Climate change and fossil fuels
V
Filip Cernoch cemoch@jnail.muni.cz
CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES
Explaining the climate change
• „How could scientists predict the climate in 100 years when they cannot predict the weather tomorrow? "
• Climate: atmospheric conditions over a long period of time (years to centuries).
•Weather: short time (minutes to weeks).
• Consequences for prediction — climate undergoes more gradual change (than weather) and is easier to predics.
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1) The planet's temperature is rising
•Over the past 130 years the global average temperature has increased by 0,8°C (more than half of that in last 35 years).
• Ocean accounts for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971-2010.
•Ancient ice samples (from Antarctica and other places) — their layers are dated and gas bubles inside are analysed.
• C02 concentration is measured by infrared spectroscopy or mass spektromectry.
• Isotope  ratios   of   water  molecules   are   measured to determine historical temperatures. center for
energy studies
The planet's temperature is rising
•Earth's climate has always fluctuated. The cooler period — ice ages or glacial periods, the warmer period — interglacial periods.
• Orbital variations
• Solar output
• Volcanism
• Plate tectonics
•The rate of change has become more dramatic since the Industrial Revolution = anthropogenic origins.
• Problems with adaptation — the change is too fast.
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Temperature Changes in the Past 800,000 Years
SOOJBD-
600,000
400,000
Years Before Present
Temperature (!C) relative to 1961-1990 average
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2) C02 level is increasing (also methane and nitrous oxide)
• C02 concentration increased by 40% since pre-industrial time. The ocean absorbed about 30% of this increase, causing ocean acidification.
• Also methane (150% increase) and nitrous oxide (20%).
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CO2 Concentrations in the Past 1000 Years
390
360
330
C02/ppmv
300
Mauna Loa atmospheric Law Dome {Ethendge el al.. 1996) Siple (Fnedii el al., 1986) EPICA DML (Siegenthater et al., 2005) S. Pole (Siegenthater et al.. 2005)
270
240
1000 1200
Graph courtesy o» Eric Wc*t at BAS
1400
1600
1800
Age ( year B.C.E.)
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3) We are responsible for the increase in C02
•Human C02 emissions (20 billion tons/y) are small compared to natural emission (776 billion tons/y).
•But natural absorptions (788 billion tons/y) roughly balance natural emisssions.
• Carbon 12 isotope to carbon 13 isotope ratio increases (isotope = different atoms with the same chemical behavior but with different masses).
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Global carbon cycle. Numbers represent reservoir mass (carbon stocks) and
annual carbon exchange fluxes. Black numbers and arrows indicate reservoir mass
and exchange fluxes estimated for the time prior to the Industrial Era (about CENTER FOR
1750). Red indicate annual anthropogenic fluxes averaged over the 2000-2009.       ENERGY STUDIES
4) Increased C02 is the primary driver of greenhouse effect
• Inbound solar radiation has short wavelenghts and high energy contents. This radiation passes through the atmosphere. Some energy is absorbed by the ground (warming it up). Some energy is reflected back to the space.
• That reflected radiation has lower energy levels and longer wavelengths. 80% of the outgoing radiation is trapped in the lower troposphere.
• Energy trapped in the troposphere warns the surface.
• More GHGs in the atmosphere trap more outbound solar radiation, thus warming the planet — anthropogenic climate change.
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Sunlight passes through the atmosphere and warms the Earth's surface. This heat is radiated back toward space.
Most of the outgoing heat is absorbed by greenhouse gas molecules and re-emitted in all directions, warming the surface of the Earth and the lower atmosphere.
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4) Increased C02 is the primary driver of greenhouse effect
• C02 traps infrared radiation (thermal radiation). Proven by laboratory experiments and satellites (satelit data from 1970; direct experimental evidence) that find less heat escaping out to space over the las few decades.
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Climate change controversy
• Positive/negative feedbacks — examining different period throughout Earth's history shows that feedbacks amplify or diminish any initial warming.
