Nuclear arms race in the first nuclear age Nuclear Weapons Proliferation • 1st Nuclear Age – 1945 – 1989 • Vertical proliferation • 2nd Nuclear Age – 1990 – present • Horizontal proliferation Motives for NW Proliferation • USA 1945 • USSR 1949 • Belarus • Ukraine • Kazakhstan • Great Britain 1952 • France 1960 • China 1964 • Israel 1966 • India 1974 • South Africa 1979 • Pakistan 1998 • North Korea 2006 Nuclear RMA „The historical trajectory of the (US) nuclear RMA was as follows: (1)the scientists told the politicians and bureaucrats what might be achieved with patience, a great deal of money, and a huge industrial effort (1939–41); (2)the politicians and officials, after much delay and notwithstanding some initial skepticism, decided that the scientists’ story had to be tested (1941–45); (3)the military sought to fashion a nuclear-armed long-range striking force which actually could express a radical change in the character and conduct of war (1948–54/55); (4)and finally a body of scholar-commentators appeared which tried to make strategic sense of the nuclear RMA that already was a well established fact (1954–57). Each of these four clusters of people shared parentage of the nuclear RMA. When we refer to the nuclear revolution we mean not just the military-technical epiphanies exploded in 1945, 1949, 1952, and 1955. In addition, we mean the military instrument(s) and the political, moral, strategic, and other contexts shaped by the radical change in warfare.“ Gray, C. S.: Strategy for Chaos, p. 204. Nuclear Stockpiles of the USA and USSR 1945-1989 USA USSR 1945 6 0 1950 369 5 1955 3057 200 1960 20 434 1605 1965 31 642 6129 1970 26 119 11 643 1975 27 052 19 055 1980 23 764 30 062 1985 23 135 39 197 1989 22 174 35 805 U.S. Strategic Concepts • Massive Retaliation • Flexible Response Soviet Thinking on NW • Stalin • Khrushchev • Brezhnev • Gorbachev Strategic Weapons MAD • Declaratory doctrine Strategic Triad SS-11 Sego • 990 missiles deployed between 1966-1972 Strategic Weapons Strategic Weapons MIRVs Strategic Weapons Strategic Weapons