INTERNATIONAL SECURITY - IRE107 FALL 2018 Has war changed? dr. Martin Chovančík dr. Petr Suchý dr. Maya Hadar Image result for war war never changes TERMS ¡War ¡Clausewitz: an act of violence to compel our opponent to fulfil our will ¡continuation of politics by other means ¡absolute or real ¡exact definitions abound ¡ ¡Warfare ¡the actual acts of waging war, acts undertaken to destroy or undermine the strength of the adversary ¡ ¡Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) ¡concept of major changes in military doctrine and technology, which fundamentally alters the character of warfare ¡is not our focus Image result for define character of war center oxford AUTHORITATIVE BOOKS ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Image result for benbow magic bullet Image result for new wars kaldor Image result for changing character of war strachan Image result for clausewitz on war Image result for clausewitz trinity CLASSICAL/OLD/TRADITIONAL WAR ¡There is absolutely no avoiding Carl von Clausewitz’s ON WAR (Prussia, 1832) ¡ ¡War is a combination of two trinities under the fog of war: ¡hatred/emotionality – the people ¡chance/creativity – the commanders ¡reason/rationality – the state ¡ ¡War exist in two forms, one ideal one real world: ¡absolute: “to introduce the principle of moderation into the theory of war itself would always lead to logical absurdity,” (a prevalence of the emotional aspect without limitations) ¡real: “from the abstract to the real world . . . the whole thing looks quite different.” (limited in reality by rationality) ¡the combination is most visible in HOW wars are waged (chance/creativity) ¡Clausewitz’s investigation of absolute war lead to criticism of his support for total war ¡total war: war waged with the mobilization and therefore legitimization of all military, economic, and societal resources ¡ OLD WARS TENETS ¡war aims are political goals: control of state or territory ¡political goals (i.e. rationality) dictate or limit the destructive nature by diplomacy ¡states have monopolies on authorized violence and they are the primary if not only actors in war (interstate war) ¡wars reflect political declarations and therefore enable and are supported by national mobilizations ¡soldiers are the primary targets on a defined battlefield ¡civilians are not primarily targeted as the objective is the defeat of military might and this would invite reciprocity ¡proportionality should be strictly observed as well as legality restrictions ¡battlefield outcomes tend to be more decisive ¡wars are financed from public sources according to their intensity ¡the trinity is pronounced and tends toward rationality limitations ¡ Territory must be controlled in order to derive profit from it (no longer true) OLD WARS CRITIQUE ¡insufficient explanation for modern conflict dynamics, especially after the end of the Cold War ¡cannot hold equal value when proportion of civil war is so dominating ¡weak and failing states do not provide the crucial element of rationality ¡in those states, and in fact around them, political aims of war are elusive and serve to further disintegrate the state (warlordism) ¡combatants are no longer being distinguished from non-combatants with the latter accounting for the majority of battle and battle-related deaths STRUCTURE OF CONFLICTS NEW WARS TENETS ¡war aims do not need to have political aims ¡the goals are less about ideologies, territory, and state than about identity politics ¡less so a continuation of policy by other means than an end in itself ¡states are no longer the primary actors, the primary actors are groupings defined by a common belonging which is informed by hostility toward another grouping ¡maintained with high-levels of destruction even at low-intensity, without clear battlefield outcomes ¡mobilization of support is key, therefore the population becomes a target ¡civilian base is the primary target while avoiding military confrontation (not guerilla tactics) ¡disregard for legal restrictions of warfare ¡utilization of terror tactics, sexual violence, exploitation, methodic starvation ¡undefined battlefield and actors, blurring of civilians and fighters ¡aims sometimes completely absent, local or overall perpetuation is motivated by gains ¡financing doesn’t come from public sources but via globalization (diasporas, external support, aid) ¡ MAIN CHANGES -Aims - -Targets - -Methods - -Conflict utility - -Intensity - -Financing - NEW WAR CRITIQUE AND SYNTHESIS I ¡Ratios ¡original claim says that while old wars average a 8:1 (soldier to civilian) death ratios, new wars are reversed with 1:8 ¡Cambodia 1:9; Bosnia 1:3; Iraq 1:5; Sri Lanka 1:1 ¡But is this the whole story? direct vs. indirect deaths ¡Identities ¡lesser value assigned to actual political aims remains controversial ¡actual mix contains both but happens more often along identity lines ¡Methods ¡the increase in targeting civilians with terror tactics is tangible, while not new, the prevalence is visible ¡Financing ¡perhaps among the key and actually new dynamics ¡global