Perspectives for Kazakhstan in the Region • •Dr. Hugh (Houman) Sadri, Professor & •Coordinator of the Model U.N. Program •President of IPAC Foundation •(www.IPACnet.org) •USA Government Consultant •Houman.Sadri@UCF.edu •Phone: 001 (407) 823-6023 • Traditional Border Threats The First Line of Threat: “Neighboring States” http://www2.umt.edu/cali/MapCentralAsia.jpg http://www2.umt.edu/cali/MapCentralAsia.jpg Traditional Regional Threats The Second Line of Threat: “Neighboring States by Extension” http://www2.umt.edu/cali/MapCentralAsia.jpg http://www2.umt.edu/cali/MapCentralAsia.jpg Kazakhstan Topographic Map: A Country Geographically Exposed • Security, Threats, & Geopolitics •Traditional Security Issues: –State-to-State Problems •Neighboring States •Great Powers –Border Disputes •Historical Border Disputes •New Disputes Due to Certain Geo Changes (River banks) •New Disputes Due to Clarity Provided by Technology –Resource Conflicts & Wars •Oil & Natural Gas Fields •Water Disputes Security, Threats, & Geopolitics •New Security Challenges: –Non-State Actors: •Terrorism •Separatism •Jihadists –Illegal Trafficking •Drug Trafficking •Human Trafficking –Human Security •Environmental Problems: Ural Sea, Nuclear, Chemicals •Poverty: Old Problem with New Face Via Globalization – • International Security Environment •Kenneth Waltz Methodology: • • 1. International System Level – A. Global Level – B. Regional Level • 2. State Level • 3. Individual Level International Environment 1.International System Level A.Global Level – a. Russia: Maintaining Cooperation with Moscow – b. China: Growing Cooperation with Beijing – c. USA: Avoiding Isolation & Supporting Multivector Policy – d. EU: Establishing Closer Coop for Energy Needs –B. Regional Level – a. SCO: a Union for Regional Security – b. Promoting Peace in a Dangerous – Neighborhood with Afghanistan • Int’l Relations & Sources of Threat • •2. State Level • A. State-to-State Ties • a. Avoiding some states: Saudi • b. Working with others: Kyrgyzstan,… • B. Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy • a. Politics & Elections (Political Parties?) • b. Economy: Single-Commodity vs. Diversified • c. Radical Elements: Terrorists & Drug Traffickers Major Ethnic Groups Int’l Relations & Sources of Threat •3. Individual Level Challenges • A. Leadership Style • a. Nazarbayev vs. Karimov • B. Wisdom of Policy – a. Gradual Developments vs. Radical Moves & Iron fest • C. Establishing Personal Ties with Other Leaders • a. Examples: Nazarbayev-Putin; Nazarbayev-Obama Examples: Kazakhstan Wise Policies •Kazakh Strategic Economic & Political Ties • 1. Cooperating with Russia while Establishing Ties with Chevron (the first major investment) in 1993 • 2. Bolashak Program: 2000 students in Great Powers • 3. Astana’s role in Afghanistan, Iran, & Iraq Energy Routs in Central Asia •I Real vs. Perceived Threats •Literature Gives Priority to External Threats (ETs) –Some E.T.s Are Important, but Wars have Decreased –Outmoded Idea of Changing Behavior by Force (army) –Nowadays, Companies Change People’s Mind with Persuasion, while countries do it via propaganda •Internal Threats (ITs) Are More Impo than Before –I.T.s come in different Forms: Separates vs. Terrorists –Contend People do not Destabilize Govs: Human Security –Avoiding Discontent by Accountability & Transparency Real vs. Perceived Threats •Impact of Technological Revolution –Transportation –Telecommunication •Impact of Globalization –Creating Interdependence –Establishing Dependency –Independence is becoming a part of past •States Need Others for Development •Trade is the Engine of Development •Development is the Solution to Poverty •People are Empowered even in Dictatorships • Development via the Kazakh-EU Ties •Development as a Solution to Poverty •Increasing Economic Ties for • Decreasing Dependence •No Real Political Independence, without More Econ Independence •EU as an Economic, not Military Powerhouse •Diversifying the Sources of • Exports & Imports Economic relations •Note: Sharp decrease in Kazakhstan exports in 2009 is due to global financial crisis of 2008 •Chart was organized by B. Ospanova based on data of Eurastat gathered from 2006 and 2012 edition • •Chart was organized by B. Ospanova based on data of National Bank of Kazakhstan 2012 edition Economic Relations Working within the Region & SCO •Focus on Security: Types of Security, Mil to Econ •Multilateral vs. Bilateral Ties •Russian & Chinese Capital vs. US & EU Capital •Regional vs. State Nature of Challenges •No State alone can Resolve the Challenges •Regional Cooperation vs. Wasteful Conflict General Solutions for Kazakh Security Challenges: The 3 “E”s •1. Short-Term: Enriching both Economy & People •Development vs. Poverty: Poor has nothing to lose •Poverty Brings Protests & Instability •2. Mid-Term: Embarrassing (not Killing) Jihadists •Killing is a quick, but not always a final solution •Not making a Martyr: it is hard to fight martyrs •Losing face: Putting on defense, discrediting, & delegitimizing (Grants for discovering new info) •3. Long-Term: Educating (mostly youth & others) • Thank you: Any Questions? •Chinese President Xi Jinping (2nd R) and other leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Presidents of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon (L), Kyrgyzstan Almazbek Atambayev (2nd L), Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev (3rd L), Russia Vladimir Putin (3rd R) and Uzbekistan Islam Karimov (R), pose for a group photo before the 15th SCO summit in Ufa, Russia, July 10, 2015. (Xinhua/Li Xueren) •(http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-07/11/c_134402104.htm) •