• Positive feedback
• Warming keeps more water in the air and more wapour traps more heat
• Warming releases carbon (methane) in the arctic — from thawing permafrost. Or from hydrates (water ice containing methane in its structure).
• Drying rainforest, forest fires. Desertification.
• Albedo feedback.
• Negative feedback
• More water vapour causes more clauds, reflecting sunlight.
• Increase in the overal amount of greenery — increased plants photosynthesis
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ENERGY STUDIES
Summary
• Earth's climate has undergone changes over long periods of time (several ice ages, period of warming).
• Previous changes were dramatic but gradual (thousands of years).
• Today's change is extremely fast and the pace is increasing. Until 250 years ago the highest rate of temperature increase recorded was approximately 0,003°C/y For the last ten years, it is 0,017°C
• Global warming vs. climate change. The first suggests that Earth's climate is warming on average, but it is not fully true. Factors such as precipitation and evaporation are also changing. And these changes often affect climate patterns elsewhere in the world.
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Summary
• There is scientific consensus on
• correlation between the concentration of C02 and temperature.
• that humans release anthropogenic compounds into the environment, resulting in previously unseen rises in atmospheric gas concentrations and temperature.
• There is continuous debate on
• the proportion of changes caused by this anthropogenic compound vs. other causes.
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Indicators of a Warming World
^^^^^^^^^^^
Parmesan & Yohe 2003J2, NOAA
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Recent trends in C02 emission - energy perspective
• Steady level of C02 (280 ppm) in the pre-industrial era; in 2013 396 ppm (40% higher than in the mid-1800s). Average growth of 2 ppm/y
• Significant increases in levels of methane and nitrous oxide.
• The use of energy represents by far the largest source of emissions.
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Greenhouse gas emissions (CChe) by gas, World
Global greenhouse gas emissions by gas source, measured in thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (kt CCbe). Gases are converted to their C02e values based on their global warming potential factors. HFC, PFC and SFe are collectively known as 'F-gases'.
40 million
30 million
HFC gases PFC gases
— SFe gases
— Nitrous oxide (N2O)
- Methane (CH4)
20 million
10 million
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
1975 1980 1985
Source: World Bank - World Development Indicators (WDI)
1995 2000 2005 2012
OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA
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Global carbon dioxide emissions by sector (Gg CO2)
Global carbon dioxide (CO?) emissions, measured in gigagrams of CO2 per year.
30 million
25 million
20 million
15 million
10 million
5 million
OurWorld in Data
Other sources Waste
Residential & commercial
Industry
— Transport
Agriculture, Land Use & Forestry
— Energy
1995
Source: UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)
2005 2010
OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA
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Methane emissions by sector (Gg C02e)
Breakdown of total global methane (ChU) emissions by sector, measured in gigagrams of carbon-dioxide equivalents (CC^e). Carbon dioxide equivalents measures the total greenhouse gas potential of the full combination of gases, weighted by their relative warming impacts.
OurWorld in Data
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Nitrous oxide emissions by sector (Gg C02e), World
Breakdown of total global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by sector, measured in gigagrams of carbon-dioxide equivalents (C02e). Carbon dioxide equivalents measures the total greenhouse gas potential of the full combination of gases, weighted by their relative warming impacts.
Our World in Data
3 million
2.5 million
2 million
1.5 million
1 million
500,000
1995
Source: UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)
2000
2005
— Other sources
International bunkers
— Waste
_ Residential and commercial Industry
— Transport Forestry
— Land use
— Agriculture
— Energy 2010
OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA
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Global electricity production by source
Global electricity production, measured as the percentage contribution from fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and low-carbon sources (nuclear, hydropower, biomass, wind, solar, geothermal and marine power)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
Fossil fuels (% — electricity production)
0%
1990 1995
Source: World Bank- World Development Indicators (WDI)
2000
Nuclear + _ Renewables (% electricity production)
2005 2010 2014
OurWorldlnData.org/energy-production-and-changing-energy-sources/ ■ CC BY-SA
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Recent trends in C02 emission - energy perspective
• In the last decade the coal have replaced oil as the largest source of C02 emissions.
