Biophysical Limits to Growth Brian D. Fath Professor, Biology Dept, Towson University, USA Senior Research Scholar, IIASA, Austria Editor-in-Chief, Ecological Modelling Editor-in-Chief, Current Research in Environmental Sustainability Biophysical Limits to Growth Brian D. Fath Professor, Biology Dept, Towson University, USA Senior Research Scholar, IIASA, Austria Editor-in-Chief, Ecological Modelling Editor-in-Chief, Current Research in Environmental Sustainability We witness unsustainable human-ecosystem interactions nHow could people make such serious mistakes in the past and why does society continue to repeat such mistakes today? nIs it inevitable that the environment must be degraded to satisfy human needs? Drivers of Unsustainability nHUMAN POPULATION INCREASE ØAgriculture ØShelter ØMobility ØStuff Use Energy and Material Resources causes ØLand use change ØHabitat loss ØDeforestation ØAlter biogeochemical cycles Climate Change Eutrophication Acid precipitation Ozone Depletion Smog … Leads to Environmental (and Social) problems are symptoms of deeper failures Sea level rise Soil erosion Water pollution Toxins and waste Economics nEconomics is one the main organizing forces in society n nMany decisions are made based on cost-benefit analysis but true costs (direct + indirect) to individual, society, or environment are often not known Economic Growth Models WHERE IS ENVIRONMENT? http://www.polyp.org.uk/cartoons/consumerism/polyp_cartoon_Still_Not_Happy.jpg http://environment.research.yale.edu/documents/images/0-9/08Spr-happiness-chart03.jpg What is the purpose of growth? Alternative well-being indicators tell a different story Does bigger always mean better? http://www.polyp.org.uk/cartoons/consumerism/polyp_cartoon_enough.jpg Humans are social animals, measuring in terms of others, not absolutes www.nytimes.com/2016/08/07/upshot/were-in-a-low-growth-world-how-did-we-get-here.html?hp&action=cli ck&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top- news&_r=0 It increasingly looks as if something fundamental is broken in the global growth machine — and that the usual menu of policies, like interest rate cuts and modest fiscal stimulus, aren’t up to the task of fixing it (though some well-devised policies could help). Assumption error: Economy as an isolated system A better model: Economy as an open system A look back at the history recognizing limits Thomas Malthus nPredicts eventually food and resources will run out as populations explode n A person posing for the camera Description automatically generated 1798 George Perkins Marsh n“A certain measure of transformation of terrestrial surface, of suppression of natural, and stimulation of artificially modified productivity becomes necessary. This measure man has unfortunately exceeded.” n n n“The ravages committed by man subvert the relations and destroy the balance which nature has established…; and she avenges herself upon the intruder by letting loose her destructive energies…” Image, Source: from print from LC-BH8201-4981 http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0295983167.01._AA240_SCLZZZZZZZ_.jpg 1864 Aldo Leopold nA Sand County Almanac – regarded as the most influential book on conservation ever written. n nThe land ethic: n"A thing is right when it tends to preserve the integrity, stability, and beauty of the biotic community. It is wrong when it tends otherwise." n nEnlarges the boundaries of the community to include soils, waters, plants, and animals, or collectively: the land. n http://www.historycooperative.org/journals/ht/37.1/images/frese_fig02b.jpg 1949 Donella Meadows and Club of Rome http://www.clubofrome.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/ov-simmons1.jpg 1972 Forrester-Meadows world model (a) A standard computer simulation based on 1970 values. (After Meadows, 1971) (b) Pollution-induced collapse even when known natural resource reserves are 2x. (c) Collapse due to population growth even though resources are set as unlimited and pollution controls are assumed. (d) Stabilized model producing a sustainable future. Assumptions: birth rate= death rate, capital investment= capital depreciation, and technological policies are implemented, e.g., resource recycling, pollution control, and restoration of eroded and infertile soils. http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/science/cool-space-picture-5.jpg Planetary Boundaries – Stockholm Resilience Centre n Donut Economics – Kate Raworth Overshooting the limits n“Natural principles of chemistry, mechanics and biology are not merely limits. They’re invitations to work along with them.” n Limits to Growth 2000 Jane Jacobs n“There are limits. Let’s celebrate the limits, because we can reinvent a different future.” Sunita Narain This Changes Everything 2015 clubofsiena.eco-soft.dk 2015 Ecosystems do quite well under constraints, let’s learn from them nMaterial constraints 1)Ecosystems conserve matter and energy – 1st law 2)All processes are dissipative – 2nd law 3)All life uses largely the same biochemical constituents and processes nOntological properties 4)An ecosystem uses surplus energy to move further away from thermodynamic equilibrium (physically driven biological aspect) – centripetality 5)Ecosystems co-evolve and adapt to prevailing conditions (biologically driven biological aspect) nPhenomenological properties 6)Ecosystems have diversity of structure and function 7)Ecosystems work together in networks that improve the resource flow utilization 8)Ecosystems are emergent hierarchically 9)Ecosystems have an enormous amount of genetic, biochemical, and process information 9 properties of ecosystems Ecosystem growth and development follows a logistic curve from early to late successional stages C:\bfath\Research\Misc\salzau\untitled.jpg Early stage Late stage Bioenergetic model of succession In early stages of succession, P>R and excess is channeled into growth and accumulation of biomass. Increase capacity and complexity of the energy storage compartments (total biomass of all species and trophic levels) as well as the complexity of energy transfer pathways. In late stages of succession, P=R as maintenance costs increase respiration Negative feedback maintains steady state, with little or no change in biomass (network, feedback, cycling). Four types of Ecosystem Growth and Development 0. Boundary Growth: How much energy enters the system. I. Structural Growth: Increase in biomass quantity in the number & size of components in the ecosystem. II. Network Development: Change in system connectivity, which results in more cycling. III. Information Development: Qualitative change in system behavior to more energetically efficient ones. Fath BD, Jørgensen SE, Patten BC, Straškraba M. 2004. Biosystems 77, 213–228. Growth à Quantitative increase Development à Qualitative increase "We must realize that growth and development are two very different things. You can develop without growing and vice versa.“ Tibor Vasko, 2009, www.solon-line.de/interview-with-tibor-vasko.html Alternative Economic Systems… Herman Daly nBeyond Growth: the economics of sustainable development ¨The first and second laws of thermodynamics must be the starting point of economics ¨Neither the sources of useful inputs nor the sinks for polluting waste outputs are infinite. 1996 Nicolas Georgescu-Roegen nThe Entropy Laws and the Economic Process (1971) ¨Wealth is an open system, a structure maintained in the midst of throughput ¨It begins with the depletion of useful matter/energy and ends with the return of an equal quantity of spent matter/energy back to the environment. Regenerative economy Input, Output, and System Dynamics 1. 2. 4. 3. Fath et al. 2019. Global Transitions. 1, 15–27. John Stuart Mill nBritish philosopher, political economist and civil servant (1806-1873) nConsidered “the most influential English-speaking philosopher of the nineteenth century" n n“Perpetual growth in material well-being is not possible or desirable.” Mill argued that the logical conclusion of unlimited growth was destruction of the environment and a reduced quality of life. He concluded that a stationary state could be preferable to unending economic growth WHY HAVE WE NOT LEARNED THIS LESSON? 1848 How we measure progress matters Image result for gpi vs gnp GPI accounts for 26 indicators including economic, environmental, and social factors to determine if we are well off. GDP measures the circulation of money Maryland was first state to adopt GPI as official indicator Maryland’s Genuine Progress Indicator compared with Gross State Product http://www.polyp.org.uk/cartoons/consumerism/polyp_cartoon_Still_Not_Happy.jpg http://environment.research.yale.edu/documents/images/0-9/08Spr-happiness-chart03.jpg Measuring environmental impact nI=PAT nImpact = Population * Affluence * Technology n nAffluence ~ consumption per person nTechnology ~ impact per consumption Ecological Footprint nthe impact of human activities measured in terms of the area of biologically productive land and water required to produce the goods consumed and to assimilate the wastes generated. n 1)Transportation, 2)Diet, 3)Household/lifestyle choices Ecological Footprint Calculator nhttps://www.footprintcalculator.org/ n [USEMAP] world-average ecological footprint in 2012 was 2.84 global hectares per person. world-average biocapacity of 1.73 global hectares per person Overshoot! Discussion questions nShould biophysical limits be considered in economics? ¨How? nIs it mostly a matter of getting the prices right – internalize extranalities? nHow to differentiate between productive work and exploitative work? nHow to move away from growth as a goal function? nGive an example of increased efficiency leading to increased consumption. How can we account for this in reducing environmental impacts? n n Decoupling –greater resource efficiency n Do more with less degrowth nReduce scale to fit within planetary boundaries Do less Thank you for your attention! 2019