connection far simpler and protraction actually feasible ¡diasporas, organized crime, rebel governance, aid diversion Image result for useful enemies david keen NEW WAR CRITIQUE AND SYNTHESIS II ¡overlooks for example colonial wars or the “barbarization” of war during WWII ¡ ¡“Call it what you will— new war, ethnic war, guerrilla war, low-intensity war, terrorism, or the war on terrorism—in the end, there is only one meaningful category of war, and that is war itself.” (Smith in Schuurman Clausewitz and the “New Wars” Scholars, 2010:97) ¡ ¡while all three elements of the trinity can be found in every armed conflict, the relative prevalence of one or the other can strongly influence a particular conflict’s character ¡ ¡profound implications for addressing conflict (prevention, management, resolution, post-conflict reconstruction) ¡military superiority only has limited use ¡influencing popular support is far more effective ¡isolating the opponent from support within his identity group ¡conflicts are complex political emergencies Image result for war in the tribal zone\ COMPLEX POLITICAL EMERGENCY ¡“A major emergency is a humanitarian crisis in a country, region or society where there is a dramatic disruption in the political, economic and social situation, resulting from internal or external conflict or natural disaster, seriously disrupting the population’s capacity to survive and the national authorities’ capacity to respond, and which requires a consolidated multi-sectoral international response” (IASC of the United Nations) ¡ ¡Revised by OHCA – POLITICAL ELEMENT – above renamed to ‘major emergency’ where local capacities are inadequate (drought) ¡ ¡Major humanitarian crises of a multi-causal nature requiring a system-wide response ¡ ¡Modern INTRA-STATE CONFLICTS are the primary source of COMPLEX POLITICAL EMERGENCIES ¡ INTRA-STATE WARS DEVELOPMENT ¡3 main eras of civil war ¡civil war: armed conflict in the confines of a sovereign state between parties previously under the same authority ¡ 1.Until the first half of the 20th century – conventional wars ¡irregular warfare/asymmetric warfare was a feature of colonial rather than civil wars ¡even revolutions considered irregular warfare of unworthy for the struggle (Lenin, Trotsky, initially even Zedong) ¡ 2.Cold War – insurgencies and irregular wars ¡as much as 70% of civil wars were based around irregular warfare (where guerrilla tactics were only a part of the strategy – outside support and highly structured political organizations) ¡national liberation movements (mix of nationalism and communism) ¡ 3.Post-CW – predominantly low-tech symmetric wars and conventional wars (as much as 70% now) 1.a decline in irregular warfare, but a persistence and development of low-tech low-intensity high-destruction wars coupled with internationalization 2.weaker states fall prey to rebellion more easily which results in internationalization, which in turn leads to conventional wars over protracted irregular warfare OUR BETTER ANGELS – SO IS WAR DECLINING? ¡multiple theses exemplified by thinkers such as Steven Pinker, John Mueller, Joshua Goldstein ¡the central argument revolves around a systemic decrease in violence over millennia ¡focused on wars, homicide rates, genocide, death penalty, torture, slavery, etc. ¡tolerance is increasing ¡wars are less deadly and becoming obsolete ¡wars can and will be eliminated – like polio ¡ ¡Reasons? - we are smarter, more empathic, more tolerant, more democratic, more liberal, etc. than before ¡ ¡How true is this hypothesis? Early 19^th century thinking was the same (Auguste Comte) Enlightenment’s dark side https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Bubble-and-lines-FINAL-03.png IS WAR DECLINING? ¡What can you tell from this graph? ¡ ¡What does Fazal say about it and what does Gray? ¡ https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Deaths-per-battle-01.png Average battle deaths falling, but number of conflicts increasing Long or short peace? Cyclical Nuclear war? Fossil fuel depletion? IS JUST WAR BECOMING A STAPLE MARKER? ¡3 limits to just war Jus ad bellum, Jus in bello, Jus post bellum ¡ ¡ 1.Just cause - Just defense or correcting a wrongdoing ¡2. Legitimate authority - Initially only granted to monarchs and heads of state ¡3. Right intent - Achieving a better peace ¡4. Proportionality - Benefits outweigh overall cost ¡5. Fair chance of success ¡6. Last resort ¡ ¡1. Discrimination ¡2. Proportionality of means DEMOCRACY PRESUPPOSED ¡Democratic peace theory ¡prone to no war amongst them, less war outside, less destructive, less violent ¡coupled with liberalism and capitalism ¡the ultimate antidote to war? ¡the necessary end-state? ¡ ¡Authoritarian capitalism ¡a more than viable alternative ¡often revisionist versus the status quo ¡China and Russia at the least ¡Short-lived democratic peace? Image result for azar gat how democracies https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ourworldindata_percentage-of-years-in-which-t he-great-powers-fought-one-another-1500%E2%80%932000.png