German energy transition - Energiewende
Filip Černoch
cernoch@mail.muni.cz
Energy policy of the EU
Origins of EW
1st pillar: nuclear phase-out
• Long and successfull tradition of nuclear industry in Germany
– in 70s 17 000MW.
• German anti-nuclear movement – Ausserparlamentarishe
Opposition in 60s (leftist students), environmental movements,
local oposition.
• Three Mile Island in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986.
• 1998 Greens in federal govt (with SPD) – Germany´s plan to
gradually withdraw from the atom.
• In 2010 the Atomic Energy Act amended – plant lifespan
extended, production limits on nuclear electricity increased.
• 2011 Fukushima – phase-out by 2022.
Origins of EW
2nd pillar: climate protection measures.
• In 70s anti-nuclear sentiment, environmental consciousness
and oil crisis raised the issue of RES.
• 1974 first RES subsidy program – PV parks. Furthered in 1977
– 25% of investment costs reimbursed.
• 1990 – Act on the Supply of Electricity from RES into the
Grid (StrEG)
• 2005 – Merkel´s great coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) –
ambitious climate plans, incl. RES and energy efficiency.
• 2010 – Energy Concept for an Environmentally Sound,
Reliable and Affordable Energy Supply ->Energiewende
Targets of the EW
• To cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2020, by at least
80% by 2050.
• Share of RES in gross final energy consumption to 60% in
2050 (10% in 2010). The share of RES in elektricity supply
80% by 2050.
• Reduction of energy consumption by 50% by 2050 (reference
year 2008).
• By 2050, elektricity consumption to drop by 25% compared to
2008. Final energy consumption in the transport sector to be
reduced by around 40% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels.
• Nuclear phase out by 2022. (Fukushima Daiichi 2011).
Targets of the EW
Targets of the EW
Declared benefits of the Energiewende
Performance of German energy sector
Gross power production in Germany 1990 –
2016 by source, in TWh
Share of energy sources in gross power
production in 2016 (preliminary data)
Net power consumption by consumer group
2000 - 2015
Major challenges
1) Costs of EW
• €550 bn. until 2050 (yearly investments €15bn., or 0,5% of GDP
respectively).
• Costs of Atomausstieg
• RES surcharges
• Grid investments and management
• Additional activities
• Wholesale prices of electricity among the lowest in the EU (this
reinforces the competitiveness of industry).
• Households pay one of the highest prices in the EU (regulated
component of prices).
• Cost unevenly distributed. Paid mainly by households, companies
exempted to a great extend.
EEG surcharge in c/kWh
Electricity prices – medium size households
(eur/kWh)
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
0,35
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EU (28
countries)
Czech
Republic
Germany
Electricity prices – medium size industries
(eur/kWh)
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EU (28 countries)
Czech Republic
Germany
Poland
Reform of EEG in 2014
• Annual growth targets (2,5 GW each for wind and solar-PV)
• Growth targets for new biomass minimal
• Auctions for PV-parks (starting 2015) and wind energy
announced for 2017
• Balancing and wholesale market integration mandatory for
new installations (except small ones)
2) Coal consumption and CO₂ emissions
• Increasing of the proportion of hard (from 117 TWh to 121,7
TWh between 2010-2013) and brown (from 145,9 TWh to
160,9 TWh) coal in elektricity production.
• Emissions of CO2 has been flat/increasing slowly.
Greenhouse gas emission trends in Germany
by sector 1990 - 2016
3) Public support of EW
• 8 out of 10 german citizens support faster growth of RES.
• Resentments about perceived gap between ambitious targets
and rhetoric and reality.
• Less than half of public with positive attitude toward
implementation of EW.
• Politics identified as reason for deficits in implementation.
3) Public support of EW
Average power price in c/kWh for a household using
3,500 kWh per year (997 euro/year)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
C/kWh
Years
Acquisition/sales Grid fee Value-added tax Concession fee
Renewables surcharge Electricity tax CHP surcharge - negligible Other surcharges - negligible
4) Stability of the grid
Unschedulled outages in 2013 (minutes per year)
4) Grid capacity
In 2014 24193 onshore wind turbines, 7858 biogas instalations,
1,4 million solar PV panels and 1,9 million solar thermal
collectors (2013).
Building of the grid
In 2010 plan to build 1887km by 2015, in Q3 only 23% finished
5) Restructuralisation of energy production
• Extensive development of RES at the expense of traditional
source. The resulting proportion of these two productive
segments will be based on:
• Almost zero variable (fuel) costs.
• Financial support of RES paid by the end user within regulated
part of the bill.
• Expenses associated with maintaining balance and stability of
network.
• In present, the costs on support of RES and function of
networks exceed the savings from lower commodity prices (=
higher costs for society). But competitivenes of RES have been
changing.
Solar + wind production in Germany in week
20 2015
4) Restructuralisation of energy production
Source: BMWi, Green paper
Impact of EW on the Czech Republic
Trading with electricity – price convergence
• Price volatility
• Wholesale price of electricity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Germany
The Czech Republic
Poland
Impact on Czech producers
•Producers face reduced revenues. (EBITDA of ČEZ
decreased from €3,5 bn. in 2009 to €2,5 bn. in 2015,
EW one of the reasons).
•Low variable cost generation portfolio (nuclear, hydro)
– still profitable company.
•88 % of electricity generated from low-merit or midmerit
sources (coal 50 %, nuclear 30 %, hydro 5,5 %).
Impact on Czech consumers
• Profit from Energiewende – import of cheaper electricity.
Impact on government
•Nuclear energy as a baseload source of energy
questioned.
•Nuclear is planned to replace decommissioning of 14
GW (out of 24 GW total) in 2030.
Trades and flow of electricity 2014/2015
Sources
• BMWi (2015): Making a success of the energy transition.
• Clean Energy Wire
• Černoch et.al.(2017): Energiewende and the Energy Security of the
Czech Republic and Poland