Low carbon transportation
Filip Černoch
cernoch@mail.muni.cz
Transport and decarbonization
Data for 2014
Available (climate related) improvements
• Reduction of travel distances (urban planning).
• Increase of share of public transportation.
• Shift of road freight activity to rail and shipping.
• Development of energy efficiency of vehicles.
• Change in public preferences.
• Promoting the use of low-carbon fuels.
EV deployment in 2018
• Continues to growth rapidly – in 2018 5.1 million cars, up 2 million from 2017.
• China the largest market (almost half of the global EV stock), followed by Europe
and the U.S. Norway leader in terms of EV market share (46%).
• More than 3 million two-wheelers on roads in 2018, 460 000 buses, 250 000 light
commercial vehicles. Lows-speed EV (LSEVs) about 5 million units. Medium trucks
sales in thousands.
• 5.2 million EV chargers – most are domestic slow chargers + about 540 000 publicly
accesible chargers.
• EV consumed about 58 TWh of electricity (mostly two-wheelers in China), saving 36
Mt CO2e.
• Global spending on EV purchases grew to $82bn in 2018, up 70% on the previous
year, and government support makes up 18% of that spend.
Global EV sales and market share, 2013 - 2018
Outook for the 2018 – 2030 period
• New policies scenario (NPS) – works with policies and measures already put in place,
plus policies that are in official targets and plans, plus announcements of OEMs
producers.
• EV stock (but two-wheelers) over 55 million EV in 2025 (9% of vehicle sales),
135 in 2030 (15% of sales).
• EV30@30 scenario – in line with Electric Vehicle Iniciative aims at 30% market
share for EVs (but two-wheelers) in 2030.
• EV stock (but two-wheelers) over 250 million in 2030.
Outook for the 2018 – 2030 period – EV sales
Complexity of the transition
More electricity,
less oil
ICE replaced by
PV, some
chargers and
money needed
Less GHG, less
pollution, less
dependency
Complexity of the transition
Material inputs
Industry
Transportation
Electricity
sector
transformation
Dealing with
waste
Re-routing of
the money
flows
Governmental
policies
Material inputs
• Oil replaced by a) electricity, b) scarce materials for bateries, c) materials for grid
development.
• Underdeveloped and volatile production capacities – demand and supply fluctuations,
sudden disruptions, stockpiling.
• Geopolitical considerations.
• Social issues.
• Environmental concerns (mined in countries with low/non-existing standards).
Lithium Cobalt Nickel Copper
Supply and
capacity rampup
challenges
Large
geological
availability.
Current
overcapacity.
Up to 10 years
lead time to
production.
Current production
surplus. Up to 10 years
lead time to production.
Market highly dependent
on by-product extraction
Geologically
abundant, but variety
of end-product
grades. Challenges in
ramping up capacity
for the production of
EV battery-suitable
grade
Large resources,
with long time
needed to convert
resources into
reserves (17 years
on average).
Social
challenges
In lithium
Triangle:
water-related
conflicts, local
(indigenous)
community’s
under-
benefitting
from the
activity,
corruption.
20% of mining in
DRC is artisanal,
which is associated
with health and
safety concerns for
miners, plus child
labor. Cases of
corruption in both
artisanal and largescale
mining.
Conflicts with
local (indigenous)
communities due
to environmental
issues.
Same social
problems as for
cobalt in the DRC
and some local
communities
oppose new
mining activities
(water shortage
concerns) (Peru,
Chile).
The role of industry
• Driving the development,
resulting in lower prices,
higher quality of PV vs.
scepticism and reluctance to
change.
• Standard medium size EV
app. 40% more expensive
than similar ICE car. Might
be competitive in the mid
2020s?
Lithium-ion battery price index
• Prices dropped by 79% between 2010 – 2016.
Societal lock-in
• Customers are not fully rational, cost and time-driven actors.
• (Unrealistic) expectation that automobile culture will be replaced by any means to get
somewhere at an affordable costs.
• However, cars are also means of indentification, conspicuous consumption, abodes
of privacy and solitude (cocooning and fortressing) and ritual, instruments of
aggression and skil, ceremonial initiations into adulthood, potential hobbies.
• Cars provide status and emotional affect through their speed, security, safety, link to
sexuality, career achievement, facilitation of freedom.
= Not only what you need, but what you yearn for.
Societal lock-in
• In 2018 EV stock emitted about 38 Mt CO2e, saving about 40 MtCO2e. (30 Mt in
China only).
• Source of electricity?
Societal lock-in
• Long tailpipe emissions (the whole lifecycle – 270 000km for all of them)
• Tesla Model S P100D saloon – 226g/CO2/km (US midwest).
• 7-series BMW 750i xDrive – 385g/CO2/km.
• Mitsubishi Mirage – 192g/CO2/km.
• Controversy about proper measurement – MIT and FT.
EV in cities
• 25 world cities accounting for 44% of global EV shales.
• By 2050 nearly 70% of the world´s population concentrated in cities.
Electricity sector challenges
• Increased demand (now equal to the consumption of Switzerland, 68 TWh).
• Different patterns of consumption (overloading the grid).
• (Enforced?) adaptation of charging to the ability of the grid (low-price/demand
periods).
• EVs may provide DSR services to the system across a wide range of time scales and
to participate in electricity markets.
• EV batteries can store energy that may be used for other purposes than powering
the vehicle, thanks to the opportunities offered by vehicle-to-grid or vehicle-to-home.
Impact of EV deployment on global electricity demand,
2°C Scenario
Dealing with waste
• Reusing of materials: using the old batteries as a stationary storage.
• Recycling of materials. 2018 data: 179 000 tons of batteries reaching their end of life,
83% of them for small appliances (cell phones, laptops, power tools). Of the total
volume 97 000 recycled. Primarily in China (67 000 tons) and South Korea (18 000
tons).
Flow of money – global trade/money flows
• Projected EV stock in the New Policies Scenario would cut demand for oil products
by 127 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) (about 2.5 million barrels per day
[mb/d]) in 2030, while with more EVs in the EV30@30 Scenario the reduced oil
demand is estimated at 4.3 mb/d.
• In 2018, about 97 million barrels consumed per day.
= serious effect on stability of the international system.
Oil major trade movements 2016 (million tonnes)
Flow of money – impact on the national level
• China produces about 30% of worldwide vehicle production (larger than the US, EU
and Japan combined).
• In US, automakers and their suppliers responsible for 3% of GDP and one of the
largest sources of manufacturing jobs. Export of more than USD 692 bn in vehicles
and parts.
• EU – 6.1% of total employment (13.3 mil workers), trade surplus of EUR 90.3
billion.
• Japan – 8.7% of workforce.
• South Korea – 7% of GDP.
• Redistribution of opportunities and wealth.
Role of the government
• The uptake of EV driven primarily by the policy environment. Policy
measures makes EV more appealing for customers, while reducing the risk for
investors and manufacturers.
• Public procurement programmes.
• Financial incentives (esp. upfront costs deliver best results) to facilitate the
acquisition of EVs (Norway´s VAT reduction and vehicle registration tax
exemptions…).
• Cutting their usage costs (free parking…).
• Regulatory measures at different administrative levels (fuel economy standards
…).
• ICE vehicle bans.
Future of subsidies?
• Ability to financially support PV?
• Shift from direct subsidies to demands on industry, standards.
Revenue from taxation of new cars based on energy use
per vehicle km and powertrain type, 2017
• Income of the governments - The combination of taxes on transport vehicle and
fuel use was estimated to be as high as 3.5% of GDP by OECD in 2014.
Design selection
• PV most prefered variant.
• However, there is more – hybrids, hydrogen cars, LPG, CNG…
• Warning example of biofuels.
Complexity of the transition
• Feedbacks/visious circle.
• Tipping point? (Multiple designs unlikely).
• Time will be needed.
Sources
• IEA (2019, 2018, 2017): Global EV Outlook 2019, 2018, 2017.
• OECD/IEA (2017): Technology Roadmap: Biofuels for Transport
• Stakhovsky (2017): The Hidden Cost of Electric Cars
• McGee, P.(2017): Electric cars´ green image blackens beneath the bonnet.
• Miotti, M.(2016): Personal Vehicles Evaluated against Climate Change Mitigation
Targets
• Paoli, L.; Bennett, S.(2019): Evs should be getting cheaper. Instead they‘re getting
bigger.
• IEA. (2014) IEA and IPCC: Summary for Policymakers
Local demand profile and electric car charging in the EU
on a typical day, B3DS, 2030.