•The top 10 emitting countries account for 2/3 of global C02 emissions.
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Top 10 emitting countries in 2012
China
United States
Russian Federation
Canada
Islamic Republic of Iran
Saudi Arabia
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Recent trends in C02 emission
• Emissions per capita generally decrease in time accross regions.
• All top five emitters reduced emissions per unit of GDP, while emissions per capita showed contrasting trends.
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Figure 15. Trends in COs emission intensities for the top five emitting countries*
■ The size of the circle fepresenls ihe total CO; emissions from the country In lhal year.
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Summary
• Economic growth strongly linked to consumption of fossil fuels.
• Substitution of fossil fuels is essential but extremely difficult.
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Climate change impacts
• Melting ice
• The vast majority of the world's glaciers are melting faster than are replenished.
• 1/3 of North Pole's ice sheets melted since 90s.
• Accelerated sea level rise, increase coastal flooding
• 20 cm in the last century (40% thermal expansivity, 60% melting of the land ice).
• Actual rate 3mm/y.
• Problem for low-lying communities (i.e. Bangladesh).
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Climate change impacts
• Increase in extreme weather events
• Climate change increases certain types of extreme weather events — heat waves, coastal flooding, extreme precipitation events, more severe droughts.
• Temperature — average kinetic energy of the molecules within a substance = the more radiation trapped in the atmosphere the higher temperature is.
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umber of Climate-related Disasters Around the World (1980-2011)
Climate change impacts
• Health impacts
• Increased air pollution, a longer and more intense allergy seasons, the spread of insect-borne diseases, more frequent heat waves, flooding = costly risks to public health.
• Food problems and water
• According to IPCC 1°C = 65 million people starving.
• Increase of the temperature of more than 2°C = 3 billion people without water supply.
• Between 18-35% of plant and animal species is committed to extinction by 2050 (oceans are absorbing much of the C02 in the air, which leads to ocean acidification — destabilising the whole oceanic food chain). An estimated 1 billion people depend on the ocean for more than 30% of their animal protein.
• Climate refugees.
• And others...
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The Relationship Between the Level of Greenhouse Gas Stabilization and Eventual Temperature Change
400 ppm C02 e
o°c
450
ppm C02 e
550 p pm C02 e
650 ppm C02 e
■4
750 ppm C02
4
1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
5°C
Eventual Temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
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Possible Effects of Climate Change
Eventual Temperature Rise Relative to Pre-Industrial Temperatures
Type of Impact 1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
5°C
Freshwater Supplies
Food and Agriculture
Human Health
Coastal Areas
Small glaciers in the Potential water supply        Serious droughts in
Andes disappear, decrease of 20-30% in somesouthern Europe every 10
threatening water supplies regions (Southern Africa     years, l^t- billion more for 50 million people       and Mediterranean) people suffer water
shortages
Modest increase in yields Declines in crop yields in    150—550 million more in tropical regions (5-10% in   people at risk of hunger,
temperature regions        Africa) Yields likely to peak at
higher latitudes
At least 300,000 die each 40—60 million more exposed 1—3 million more
year from climate-related to malaria in Africa diseases.
