Problems of Research in Political Science
causality, control of the examined relationship, distortion, experiment
2020

Research of social reality
•Search for recurring schemas, regularity, patterns, logic of system functioning;
•We try to isolate the phenomena and interpret them by observing the variables and the
relationships between them - by inducing causal relations and then generalizing into rules - the
laws;
•Such generalization is a mean for explaining social reality, allowing us to understand the world.

Causality in the social sciences
•Natural vs. social sciences - degree of control of the system.
•
•Social sciences: the inability to isolate the system and the causal relationship; impossibility to
formulate laws, only the probability character of the claim; limited possibility of intervention
and experiment ...
•
•Causality: the causal link between (social) phenomena (dependent and independent variable) – its
finding, exploring and understanding is key to the scientific knowledge of society.
•MacIver: Whatever happens, it has a cause; each cause is a consequence of the preceding cause;
each consequence is the cause of the consequence.
•Pareto: As a result of the research, it is possible to obtain a set of statements that approximate
the extraordinary complexity of the social world.

•
•
•
•Independent variable ---> Dependent variable
cause – transmiting mechanism - consequence

"Science" in the social sciences
•Examples of great concepts - have the character of scientific knowledge:
•Economics: General Theory of Employment (Keynes), Economic and Social Theory of Growth (Kuznets);
•Sociology: Protestant ethics (Weber), Iron laws of the oligarchy (Michels), Social exchange
(Homans, Blau);
•Political Science: Cleavages (Rokkan), Electoral Laws (Duverger, Sartori), Economic Policy Theory
(Downs);
•International Relations: Hegemonic Stability (Kindleberger, Krasner) ...

•  monetary base -> inflation <-> employment, growth
•
•protestantism / catolicism -> economic systém performance
•
•proportional / majoritarian elect. system -> party system (no. of parties) -> gov.stability
•
•multipolar / unipolar (heg.) system -> stability of international economic system

International system (natural system)
contains elements: states (democracy / authoritative);
contains their interactions: government relations (aggressive /cooperative).
Variables
Political regime (authoritative / democratic) - IV (cause)
Behavior in international relations (militarism / cooperation) - DV (consequence)
Democratic peace theory
„Democracies do not wage wars on each other“

Democratic peace
Analysis
•We define the characteristics of democracy, the authoritarian system, the cooperative and
aggressive behavior of the state;
•
•We are looking for occurrence of these features (to know which type it is); we identify
connections between these elements and the consequences of their occurrence ...
•mobilization of nation, internal and external threat, necessity to concentrate power -> provoking
conflicts, predating and confronting, securing resources – autarky...
•plurality, elections, economic and political freedom -> initiative, cooperation, predictability
...
•
•How many and what elements are needed to decide whether it is democracy? (operationalization);
•
•What is the relation between the policies of the state and its internal setting - why is it
related? (link to theory) ...

Exploration
  - Germany and the FRA are after 1945 „cooperative" states, formerly aggressive ....
  - North Korea, the USSR after 1945 use to provoke ....
Generalization
States that are democratic are „cooperative", those that are not often "evil".
Theory
•The defined change in the internal political system – mobilization, threat, concentration of power
vs. freedom, enterpreneurship, initiative - has a systematic impact on the character of the state's
conduct in international relations (foreign policy).
•Change to democracy leads to strengthening of cooperation (inside and outside) at the expense of
aggression in FP...

Based on the theory, we make the statement (hypothesis):
- Democratic internal organization of the country corresponds to cooperative, non-aggressive
foreign policy.
•
Formulation of general rule (causality): Democratic organization is the cause of non-aggressive/
cooperative behavior of the state in FP.
Confrontation with empirical reality:
-Germany in 2019 has invaded France .... both are democratic states ...!
-... the hypothesis is not kept -> the theory is unable to explain the concrete actions of the
state ...

The Most Unhealthy Countries in the World
(problem of validity)
1. Alcohol consumption per person, per year;
2. Tobacco consumption per person, per year;
3. Obesity prevalence within the population.




DV
CASE
IV?
IV?
1
Honduras
C
L
2
Venezuela
C
L
3
Belize
C
L
8
Lesotho
C
L
11
RSA
C
M
12
Colombia
C
L
14
Kongo DR
C
L
18
Brazil
C
M
19
Rwanda
C
L
22
Mexico
C
M
27
Nigeria
C, I
L
33
Myanmar
B
L
35
South Sudan
A, C, I
L
36
Ivory Coast
I, C, A
L
39
Turkmenistán
I
M
47
Etiopie
C, I
L
DV
CASE
IV?
IV?
48
Sudan
I
L
66
Russia
C
M
68
Kyrgyzstan
I
M
70
Philippines
C
L
77
Somalia
I
L
79
Iraq
I
L
82
Kazakhstan
I, C
M
84
Pakistan
I
L
86
Mali
I
L
89
Palestine
I
L
91
Eritrea
C, I
L
92
Lithuania
C
M
95
Afghanistan
I
L
108
Albania
I, C
L
111
USA
C
H
121
Iran
I
M
125
Kosovo
I
N

DV
CASE
IV?
IV?
128
India
H, I, C
L
129
Egypt
I
L
138
Thai-wan
B, T
H
145
Bangladesh
I
L
147
Turkey
I
M
152
Malaysia
I, B
M
154
Syria
I
M
155
Norway
C
H
159
Jordan
I
L
165
Israel
J
H
166
Libya
I
L
DV
CASE
IV?
IV?
185
Oman
I
H
186
Qatar
I
H
188
China
T
M
191
Czech rep.
C
H
198
S. Arabia
I
H
201
Japan
B
H
203
Algeria
I
L
208
Indonesia
I
L
209
Switzerland
C
H
210
Bahrain
I
H
212
Kuwait
I
H