural flood management Adjust planting dates and crop locations Develop crop varieties adapted to drought, higher temperatures Improved land management to deal with floods/droughts Strengthen indigenous/traditional knowledge and practice Relocate vulnerable communities Build and strengthen seawalls and other barriers Create and restore wetlands for flood control Dune reinforcement Health plans for extreme heat Increase tracking, early-warning systems for heat-related diseases Address threats to safe drinking water supplies Extend basic public health services CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Climate Change Adaptation Needs, by Sector Sector Adaptation strategies Transport Relocation or adapt transport infrastructure Energy Ecosystems New design standards to cope with climate change Strengthen distribution infrastructure Address increased demand for cooling Increase efficiency, increase use of renewables Reduce other ecosystem stresses and human use pressures Improve scientific understanding, enhanced monitoring Reduce deforestation, increase reforestation Increase mangrove, coral reef, and seagrass protection CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES urces Wagner, G.; Weitzman, M.L.(2015: Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet Figueres, Ch.-Ivanova, H.M.: Climate Change: National Interests or a Global Regime? IEA: C02 Emission from Fuel Combustion Carbon Brief Center for Climate and Energy Solutions Harris, J.M.; Roach, B.; Codur, A-M.(2017): The Economics of Global Climate Change. A GDAE module Ritchie, H.; Roser, M.: C02 and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Our World in Data Biermann, F; Boas, 1.(2010): Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees Burrows, K.; Kinney,L.(2015): Exploring the Climage Change, Migration and Conflict Nexus CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES