INTRODUCTION TO CRISIS MANAGEMENT September 2017 Introduction content ¨Crises vs. Complex emergencies ¨Conflict specific crises ¨Reactions to crises ¨Preventing ¨Managing ¨Resolving ¨Rebuilding ¨Crisis management operations impacts ¨Actors ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ 2 Crises and crisis management ¨Nature ¤Political, military, humanitarian •Causes may vary •Conflict, natural disaster, technological incident ¨Character ¤Time-sensitive (eliminates instruments such as arbitration/adjudication ) ¤likely escalation or increase of losses 3 Crises and crisis management ¨Responses ¤Direct – among involved actors (negotiations) ¤Indirect – with third party involvement (mediation, operations) ¨Responses by ¤IOs, state actors, NGOs, individuals ¨Response variance ¤Responses involving force – third party intervention ¤Responses short of force – including “threat power, trading power, and giving power” 4 Complex emergency ¨A better concept of crises which the international community is faced with today and which require a complex responses ¨Major humanitarian crises of a multi-causal nature requiring a system-wide response ¨ ¨Modern intra-state conflicts are the primary source nNo clearly defined battlefield, no clearly define adversary, urban centered warfare, terror tactics, forced displacement and devastating even at low intensity 5 Complex emergency ¨“A major emergency is a humanitarian crisis in a country, region or society where there is a dramatic disruption in the political, economic and social situation, resulting from internal or external conflict or natural disaster, seriously disrupting the population’s capacity to survive and the national authorities’ capacity to respond, and which requires a consolidated multi-sectoral international response” (IASC of the United Nations) ¨ ¨Revised by OHCA – POLITICAL ELEMENT – above renamed to ‘major emergency’ where local capacities are inadequate (drought) 6 Crisis management in conflict 7 C:\Users\USER\Desktop\Untitled.png Crisis management scope 8 Crisis management concept ¨Encompassing following fields? ¨ ¨Crisis prevention ¨Conflict management ¨Conflict resolution ¨Post-conflict reconstruction 9 Crisis management concept ¨Phases of response ¨ ¨Diplomacy backed by threat (leverage negotiation, sanctions, loss of membership) ¨Diplomacy backed by force (measure enforcement, ceasefire support) ¨Force backed by diplomacy (peace enforcement without achieving target consensus) ¨Diplomacy backed by reconstruction 10 Crisis prevention ¨Crisis prevention ¤Constructive activities intended to minimize the probability of disputes and their escalation into the threat of, or use of armed force ¤ ¤Post WWII concept neutralized by CW until the 90s ¤ ¤1992 – An Agenda for Peace 11 Crisis prevention ¨Structural prevention nLong-term efforts on political, economic, developmental, cultural, civil society level nEmphasis on the indivisibility of security nIO membership, association agreements, cooperation, development programmes ¨ ¨Direct prevention nImmediate efforts during initial crisis phases nEarly warning, mediation and shuttle diplomacy nLackluster in practice n 12 Crisis prevention – Early warning ¨Global and regional initiatives to identify crises prior to potential escalation ¤UN – 1998 primary initiative, 2000 Prevention team ¤IGAD – 2002 – CEWARN in the Horn of Africa ¤AU – 2009 – CEWS Continental EWS ¨Indicators to watch (WB) npast conflict, low income, high export dependence, political instability, human rights, militarization, ethnic dominance, regional conflict, unemployment rate among young adults, distribution of access to natural resources n 13 Direct crisis prevention instruments ¨1. official diplomacy nPeace conferences, mediation, shuttle diplomacy ¨2. unofficial diplomacy nRound tables, NGO expert sessions, hallway diplomacy ¨3. military prevention nPreventive military deployment, non-aggression pacts, arms embargoes, cooperative training n(Sudan) ¨4. economic nDevelopment aid, economic sanctions, market access n(Eritrea) ¨ 14 Direct crisis prevention instruments ¨5. political nElection monitoring, human rights support, minority rights improvement, interparliamentary cooperation n(Liberia) ¨6. legal nSecurity sector reform, war tribunals, arbitrage n(DRC) ¨7. media and education nInternational broadcasts, education access development n(Sierra Leone) 15 Managing through negotiating ¨the process of combining conflicting positions into a joint agreement… and is the most common (although not the only) way of preventing, managing, resolving, and transforming conflicts” (Zartman 2009: 322). ¨ ¨Aiming for conflict resolution in any stage ¨2 or more parties – without a facilitator, all parties are interested/invested in outcome ¨concession, compensation, and construction OR positive-sum negotiations and bargaining negotiations 16 Managing through mediating ¨Defined as negotiation facilitated by third, presumably impartial, parties, to help seek a solution the direct parties cannot find themselves ¨Voluntary ¤in selecting mediation, mediator, presence, progress, and most of all propositions and results ¨Dynamic process ¨Cheap ¤cheaper than any other form of third party involvement ¨Absence of coercion ¤Although possibility of “mediation with muscle” 17 Crisis or conflict management? ¨In the event preventive measures fail ¨ ¨conflict management: nActivities aimed at the armed aspects of crises with the objective of stopping active combat, containing crisis spillover and minimizing destructive impacts ¨conflict resolution: nActivities aimed at achieving a voluntary mutual peaceful solution to common incompatibilities and a cessation of hostilities n ¨Crucial hierarchy in delaying the resolution of mutual incompatibilities 18 Military crisis management (MCM) ¨intervention by mainly military, usually multinational force ¨ ¨activities aimed at creating/maintaining a secure environment in order to end a crisis and/or enable peace to be established/maintained ¨ ¨MCM includes: ¤peacekeeping missions ¤conflict prevention missions ¤stabilization and reconstruction missions ¤humanitarian missions 19 Civilian crisis management (CCM) ¨intervention by non-military personnel ¨ ¨to prevent further escalation of the crisis and facilitate its resolution ¨ ¨multiple stages and multiple actors ¨ ¨different ways of organizations’ participation in CM ¨ ¨à confusion over the definition (police missions, observers?) 20 When to use MCM and when CCM? ¨decisive: the complexities of each crisis ¨ ¨cases unique à difficult to develop a formula ¨ ¨wide range of considerations: ¨ ¤level of violence ¤duration of conflict ¤un/armed conflict ¤readiness of CCM or MCM units for deployment ¤presence of a leader ¤length of the mission ¤root causes of the conflict ¤contribution of outside forces ¤success/failure of past military or civilian units 21 22 Post-conflict reconstruction ¨Activities aimed at renewing the socio-economic structure of the society and the establishment of adequate conditions for the secure and peaceful development of society ¨ ¨Key concepts: ¤System inclusion ¤External assistance ¤Sustainability after self reliance ¨ ¨Reconstruction serves as structural prevention ¤ 23 Phases and priorities ¨2002 Post-Conflict Reconstruction (CSIS/AUSA) ¨ ¨Nation building – synonym for post-conflict reconstruction? Or for democratization and westernization? – only a part of post-conflict reconstruction ¨ ¨3 phases nInitial – immediately after cessation of active combat, strategic nTransformational – institution and capacity building, social inclusion and economic recovery nSupport – support for consolidation of self-reliance ¨ n ¤ n 24 Phases and priorities ¨4 pillars ¤Security – crucial to any success nCivilian security, DDR, buffer zones, civilian control over armed forces, training n ¤Justice and Reconcilliation – establishment of rule of law nPreventing reprisals, interim justice, human right legislation, police training n ¤Social and economic well-being – aid and resources distribution nElementary food and water security, repatriations, infrastructure reconstruction, requalification training, subsidies and investments n ¤Governance and participation – transitive authority support nNGO cooperation, interim government support, election preparations, legislation expertise transfer, civil society support ¨ 25 26 ¨ ¨ ¨How has this necessitated and changed crisis management operations? 27 ¨more complex ¨ ¨militias, paramilitaries or mercenaries ¨ ¨interconnectedness of war and economy and of security and development ¨ ¨less direct violence; poverty, famine and migration ¨ ¨failing and failed states ¨ ¨terrorism, drug and human trafficking, corruption and organized crime ¨ ¨crisis management has changed in three dimensions: ¨ Changes in the nature of crises Expanding the spectrum of tasks (1) 28 ¨first, the spectrum of tasks has expanded ¨ ¨from traditional peacekeeping (containment and reduction of military escalation) to social, political, and economic transformation (conflict resolution) ¨ ¨tasks: ¤humanitarian aid ¤physical protection ¤rule of law ¤functioning of political institutions ¤stable and self-sustainable social and economic structures Expanding timelines of CM (2) 29 ¨the increasing set of tasks coincides with expanding timelines of crisis management ¨ ¨from conflict prevention, the actual crisis management (humanitarian intervention, peace building and peacekeeping) to post-conflict management ¨ ¨need to handle the junctions between the different phases Increasing number of actors (3) 30 ¨number of actors involved has increased significantly (broadened spectrum of tasks) ¨ ¨no single actor is able to supply specific instruments and expertise on its own ¨ ¨the more actors, the higher the political legitimacy ¨ ¨local actors increasingly involved: ¨ ¤e.g. local government and administration; political, religious, ethnic, and other social groups; private sector, the media, militias, organized crime, forces from neighbouring regions Comprehensive Approach 31 ¨conceptual answer to these challenges = “Comprehensive Approach” ¨ ¨= all-encompassing response to the demands in crisis management ¨ ¨external and internal coordination of policy instruments and the coherence of common objectives between different actors ¨ ¨adopted by all main international organizations ¨ ¨recent efforts to implement it - mixed results Comprehensive Approach Antithesis? 32 Mölling, Ch. – Major, C. (2009): Comprehensive Approaches to Crisis Management. Analytical perspectives and operative concepts of international organisations, p. 38. 33 EU comprehensive approach - 2013 UN crisis management 34 ¨most active in the area of peacekeeping à most affected by the changes of crises ¨ ¨from traditional monitoring of ceasefires and patrolling buffer zones towards highly complex scenarios (interstate, ethnic or tribal conflicts and civil wars) ¨ ¨UN PKOs became multidimensional ¨ ¨= military, police, political, civil affairs, rule of law, human rights, humanitarian, reconstruction, public information and gender components ¨ ¨increased demand for personnel and expertise and complexity of missions ¨ ¨need to develop a comprehensive doctrine ¨ UN crisis management 35 ¨UN’s adaptation efforts have culminated in the so called Integrated missions (IM) concept (2006) ¨ ¤= specific type of operational process and design, where the planning and coordination processes of the different elements of the UN units are integrated into a single country-level UN system ¤ ¨in a high number of multidimensional peacekeeping operations ¨ ¨tension among various actors ¨ ¤e. g. the “Department for Political Affairs” and the “Department for Peacekeeping Operations” rival over the overall control of operations ¨ ¨still in a starting phase ¨ ¨need for better channels of communication between the different agencies ¨ NATO crisis management 36 ¨the end of the Cold War and the acceleration of globalization à shift in the NATO doctrine – Strategic concepts ¨ ¨threats “getting global” à old security paradigms replaced by an “engagement paradigm” ¨ ¨security started to be viewed functionally, rather than geographically ¨ ¨lessons identified in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Darfur: NATO is never alone in the field ¨ ¨need to ensure effective coordination among actors from the international community, both military and civilian ¨ ¨ NATO crisis management 37 ¨doctrine of civil-military co-operation (CIMIC), 2002 ¤aims to facilitate the co-operation between a NATO commander and all parts of the civilian environment at the field level ¤importance of cooperation with national and local governments, other IOs and NGOs ¤ ¨“Comprehensive Political Guidance”, 2006 à the Comprehensive Approach as NATO’s planning blueprint ¨ ¨Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) as civil-military units designed to provide security locally and to facilitate reconstruction ¨ ¨NATO – military organization à need to be more receptive to civilian structures (military image can prevent important actors to become partners of NATO) EU crisis management 38 ¨focus on the internal coordination of its different crisis management instruments ¨ ¨fragmentation across two pillars: ¨ ¤(1) the EU Commission is in charge of the long-term civilian instruments and controls the resources ¤ ¤(2) the EU Council disposes with the tools for more rapid reactions, including the military dimension ¤ ¤à initiatives run in parallel or even counter each other ¤ ¨need for inter-organizational coordination, particularly with regard to NATO and the UN (see the Kosovo crisis, DR Congo) EU crisis management 39 ¨European/Common Security and Defense Policy has aimed to combine civilian and military aspects of a mission ¨ ¨civilian, military and integrated structures and procedures to implement a comprehensive approach towards crisis management ¨ ¨a wide range of civilian and military instruments has been set up ¨ ¨Concept of Civil Military Coordination (CMCO), 2003 ¨ ¤need for effective co-ordination of the actions of all relevant EU actors ¤ ¤part of a comprehensive approach AU, ECOWAS, and OSCE 40 ¨Regional crisis management actors ¨ ¨Precursors or delegated actors ¨ ¨AU almost 40 000 troops on the ground ¨ECOWAS almost 4 000 troops ¨OSCE 3 000 civilians in all missions, but 650 deployed ¨ ¨Fulfilment of distinct roles – reactionary vs. preventive ¨Heavy European involvement in each ¨Local ownership and sovereignty issues ¨ ¨ ¨ Sources ¨EU (1997): Treaty on the European Union, consolidated version, on-line text (http://eur-lex.europa.eu/en/treaties/dat/11997D/htm/11997D.html). ¨Giegerich, B. (2008): European military crisis management. Connecting ambitions and reality, Oxon: Routledge. ¨Keukeleire, S. – MacNaughtan, J. (2008): The Foreign Policy of the European Union, Hampshire and New York, Palgrave Macmillan. ¨Kupferschmidt, F. (2007): Crisis Management. A Combined Effort with Civil and Military Means, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, on-line text (http://www.swp-berlin.org/common/get_document.php?asset_id=3694). ¨Lindborg, C. (2002): European Approaches to Civilian Crisis Management, British American Security Information Council, on-line text (http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Research/2002ccm.pdf). ¨Military Technology (2006): Crisis Management – A Fundamental Security Task, No. 9, s. 57-65. ¨Mölling, Ch. (2008): Comprehensive Approaches to International Crisis Management, CSS Analyses in Security Policy, Vol. 3, No. 42, s. 1-3, on-line text (http://se2.isn.ch/serviceengine/FileContent?serviceID=10&fileid=0F000603-3181-4CFD-9153-D8AADAAF63 37&lng=en). ¨Mölling, Ch. – Major, C. (2009): Comprehensive Approaches to Crisis Management. Analytical perspectives and operative concepts of international organisations, on-line text (www.unc.edu/euce/eusa2009/papers/mölling_11D.pdf). ¨NATO (2002): AJP-01(B) Allied Joint Doctrine. ¨NATO (2001): AJP-3.4.1. Peace Support Operations. ¨NATO (2003): AJP-9, NATO Civil-Military Co-operation (CIMIC) Doctrine, on-line text (http://www.nato.int/ims/docu/ajp-9.pdf). ¨NATO (2006): Comprehensive Political Guidance, on-line text (http://www.nato.int/docu/basictxt/b061129e.htm). ¨UN DPKO (2008): United Nations Peacekeeping Operations. Principles and Guidelines, on-line text (http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/dpko/). ¨von Kielmansegg, S. (2007): The Meaning of Petersberg: Some Considerations on the Legal Scope of ESDP Operations, Common Market Law Review, Vol XLIV, No 3, pp. 629-648. ¨ 41