INTERNATIONAL SECURITY - IRE107 FALL 2018 Conflict management dr. Martin Chovančík dr. Petr Suchý dr. Maya Hadar STARTING DISCUSSION ¡How have the causes of war and changing character of war impacted on conflict management/resolution? ¡ ¡What makes conflicts intractable / harder to manage? Victimization over time Incompatibility of belief systems Extreme fractionalization War profiteering Loss-of-face incentive Acknowledging legitimacy and sovereignty COLLECTIVE SECURITY ¡or why we should care about managing conflict (addressing conflict to be more precise) ¡ ¡the necessary assumption of collective security is simply that war are likely occur and that they ought to be prevented ¡ ¡collective security is not a design for organizing coalition warfare in the twentieth-century sense, but a plan for organizing international police action in an unprecedented sense ¡the conflicts may be the fruit of unreflective passion or of deliberate planning; they may represent efforts to settle disputes. effects of undefinably broad situations of hostility, or calculated means to realize ambitious designs of conquest. They may be launched by the irresponsible dictate of cynical autocrats or the democratic will of a chauvinistic people-although the champions of collective security have frequently evinced the conviction that most wars are likely to stem from the former type of initiative. The point is that the theory of collective security is not invalidated by the discovery that the causes, functional purposes and initiatory mechanisms of war are varied. (Claude 1984) THE SPECTRUM OF TASKS ¡conflict prevention: ¡Activities aimed at preventing the occurrence and escalation of conflicts into their armed stage. ¡conflict management: ¡Activities aimed at the armed aspects of crises with the objective of stopping active combat, containing crisis spillover and minimizing destructive impacts. ¡conflict resolution: ¡Activities aimed at achieving a voluntary mutual peaceful solution to common incompatibilities and a cessation of hostilities. ¡post-conflict reconstruction: ¡Activities aimed at rebuilding the socioeconomic structure and conditions for stable peace. ¡ CONFLICT CYCLE ¡ C:\Users\USER\Desktop\Untitled.png ACTUAL CONFLICT CYCLES escalation CONFLICT PREVENTION ¡Structural prevention ¡Long-term efforts on political, economic, developmental, cultural, civil society level ¡Emphasis on the indivisibility of security ¡IO membership, association agreements, cooperation, development programmes ¡ ¡Direct prevention ¡Immediate efforts during initial crisis phases ¡Early warning, mediation and shuttle diplomacy ¡Lackluster in practice ¡ ¡ ¡Early warning systems ¡Global and regional initiatives to identify crises prior to potential escalation ¡UN – 1998 primary initiative, 2000 Prevention team ¡IGAD – 2002 – CEWARN in the Horn of Africa ¡AU – 2009 – CEWS Continental EWS ¡ ¡Indicators to watch (WB): ¡past conflict, low income, high export dependence, political instability, human rights, militarization, ethnic dominance, regional conflict, unemployment rate among young adults, distribution of access to natural resources ¡ CONFLICT PREVENTION - PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY ¡Problem with precise definition ¡Could possibly encompass all of diplomacy (in the structural segment) by way of “building stable societies/states” argument ¡Pre-emptive diplomacy might suit as a better term, but is disused ¡Definition: ¡Action taken in vulnerable places and times to avoid the threat or use of armed force and related forms of coercion by states or groups to settle the political disputes that can arise from the destabilizing effects of economic, social, political, and international change. (Lund 1996) ¡Instruments: ¡International appeals – suasion, Fact-finding missions, on-site monitoring, Good offices, Early warning systems, Official diplomacy, Two-track diplomacy, Conciliatory gestures, Mediation, Incentive offerings, Negotiation forums ¡Note that they do not contain coercive measures ¡ CONFLICT MANAGEMENT ¡Conflict management de-escalation strategies ¡ ¡GRIT graduated reciprocation in tension-reduction ¡One-sided announcement of conciliatory measures, which continues even without immediate reciprocity ¡ ¡TFT Tit for Tat ¡Simulation and game theory based ¡Initiate cooperative stance, and then reciprocate consistently depending adversary’s response (positive or negative) ¡ ¡Mutually enticing opportunity ¡Third party creation of conditions with pull-factor from current deadlock or Mutually