Dr. Houman A. Sadri Associate Professor of International Relations Coordinator of Model United Nations Program University of Central Florida 1 Outline —1. Introduction — 1.1. After the end of Cold War — 1.2. Geopolitical Importance — 1.3. Energy Resource — 1.4. Military Significance — —2. Challenges of the security — 1.1. Separatism — 1.2. Internal Instability — 1.3. International Rivalry 1. —3. “Clash of Civilization” Paradigm 3. —4. Conclusions — 2 1. Introduction —1.1. After the end of Cold War —1.2. Geopolitical Importance —1.3. Energy Resource —1.4. Military Significance — — 3 1.1. After the end of Cold War End of History and the Last Man End of Cold War 1991 1992 1996 4 1. Introduction —1.1. After the end of Cold War —1.2. Geopolitical Importance —1.3. Energy Resource —1.4. Military Significance — — 5 1.2. Geopolitical Importance https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/ref_maps/pdf/political_world.p df 6 1. Introduction —1.1. After the end of Cold War —1.2. Geopolitical Importance —1.3. Energy Resource —1.4. Military Significance — — — 7 1.3. Energy Resources 8 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/ref_maps/pdf/political_world.p df 1.3. Energy Resources [USEMAP] Source: http://www.azerbaijan.az/_Economy/_OilStrategy/pipelines/btc.html 9 1. Introduction —1.1. After the end of Cold War —1.2. Geopolitical Importance —1.3. Energy Resource —1.4. Military Significance — — 10 1.4. Military Significance Kazakhstan 11 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/ref_maps/pdf/political_world.p df 2. Challenges of Security 2.1. Separatism — 2.1.1. Economic implications — 2.1.2. Ethnic tensions — 2.1.3. Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict — 2.1.4. Unexpected impact of the Georgian’s separatists conflicts — 2.1.5. Unexpected impact of the ethnic and religious tensions, the case of the Azeri and Turkey relationship — 12 2. Challenges of Security 2.2. Internal Instability — 2.2.1. Political Instability: — 2.2.1.1. The Super-presidential — 2.2.1.2. Political Rights and Civil Rights — — 2.2.2. Economic Instability: — 2.2.2.1. Azeri Economic Instability — 2.2.2.2. Armenian Isolation — 2.2.2.3. Georgian Economic Collapse — — — 13 2. Challenges of Security: 2.3. International Rivalry — — 2.3.1. Global Energy Politics — — — 2.3.2. Rivalry between Global Security Alignments and Regional Organizations: — — — 2.3.3. Political Rivalry between Global and Regional Powers 14 Analyzing Clash of Civilizations —“Global Security Watch—The Caucasus States” —By Dr. Houman A. Sadri, Professor of Int’l Relations. —April 2010, Praeger Publishers, New York, USA —Hard Cover, 270 Pages —ISBN: 978-0-313-37980-2 —Summary: This insider perspective —examines the main sources of security —threat and political instability in the —Caucasus states of Azerbaijan, Armenia, —and Georgia, as it tests the “Clash of Civilizations” view. 15 3. Clash of Civilizations: Testing! States Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Iran Turkey Russia USA Armenia 1 Negative Expected Neutral Unexpected Positive Unexpected Negative Expected Positive Expected Neutral Unexpected Azerbaijan 1 Positive Unexpected Negative Unexpected Positive Expected Negative Expected Positive Unexpected Georgia 1 Positive Unexpected Positive Unexpected Negative Unexpected Positive Unexpected Iran 1 Neutral Unexpected Positive Unexpected Negative Expected Turkey 1 Positive Unexpected Positive Unexpected Russia 1 Negative Expected USA 1 Source: Sadri, Houman A. 2010. Global Security Watch: The Caucasus States. California: Praeger. p 143 16 3. Clash of Civilizations Levels of Relationships Clash of Civilizations Expected Unexpected Global Level 4 7 Regional Level 2 5 Neighboring State-to-State 1 2 Total 7 14 Source: Sadri, Houman A. 2010. Global Security Watch: The Caucasus States. California: Praeger. p 146 17 4. Conclusions — 4.1. The Clash of Civilizations concept failed to predict state relationships in the region. — 4.2. Historically, the concept of the Great Game and the Balance of Powers has been applied to the region. — 4.3. The most prudent explanation of the causes of security threat for the Caucasus states must rely on the three common factors : — 4.3.1. Separatism — 4.3.2. Internal instability, and — 4.3.3. International rivalry. — 18 Dr. Houman A. Sadri, Houman. Sadri@ucf.edu Associate Professor of International Relations University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida 32816-1356 USA 19