Energy transition in developing world – sub
Saharan Africa
Filip Černoch
cernoch@mail.muni.cz
Sub-Saharan Africa
2
Fundamentals
3
• Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 4.5% of global energy demand, having 14% of the
world´s population.
• Rapid population growth -180 million in 2050; 1.05 bn. in 2017; (expected) 2.2 bn. in
2050, and (expected) 3.9bn in 2095.
• Urbanisation – by 2030, more than 50% of people in cities, by 2050 more than 60%.
• Region is rich with resources (both fossil and renewables) but poor with energy.
• Potential advantage is growing working-age population.
• The economy of the region is still smaller than that of Germany (sic). Agriculture
65% of employment, mining for export.
• Significant role (FDI, trade) of the EU, growing role of China (oil-related
investments in Angola, Chand and Uganda, gas investment in Mozambique, or hydro
in Ethiopia and Nigeria).
• Governance shortomings preventing foreign investments – low-quality institutions.
Energy sector
4
• Solid biomas (incl. charcoal in urban areas) makes up over half of total primary
energy demand (mainly household cooking).
• Coal (largely concentrated in SA) and oil account for roughly equal shares, together
they meet about 1/3 of total primary demand.
• Modern RES (incl. modern use of biomas) 18%.
• Natural gas about 4% (2/3 in Nigeria).
• Significant role of back-up diesel generators.
…(data for 2016).
Energy access
5
• Reliable supplies of electricity essential economic development. (590 million people
without electricity, 80% of them in rural areas).
• Electricity prices very high by world standards, despite being often bellow the costs of
supply (subsidies for oil).
• Number of people without access to electricity stopped increasing in 2013, is decreasing
slowly.
Population without
access to
electricity, 2016
6
Energy access
7
• Clean cooking – health and environmental improvements, economic opportunities
for women. (4/5 of the people rely on solid biomas for cooking now, 78% million).
• This increased by nearly 50% since 2000.
• 6% of people using kerosene.
Population
relying on solid
biomass for
cooking, 2015
8
Hydrocarbon resources
9
• Niger Delta Basin – oil and gas; Nigerian waters, Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea. 12th richest
basin in undiscovered oil resources in the world.
• East African Rift – Uganda, also Kenya, DR Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Ethiopia.
• East African Coastal – over 5 tcm of gas resources in waters off Mozambique and Tanzania.
• West Africant Transform Margin – Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Cote d´Ivore.
• West Coast Pre-Salt – Gabon, Congo, Angola. Natural gas primarily.
= The whole region around 65 bn. barrels of proven oil reserves (about 5% of the world). ¾ in
Nigeria and Angola.
= 9 tcm (5% of the global total) of natural gas, often flared (1/3 of the whole production).
= estimated 120 bn. tons of coal (less than 1% of world reserves) in the southern part of the
continents, lack of exploration and data. SA, Mozambique etc.
= Uranium resources in Namibia, Niger, SA.
Renewable potential
10
1) Electricity access
11
• In 2013 the trend of population growth outpacing
electrification reversed.
• By 2040, 950 million people to gain access to
electricity. Mainly in urban areas.
• Increasing role of renewables. Decentralized
systems, off-grid systems?
• Still 530 million people in mainly rural areas without
electricity by 2040.
• Electrification undermining development goals of
clean energy and climate action?
Installed power generation capacity, New Policies
Scenario of IEA
12
2) Future role of biomass
13
• Solid biomass (fuelwood, straw,
charcoal, dried animal and human
waste) accounts for about 70% of final
energy use in the region (80% with SA
excluded).
• Cooking primarily.
• Environmental consequences, health
effect.
• Policy actions and wood scarcity may
encourage usage of LPG and more
efficient cookstoves, but 650 million
people still cooking with biomass in
2040.
3) Nigeria and its oil
14
• Angola is overtaking Nigeria as the largest sub-Saharan oil producer.
• In Nigeria, regulatory uncertainty, militant aktivity, oil theft (bunkering) in the Niger
Delta compromise production.
• Oil theft estimated at 150 kb/d plus oil spills due to sabotages (= 14% of output) –
lost revenue of more than USD 5bn/y. Situation getting worse in the last two years.
• Nigeria as a rentier state – largest economy in the region but several key human
development indicators (education, life expectancy) on the regional average.
4) South Africa, Mozambique and Tanzania
15
South Africa
• High dependency on coal – around 70% of primary energy demand and around 90%
of electricity output (electricity prices used to be one of the lowest in the world).
However, easily accessible reserves getting depleted, rising costs of transportation.
• Diversification efforts include renewables, natural gas and, potentially, also nuclear.
Mozambique, Tanzania
• Recent natural gas discoveries expected to facilitate economic development.
• LNG facilities for export, incentives to increase domestic consumption.
Average annual investment in energy supply, New Policies
Scenario of IEA
16
Diesel generators vs. PV units
17
• Diesel generators used to back-up the (unreliable) grid – outages for 6% of the time on
average, in some countries (Nigeria, Guinea, Central African Republic) much higher
figures.
• Nigeria the largest African importer of the generators, spending almost USD 22 bn. for
fuel only (5bn above the price of electricity).
Prospects?
18
• Energy is interlinked both with economic growth of the region and global climate.
• Socially, economicaly and environmentaly sustainable growth needs stable and
predictable institutions.
• Enormous investments needed. (Green climate fund?)
• Population growth challenge to economic stability.
• Energy transition to renewable energy? Is coal to be used in the energy mix?
19
Sources
• World Population Review (2018): Sub Saharan Africa Population 2018.
• IEA (2014): Africa Energy Outlook.
• IEA (2017): Energy Access Outlook 2017: From Powerty to Prosperity.
• Hafner, M.; Tagliapietra, S.; de Strasser, L.(2017): Energy In Africa: Challenges and
Opportunities.
• Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (2018): Electrifying Africa.