Reduction in winter mortality in high latitudes
Increased damage from    Up to 10 million more coastal flooding people exposed to coastal
flooding
potentially people die annually from malnutrition
Up to 170 million more people exposed to coastal flooding
Potential water supply decrease of 30-50% in southern Africa and Mediterranean
Large glaciers in Himalayas possibly disappear, affecting % of China's population
Yields decline by 15-35% in Increase in ocean acidity Africa. Some entire regions possibly reduces fish stocks out of agricultural production
Up to 80 million more        Further disease increase and people exposed to malaria insubstantial burdens on Africa health care services
Up to 300 million more people exposed to coastal flooding
Sea-level rise threatens major cities such as New York, Tokyo, and London
Ecosystems At least 10% of land        15-40% of species
species facing extinction, potentially face extinction Increased wildfire risk
20-50% of species potentially face extinction Possible onset of collapse of Amazon forest
Loss of half of Arctic tundraSignificant
Widespread loss of coral     extinctions across the globe
reefs
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Climate change impacts by region
	People affected each year					
	by 2080s by storm surges			People at risk of wa-		
	with sea-level rise of			ter stress by 2085		
	about 38cm assuming			due to a temperature		Additional num-
	constant protection	Estimated climate		increase of 2-3	Estimates related to	ber of people at
	mechanisms (evolving	refugees due to sea-	Vulnerability to	(depending on	drought and water	risk of hunger by
	protection mechanisms)"	level rise (sir)1'	tropical cyclones'	population level)'*	stress1'	the 2080sf
Africa	Southern	Egypt: 12 million	Southeast	North Africa:	14 African	Total: 23-200
	Mediterranean:	by 2050	Africa: low to	155-599 million	countries currently	
	13 million (6 million)	Nigeria: 6—11 mil-	moderate risk	South and	experience water	
	West Africa: 36 million	lion by 2050		East Africa:	scarcity.	
	(3 Million)			15-529 million	Expected to rise to	
	East Africa: 33 million (5 million)			West Africa: 27-517 million	24 countries by 2030	
Asia	South Asia: 98 million	Bangladesh: 26	Major urban cen-	South Asia:	Millions at risk due	West Asia:
	(55 million)	million by 2050	ters: moderate to	39-812 million	to the glacier melt	5-134 million
	Southeast Asia: 43 mil-	China: 73 million	high risk	West Asia:	in the Himalayas.	Southeast Asia:
	lion (21 million)	India: 20 million by 2050	South Asia: moderate risk Hast Asia: moderate to high risk South East Asia: moderate to high risk	95-492 million Central Asia: 14-228 million East Asia: 41-1577 in worst case scenario	50-60 percent of world population live in the larger Himalaya-Hindu Kush region and could be affected by water stress	2-44 million
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Climate change impacts by region
Latin America
N/A
Small island states
Caribbean: 1,350,000 (560,000)
Indian Ocean: 920 thousand (460,000)
Pacific: 290,000 (160,000)
Venezuela: 56,000 assuming lm sir and no adaptation measures
Uruguay: 13,000 assuming 1 m sir and no adaptation measures 1 million
Central America: low to high risk
Northern Latin America: low risk
Caribbean: low to moderate risk
Indian Ocean: low to moderate risk
Pacific: low to high risk
Central America: 5-246 million
South America: 72-272 million in the worst-case scenario
Caribbean: 0-73 million
Glacier melt in the South American Andes could cause water stress under 37 million people by 2010 and 40 million by 2050
Water availability could become too low during low rainfall seasons
Total:
5-85 million
N/A.
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Sources
• IEA: C02 Emission from Fuel Combustion
• IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basic
• Wagner,   G.;  Weitzman,   M.L.(2015:   Climate   Shock:   The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet
• Figueres, Ch.-Ivanova, H.M.: Climate Change: National Interests or a Global Regime?
• IEA: C02 Emission from Fuel Combustion
• Carbon Brief
• Center for Climate and Energy Solutions
• Harris, J.M.; Roach, B.; Codur, A-M.(2017): The Economics of Global Climate Change. A GDAE module
• Ritchie, H.; Roser, M.: C02 and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Our World in Data
• Biermann, F; Boas, 1.(2010): Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees
• Burrows, K.; Kinney,L.(2015): Exploring the Climage Change, Migration and Conflict Nexus CENTER FOR
• Carbon Pricing Leadership ENERGY STUDIES