The origins of sustainable energy policies Filip Černoch cernoch@jTLail.muni.cz Climate change mechanism • Temperature of the planet is rising • 0,8°C in last 130 years, more than half of that in last 35 years. • GHGs concentration is increasing. • CO2 concentration increased by 40% since pre-industrial time, methane by 150%, nitrous oxide by 20%. • This increase is (predominantly) caused by human activity. • There is a relationship between GHGs and energy in the atmosphere (greenhouse gas effect). • Some uncertainty due to the complexity of the issue, positive and negative feedbacks. Possible Effects of Climate Change Eventual Temperature Rise Relative to Pre-Industrial Temperatures Type of Impact 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C Freshwater Supplies Food and Agriculture Human Health Coastal Areas Ecosystems Serious droughts in southern Europe every 10 years. 1—4 billion more Small glaciers in the Potential water supply Andes disappear, decrease of 20-30% in threatening water supplies some regions (Southern for 50 million people Africa and Mediterranean) people suffer water shortages Modest increase in yields Declines in crop yields in 150—550 million more Potential water supply decrease of 30-50% in southern Africa and Mediterranean in temperature regions tropical regions (5-10% in people at risk of hunger. Africa) At least 300,000 die each 40-60 million more year from climate-related exposed to malaria in Africapotentially people die diseases. Reduction in winter mortality in high latitudes Increased damage from Up to 10 million more coastal flooding people exposed to coastal flooding Yields decline by 15-35% in Africa. Some entire regions out of agricultural production Up to 80 million more people exposed to malaria annually from malnutrition in Africa Yields likely to peak at higher latitudes 1—3 million more Up to 170 million more people exposed to coastal flooding Up to 300 million more people exposed to coastal flooding At least 10% of land 15-40% of species species facing extinction, potentially face extinction Increased wildfire risk 20-50% of species Loss of half of Arctic potentially face extinction tundra Widespread loss of Possible onset of collapse coral reefs of Amazon forest Large glaciers in Himalayas possibly disappear, affecting % of China's population Increase in ocean acidity possibly reduces fish stocks Further disease increase and substantial burdens on health care services Sea-level rise threatens major cities such as New York, Tokyo, and London Significant extinctions across the globe Greenhouse gas emissions (C02e) by gas, World Global greenhouse gas emissions by gas source, measured in thousand tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (kt CChe). Gases are converted to their COze values based on their global warming potential factors. HFC, PFC and SF6 are collectively known as 'F-gases'. OurWorld in Data 40 million 30 million 20 million 10 million HFC gases PFC gases — SFe gases — Nitrous oxide (N2O) - Methane (CH4) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 1975 1980 1985 Source: World Bank - World Development Indicators (WDI) 1995 2000 2005 2012 OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA Global carbon dioxide emissions by sector (Gg CO2) Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, measured in gigagrams of CO2 per year. 30 million 25 million 20 million 15 million 10 million 5 million OurWorld in Data Other sources Waste Residential & commercial Industry — Transport Agriculture, Land Use & Forestry — Energy 1995 Source: UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) 2005 2010 OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA Methane emissions by sector (Gg C02e) Breakdown of total global methane (ChU) emissions by sector, measured in gigagrams of carbon-dioxide equivalents (CChe). Carbon dioxide equivalents measures the total greenhouse gas potential of the full combination of gases, weighted by their relative warming impacts. OurWorld in Data 5 million 4 million 3 million 2 million 1 million — Other sources Residential & commercial Industry — Land use — Agriculture — Energy 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 Source: UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA Nitrous oxide emissions by sector (Gg CC^e), World Breakdown of total global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by sector, measured in gigagrams of carbon-dioxide equivalents (COze). Carbon dioxide equivalents measures the total greenhouse gas potential of the full combination of gases, weighted by their relative warming impacts. OurWorld in Data Important Events in International Climate Change Negotiations Year, Location Outcome 1992, Rio de Janeiro 1995, Berlin 1997, Kyoto 2001, Bonn 2009, Copenhagen 2011, Durban UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries agree to reduce emissions with "common but differentiated responsibilities." The first annual Conference of the Parties to the framework, known as a COP. U.S. agrees to exempt developing countries from binding obligations. At the third Conference of the Parties (COP-3) the Kyoto Protocol is approved, mandating developed countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions relative to baseline emissions by 2008-2012 period. (COP-6) reaches agreement on terms for compliance and financing. Bush administration rejects the Kyoto Protocol; U.S.is only an observer at the talks. COP-15 fails to produce a binding post-Kyoto agreement, but declares the importance of limiting warming to under 2°C. Developed countries pledge $100 billion in climate aid to developing countries. (COP-17) participating countries agreed to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change as soon as possible, and no later than 2015, to take effect by 2020. 