Global Climate Change Introduction and Implications http://www.climateark.org/vital/graphics/large/3.jpg Energy Balance Input Output Earth Atmosphere system Energy Balance Solar energy Infrared radiation Earth Atmosphere system Energy In > Energy out Not because Ein is ↑, but because Eout is ↓ More energy in the system leads to warming Atmosphere is thin layer encircling the earth – Troposphere ~10Km Three Climate Basics 1)Earth and Sun are at different temperatures, therefore radiate energy at different wavelengths •Earth – long-wave – infrared radiation •Sun – short-wave – visible light radiation 2)Certain gases (GHG) in the atmosphere respond to energy at different wavelengths (passing short, absorbing long) 3)The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing 1) Earth and sun radiate energy at different wavelengths G:\radiation absorption.bmp 2) Certain gases in the atmosphere respond to energy at different wavelengths Methane Nitrous oxide Ozone Carbon dioxide Water vapor http://calspace.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/images/raw/GE_Fig2_2_2.jpg Carbon Dioxide Demonstration Carbon Dioxide increases measured in Mauna Loa, Hawaii 3) The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing Výsledek obrázku pro mauna loa co2 Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride didn’t exist pre-industrial Four main anthropogenic GHGs: 1) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) – 76% 2) Methane (CH4) – 16% 3) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) – 6% 4) F-gases – 2% Correlation between CO2 concentration, temp, and sea level over the past 400,000 years CO2 is now higher than at any time during that period Související obrázek These facts together lead to the climate change observed Figure SPM.1b Observed change in surface temperature 1901-2012 All Figures © IPCC 2013 Figure SPM.1, Panel b Complete caption of Figure SPM.1: Figure SPM.1 | (a) Observed global mean combined land and ocean surface temperature anomalies, from 1850 to 2012 from three data sets. Top panel: annual mean values. Bottom panel: decadal mean values including the estimate of uncertainty for one dataset (black). Anomalies are relative to the mean of 1961−1990. (b) Map of the observed surface temperature change from 1901 to 2012 derived from temperature trends determined by linear regression from one dataset (orange line in panel a). Trends have been calculated where data availability permits a robust estimate (i.e., only for grid boxes with greater than 70% complete records and more than 20% data availability in the first and last 10% of the time period). Other areas are white. Grid boxes where the trend is significant at the 10% level are indicated by a + sign. For a listing of the datasets and further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figures 2.19–2.21; Figure TS.2} Extreme heat events are becoming more common > Heat capacity of water is higher than that for air so most of the additional energy is going to heat the oceans (>90%) https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/40/video-oceans-of-climate-change/ Is this human (anthropogenic) or natural? http://www.climateark.org/vital/graphics/large/12.jpg World Primary Energy Supply by Source, 1850-2000 Výsledek obrázku pro global ghg flow chart Výsledek obrázku pro global ghg flow chart Which country emits the most CO2 in 2017? Figure SPM.6 Comparison of observed and simulated climate change All Figures © IPCC 2013 Computer models match observed ∆T on all continents Figure SPM.6 | Comparison of observed and simulated climate change based on three large-scale indicators in the atmosphere, the cryosphere and the ocean: change in continental land surface air temperatures (yellow panels), Arctic and Antarctic September sea ice extent (white panels), and upper ocean heat content in the major ocean basins (blue panels). Global average changes are also given. Anomalies are given relative to 1880–1919 for surface temperatures, 1960–1980 for ocean heat content and 1979–1999 for sea ice. All time-series are decadal averages, plotted at the centre of the decade. For temperature panels, observations are dashed lines if the spatial coverage of areas being examined is below 50%. For ocean heat content and sea ice panels the solid line is where the coverage of data is good and higher in quality, and the dashed line is where the data coverage is only adequate, and thus, uncertainty is larger. Model results shown are Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble ranges, with shaded bands indicating the 5 to 95% confidence intervals. For further technical details, including region definitions see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure 10.21; Figure TS.12} WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? 19.jpg - 54889 Bytes Temperature Changes and Plants From: Feeling Warmth, Subtropical Plants Move North Source: New York Times, May 3, 2007 Výsledek obrázku pro climate change impacts on czech republic Impact of 2018 heat wave on vegetation 27.jpg - 39719 Bytes Climate change impacts in Europe Climate change impacts on Europe World map showing areas of wheat yield loss or gain projections for 2050 Projected wheat yield to 2050 35.jpg - 50092 Bytes Výsledek obrázku pro climate change impacts on czech republic 33b.jpg - 135763 Bytes Související obrázek Male, Maldives Photograph by Peter Essick, Aurora Photos The island of Male, capital of the Maldives Islands in the Indian Ocean, is at ground zero in Earth's sea level rise dilemma. With a maximum elevation of only 8 feet (2.4 meters), even a modest increase in ocean heights would submerge a majority of its territory. To combat the threat, the government erected a seawall around the entire island. Two major glaciers in the world: Greenland Antarctica Mt. Kilimanjaro glacier http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/09/0923_030923_kilimanjaroglaciers.html The snows of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania Pasterze Pasterze The Pasterze, Austria'a longest glacier, was much longer in the 19th C. but is now completetely out of sight from this overlook on the Grossglockner High Road. DCP_1527 DCP_1552 DCP_1553 DCP_1536 DCP_1539 DCP_1541 DCP_1543 DCP_1550 2003 2014 DCP_1548 DCP_1549 C:\bfath\Pictures\2008\08-02-01 Wien B-day\IMG_0188.JPG C:\bfath\Pictures\2008\08-02-01 Wien B-day\IMG_0189.JPG C:\bfath\Pictures\2008\08-02-01 Wien B-day\IMG_0186.JPG C:\bfath\Pictures\2008\08-02-01 Wien B-day\IMG_0187.JPG C:\bfath\Pictures\2008\08-02-01 Wien B-day\IMG_0190.JPG C:\bfath\Pictures\2008\08-02-01 Wien B-day\IMG_0191.JPG C:\bfath\courses\biol105\other material\photos\Portage1914.jpg C:\bfath\courses\biol105\other material\photos\PortageReshoot.jpg http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/glaciers.html Portage Glacier, near Anchorage, Alaska, in about 1914 and in 2004. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMwneiXMzo0 https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resource_center/earthminute Videos! IPCC (2001) scenarios to 2100 1000 years of Earth temperature history…and 100 years of projection Time lag for re-equilibrium of elevated CO2 Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal. ~3°C Based on Figure 6.7 AR5 WGIII SPM Figure SPM.10 Temperature increase and cumulative carbon emissions All Figures © IPCC 2013 Figure SPM.10 | Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some decadal means are labeled for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2040−2049). Model results over the historical period (1860 to 2010) are indicated in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% yr–1 CO2 simulations), is given by the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 forcings. Temperature values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period, emissions relative to 1870. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figure 12.45; TS TFE.8, Figure 1} Figure SPM.8a,b Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results All Figures © IPCC 2013 Figure SPM.8, Panels a and b Complete caption of Figure SPM.8: Figure SPM.8 | Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2081–2100 of (a) annual mean surface temperature change, (b) average percent change in annual mean precipitation, (c) Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent, and (d) change in ocean surface pH. Changes in panels (a), (b) and (d) are shown relative to 1986–2005. The number of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated in the upper right corner of each panel. For panels (a) and (b), hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean is small compared to natural internal variability (i.e., less than one standard deviation of natural internal variability in 20-year means). Stippling indicates regions where the multi-model mean is large compared to natural internal variability (i.e., greater than two standard deviations of natural internal variability in 20-year means) and where at least 90% of models agree on the sign of change (see Box 12.1). In panel (c), the lines are the modelled means for 1986−2005; the filled areas are for the end of the century. The CMIP5 multi-model mean is given in white colour, the projected mean sea ice extent of a subset of models (number of models given in brackets) that most closely reproduce the climatological mean state and 1979 to 2012 trend of the Arctic sea ice extent is given in light blue colour. For further technical details see