Hurting Stalemate ¡ ¡ Image result for zartman conflict management CONFLICT MANAGEMENT - MEDIATION ¡Mediation ¡Defined as negotiation facilitated by third, presumably impartial, parties, to help seek a solution the direct parties cannot find themselves ¡Voluntary ¡in selecting mediation, mediator, presence, progress, and most of all propositions and results ¡Dynamic process ¡ ¡concession, compensation, and construction OR positive-sum negotiations and bargaining negotiations ¡Cheap ¡cheaper than any other form of third party involvement ¡Absence of coercion ¡Although possibility of “mediation with muscle” the process of combining conflicting positions into a joint agreement… and is the most common (although not the only) way of preventing, managing, resolving, and transforming conflicts (Zartman 2009: 322). MILITARY CONFLICT MANAGEMENT ¡intervention by mainly military, usually multinational force ¡ ¡activities aimed at creating/maintaining a secure environment in order to end a crisis and/or enable peace to be established/maintained ¡ ¡MCM includes: ¡peacekeeping missions ¡conflict prevention missions ¡stabilization and reconstruction missions ¡humanitarian missions ¡ Image result for oxford handbook of peacekeeping operations MILITARY CONFLICT MANAGEMENT ¡first, the spectrum of tasks has expanded ¡ ¡from traditional peacekeeping (containment and reduction of military escalation) to social, political, and economic transformation (conflict resolution) ¡ ¡from consenting states to hostile environments ¡ ¡from buffer zones to active engagement ¡ ¡from single actors to multinational coalitions and IOs in cooperation to cover the spectrum ¡ ¡“Comprehensive Approach” to complex political emergencies Image result for un peacekeeping bellamy CONFLICT RESOLUTION ¡Peacemaking in the narrow definition ¡ ¡unless victory is achieved stems from negotiation ¡ ¡resolution options revolve around ¡Priority change ¡Division of subject of contention (part in the executive) ¡Barter exchange ¡Joint control (coalition) ¡Delegated control ¡Arbitrage ¡Deferral ¡ ¡employed instruments involve ALL deployed instruments - MULTITRACK ¡ ¡ Image result for armed conflict resolution ramsbotham CONFLICT RESOLUTION - NEGOTIATION ¡1. pre-negotiation ¡our dominant field today, where mediation comes into play the most often ¡aims to frame a possible acceptance of a negotiated settlement or even meeting for negotiations ¡2. agreement formula ¡within the negotiation or mediation processes this phase entails the establishment of major agreement framework such as recognition, need for concessions, shared rule, or third party assistance ¡3. agreement details ¡perhaps the longest phase delivers the specifics ¡ ¡actors readjust their strategies ‘phase by phase’ according to their subjective consideration of three factors: ¡the contents of the peace proposal, ¡the resources under their control ¡the strength of the incentives and pressures from external interveners. ¡ CONFLICT RESOLUTION ¡Dilemmas include: ¡ ¡Negotiated settlement vs. Victory ¡strenuous debate over more stable and lasting peace ¡Inclusivity vs. Spoilers ¡negotiation dilemma of including relevant stakeholders ¡Guarantees vs. Non-intervention ¡peace agreement guarantor and guarantees ¡ POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION ¡Activities aimed at renewing the socio-economic structure of the society and the establishment of adequate conditions for the secure and peaceful development of society ¡ ¡Key concepts: ¡System inclusion ¡External assistance ¡Sustainability after self reliance ¡ ¡Reconstruction serves as structural prevention ¡ ¡Nation building – synonym for post-conflict reconstruction? Or for democratization and westernization? – only a part of post-conflict reconstruction POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION ¡4 pillars ¡Security – crucial to any success ¡Civilian security, DDR, buffer zones, civilian control over armed forces, training ¡ ¡Justice and Reconcilliation – establishment of rule of law ¡Preventing reprisals, interim justice, human right legislation, police training ¡ ¡Social and economic well-being – aid and resources distribution ¡Elementary food and water security, repatriations, infrastructure reconstruction, requalification training, subsidies and investments ¡ ¡Governance and participation – transitive authority support ¡NGO cooperation, interim government support, election preparations, legislation expertise transfer, civil society support ¡ 2002 Post-Conflict Reconstruction (CSIS/AUSA)