The origins of sustainable energy policies Filip Černoch cernoch@jTLail.muni.cz Climate change mechanism • Temperature of the planet is rising • 0,8°C in last 130 years, more than half of that in last 35 years. • GHGs concentration is increasing. • C02 concentration increased by 40% since pre-industrial time, methane by 150%, nitrous oxide by 20%. • This increase is (predominantly) caused by human activity. • There is a relationship between GHGs and energy in the atmosphere (greenhouse gas effect). • Some uncertainty due to the complexity of the issue, positive and negative feedbacks. Possible Effects of Climate Change Eventual Temperature Rise Relative to Pre-Industrial Temperatures Type of Impact 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C Freshwater Supplies Food and Agriculture Human Health Coastal Areas Ecosystems Serious droughts in southern Europe every 10 years. 1—4 billion more Small glaciers in the Potential water supply Andes disappear, decrease of 20-30% in threatening water supplies some regions (Southern for 50 million people Africa and Mediterranean) people suffer water shortages Modest increase in yields Declines in crop yields in 150—550 million more Potential water supply decrease of 30-50% in southern Africa and Mediterranean in temperature regions tropical regions (5-10% in people at risk of hunger. Africa) At least 300,000 die each 40-60 million more year from climate-related exposed to malaria in Africapotentially people die diseases. Reduction in winter mortality in high latitudes Increased damage from Up to 10 million more coastal flooding people exposed to coastal flooding Yields decline by 15-35% in Africa. Some entire regions out of agricultural production Up to 80 million more people exposed to malaria annually from malnutrition in Africa Yields likely to peak at higher latitudes 1—3 million more Up to 170 million more people exposed to coastal flooding Up to 300 million more people exposed to coastal flooding At least 10% of land 15-40% of species species facing extinction, potentially face extinction Increased wildfire risk 20-50% of species Loss of half of Arctic potentially face extinction tundra Widespread loss of Possible onset of collapse coral reefs of Amazon forest Large glaciers in Himalayas possibly disappear, affecting % of China's population Increase in ocean acidity possibly reduces fish stocks Further disease increase and substantial burdens on health care services Sea-level rise threatens major cities such as New York, Tokyo, and London Significant extinctions across the globe Greenhouse gas emissions (C02e) by gas, World Global greenhouse gas emissions by gas source, measured in thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (kt CO^e). Gases are converted to their COze values based on their global warming potential factors. HFC, PFC and SF6 are collectively known as 'F-gases'. OurWorld in Data 40 million 30 million 20 million 10 million HFC gases PFC gases — SFe gases — Nitrous oxide (N2O) - Methane (CH4) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 1975 1980 1985 Source: World Bank - World Development Indicators (WDI) 1995 2000 2005 2012 OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA Global carbon dioxide emissions by sector (Gg co2) Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, measured in gigagrams of CO2 per year. 30 million 25 million 20 million 15 million 10 million 5 million OurWorld in Data Other sources Waste Residential & commercial Industry — Transport Agriculture, Land Use & Forestry — Energy 1995 Source: UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) 2005 2010 OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA Methane emissions by sector (Gg C02e) Breakdown of total global methane (ChU) emissions by sector, measured in gigagrams of carbon-dioxide equivalents (CChe). Carbon dioxide equivalents measures the total greenhouse gas potential of the full combination of gases, weighted by their relative warming impacts. OurWorld in Data 5 million 4 million 3 million 2 million 1 million — Other sources Residential & commercial Industry — Land use — Agriculture — Energy 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 Source: UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA Nitrous oxide emissions by sector (Gg CC^e), World Breakdown of total global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by sector, measured in gigagrams of carbon-dioxide equivalents (COze). Carbon dioxide equivalents measures the total greenhouse gas potential of the full combination of gases, weighted by their relative warming impacts. OurWorld in Data Important Events in International Climate Change Negotiations Year, Location Outcome 1992, Rio de Janeiro 1995, Berlin 1997, Kyoto 2001, Bonn 2009, Copenhagen 2011, Durban UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries agree to reduce emissions with "common but differentiated responsibilities." The first annual Conference of the Parties to the framework, known as a COP. U.S. agrees to exempt developing countries from binding obligations. At the third Conference of the Parties (COP-3) the Kyoto Protocol is approved, mandating developed countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions relative to baseline emissions by 2008-2012 period. (COP-6) reaches agreement on terms for compliance and financing. Bush administration rejects the Kyoto Protocol; U.S.is only an observer at the talks. COP-15 fails to produce a binding post-Kyoto agreement, but declares the importance of limiting warming to under 2°C. Developed countries pledge $100 billion in climate aid to developing countries. (COP-17) participating countries agreed to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change as soon as possible, and no later than 2015, to take effect by 2020. 2015, Paris COP-21 195 nations sign the Paris Agreement, providing for worldwide voluntary actions (INDC's) by individual countries. International (UN) regime to fight climate change • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — 1988. (Last report 10/2018) • Rio Summit on Earth - 1992 (UN conference on environment and development) • UNFCCC (UN Framework convention on Climate Change) - consensus vs. 180 parties. Existence of a generally accepted consensus on the climate change as well as the contribution of human activities to this change • Common but differentiated responsibility • Kyoto Protocol - approved in 1997, in force 2005. Kyoto Protocol • 4 GHG (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) + hydrofluorocarbons and pefluorocarbons. • Annex I. countries (37 industrialized countries + EU15), Non-annex I. parties. • Reducing of GHG emissions by 5,2 % for the first commitment period of 2008-2012. (4,2 % after USA left). Base year 1990. • Reduction of emissions from fossil fuel combustion; reduction emission in other sectors (land-use or direct industrial emissions); flexible mechanisms — Emission trading, CDM, JI. • First (and only) binding international treaty on climate change mitigation, with enforceable (to some extent) targets and schedule, channeling investments into low-carbon technologies. Cumulative CO2 emissions, 1997 Cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions represents the total sum of CO2 emissions since 1751, and is measured in million tonnes. OurWorld in Data 0 Mt No data _ 5,000 Mt 10,000 Mt 75,000 Mt 20,000 Mt 200,000 Mt Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC) OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA CCh emissions per capita vs GDP per capita (international^), 1997 Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita (tonnes per year) vs GDP per capita (int.-$). The size of the bubbles represent population size. OurWorld in Data 05 m o E >^i^irrvfcfn^riQrad>rtJkd jiripltiriLTi^Bd 01 MÍi«dul«d ľur ^ íjrticri ^ in>JcrrkifiTiMl Drsďwi±iůdlLrlmpfcTiůVjrAi-i í/J Cirban uk mplcmtrmMl ov sďMdJcd. E~S urric ccradcrjoori liri^ 1 E~S w Ľ^tcn ľ*í ij^ůcr üöj-üöt'JilDn fl/ E~S Itipttrr*ri:ľ d o.' adricdukd, ut^u: LrdH-íWKlclĽ'jrlwi GtCO, 36 10 5 - Noo Ptřttcipittg Ann«i i Par *• • • • ■■•IIIMi lit* -r^: iôô3 ISM -řř; 2002 ::cf :::: 2012 Global CO^ emissions by world region, 1751 to 2015 Annual carbon dioxide emissions in billion tonnes (Gt). Our World in Data 1760 1??0 1?30 179CM9001&1Q lflSO 1640 10501™ 1STQ lflflO 1B8Q 1 900l9lD ISQQ 1930 lSHU 195Q1JSO |S?0 i960 ieSCl2000™lC Data aounce: Carbon Blonde inramatKW Analyala Center oCDlACj; aggregation Cv world nsgcn by Our world In Data. I no interactive dala Yistializallon la available atOurWondinData.c