the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figures 6.28, 12.11, 12.22, and 12.29; Figures TS.15, TS.16, TS.17, and TS.20} Výsledek obrázku pro climate change impacts on wine production europe } } Figure 8. Brno in-city comparison of potential climate change impacts of heatwaves for the baseline (2015) and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2030). Brno in-city comparison of potential climate change impacts of heatwaves for the baseline (2015) and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2030). Participatory Climate Change Impact Assessment in Three Czech Cities: The Case of Heatwaves 2018. Lorencová, et al. WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT? Scientific, policy and people response The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Scientists sound the alarm •It fell to scientists to draw international attention to the threats posed by global warming. Evidence in the 1960s and '70s that concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were increasing first led climatologists and others to press for action. It took years before the international community responded. • •1988, IPCC was formed (World Meteorological Organization and the UN Environment Programme). •first report in 1990 reflecting views of 400 scientists stating that global warming was real and urged that something be done about it. IPCC Assessment Reports since 1990: WGI Contribution C:\Users\stocker\Documents\stocker\ipcc\AR Covers\Cover_ClimateChange1990.jpg C:\Users\stocker\Documents\stocker\ipcc\AR Covers\Cover_ClimateChange1995.jpg C:\Users\stocker\Documents\stocker\ipcc\AR Covers\Cover_ClimateChange2001.jpg C:\Users\stocker\Documents\stocker\ipcc\AR Covers\Cover_ClimateChange2007.jpg 1990 1995 2001 2007 2013 All IPCC Assessment Reports are available at www.ipcc.ch IPCC •The Panel's findings spurred governments to create the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It was ready for signature at the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development -- the "Earth Summit" -- in Rio de Janeiro. •The IPCC's findings, because they reflect global scientific consensus and are apolitical, form a counterbalance to the highly charged political debate over what to do about climate change. IPCC reports played a major role in the negotiations leading to the Kyoto Protocol, in 1997 a second, more far-reaching international treaty on climate change. Kyoto Protocol had 192 countries – entered into force 16 February 2005 and ended in 2012 got the world’s attention but largely failed to make change set legally binding targets and timetables for cutting GHG emissions – industrialized countries agreed to reduce GHG emissions by 5.2% compared to 1990 by 2012 Politics of climate change – who’s responsible? Politics of climate change – who’s responsible? Estimates there are $27 Trillion of proved fossil fuel reserves, yet to keep climate change below 2C, 80% of that must stay in the ground: stranded assets 00 Mitigation Measures More efficient use of energy Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy • Many of these technologies exist today Improved carbon sinks • Reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC Logo.jpg slide_syr_image.psd IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report The Choices We Make Will Create Different Outcomes With substantial mitigation Without additional mitigation AR5 WGI SPM United Nations Climate Change Conference was in Paris, Nov 30 to Dec 11, 2015. Bottom-up approach based on “intended nationally determined contributions" (INDCs) 195 have signed and 169 Parties have ratified of 196 Parties to the Convention On 5 October 2016, the threshold for entry into force of the Paris Agreement was achieved. The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016. In June 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw the US. Under the agreement, the earliest effective date of withdrawal for the U.S. is November 2020. Local efforts at Global Climate Change https://brnodaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/fridays-for-future-featured.jpg March 15, 2019 – student protest May 12, 2019 – family protest Discussion questions }How to convince the world that action is needed? }How to align international support for developing countries? } }What are the synergies between climate change mitigation and energy and agricultural crises? }What are bottlenecks to implementation? } }How have local people responded to climate change? }Adaptation }Mitigation } } Homework #3 }What are some things that Brno has done to address Climate Change? }What else do you recommend? }What can you personally do to affect climate change? THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION DCP_1514.JPG