2015, Paris COP-21 195 nations sign the Paris Agreement, providing for worldwide voluntary actions (INDC's) by individual countries. International (UN) regime to fight climate change • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — 1988. (Last report 10/2018) • Rio Summit on Earth - 1992 (UN conference on environment and development) • UNFCCC (UN Framework convention on Climate Change) -consensus vs. 180 parties. • Existence of a generally accepted consensus on the climate change as well as the contribution of human activities to this change Common but differentiated responsibility • Kyoto Protocol - approved in 1997, in force 2005. Kyoto Protocol • 4 GHG (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) + hydrofluorocarbons and pefluorocarbons. • Annex I. countries (37 industrialized countries + EU15), Non-annex I. parties. • Reducing of GHG emissions by 5,2 % for the first commitment period of 2008-2012. (4,2 % after USA left). Base year 1990. • Reduction of emissions from fossil fuel combustion; reduction emission in other sectors (land-use or direct industrial emissions); flexible mechanisms — Emission trading, CDM, JI. First binding international treaty on climate change mitigation, with enforceable (to some extent) targets and schedule, channeling investments into low-carbon technologies. Cumulative CO2 emissions, 1997 Cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions represents the total sum of CO2 emissions since 1751, and is measured in million tonnes. OurWorld in Data 0 Mt No data _ 5,000 Mt 10,000 Mt 75,000 Mt 20,000 Mt 200,000 Mt Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC) OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA CCh emissions per capita vs GDP per capita (international^), 1997 Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita (tonnes per year) vs GDP per capita (int.-$). The size of the bubbles represent population size. OurWorld in Data o m o O O 10 t Qatar Bahrain Kuwait United States CanaÄ Ur,|ted Arab Emirates ■ Africa ■ Asia Europe ■ North America ■ Oceania South America Kazakhstan •Estonia Russia South AfricaPoland Ukraine Venezuela Oman Slovakia Saudi Arabia South Korea JaPan ja - Greese * Ita" Norway Uzbekistan Malta Spain France Malaysia „ Switzerland • Portugal Azerbaijan ^ Syria Thailand Bosnia and Herzegovina Gabon Mexico . Argentina " Turkey Barbados 1 t India Yemen Moldova Bolivia Kyrgyzstan • Georgia m Brazil Belize • ( Q ^Unjguay Egypt • Indonesia* Zi#b«/e Maldives ,Costa Rlca ^•ilippines Nigeria Pakistan Bhutan Guatemala »Angofe • Cote d'lvoire Liberia 0.1 t Niger Ghana Cape Verde * Kenya Palestine Zambia „ ■ ^Bangladesh Cameroon Myanmar* *Sudan Guinea I • Cambodia Gambia • * * Nepal Albania Sri Lanka Jriozambjque ^ JSurkina Faso ^thiopia ^Jganda Chad $1,000 $10,000 Penn World Table 9.0 (Real GDP at chained PPPs in 2011 US$) Source: Penn World Table 9.0, C02 emissions per capita by nation- CDIAC Note: GDP (intl-$) presented as real GDP (2011) values OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA CO2 emissions per capita, 1997 Average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita measured in tonnes per year OurWorld in Data Ot 201 No data I 101 100 t 50 t 2001 Source: CDIAC C02 emissions per capita (tonnes per year) OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ • CC BY-SA Kyoto Protocol results • In 2012, C02 emissions from fuel combustion across all Parties with KP targets were 14% below 1990 levels. • Emissions in the EU-15 were 8% bellow 1990 levels. • Some industrialised countries have seen significant increases (Australia +48%), New Zealand (+44%), Spain (+30%). • Despite extensive participation of 192 countries the KP is limited in its potential — U.S. remains outside, developing countries do not have emission targets. • The KP implies action on less than one-quarter of global C02 emissions. • However, its flexibility mechanisms the KP has made C02 a tradable commodity, and has been a driver for the development of national emission trading schemes. TjI y ::l ■. ,!ľ::" ::i: ii íLíjL ^ E =■ iTiptc-Ti&TGd or scheduled ľur IľipkíTtcrruilijri ^ E~s ardca1>>^i^irrvfcfn^riQrad>rtJkd jiripltiriLTi^Bd 01 MÍi«dul«d ľur ^ f j rt>j_i i rr^iiľ mofTT«j d r sd-*dLkxJ 1 l r I mp k: Twudon ty Cirbon uk mplcmtrmMl ov sďMdJcd. E~s undr ccradcranon liri^ 1 E~s w ľ^tcn ľ*í ij^ůcr üöj-üöt'JilDn fl/ E~s I ti pttrr*ri: ľ d o.' adricdu kd, utonc^í LrdH-íWKlclĽ'jrlwi GtCO, 36 10 5 - Noo Ptřttcipittg Ann«i i Par *• • • • ■■•IIIMi lit* -r^: iôô3 ISM -řř; 2002 ::cf :::: 2012 Global CO^ emissions by world region, 1751 to 2015 Annual carbon dioxide emissions in billion tonnes (Gt). Our World in Data 1760 1??0 1?30 l79u1900lBlQ 1G2Q lflSO 1640 10501™ 1STQ lflflO 1B8Q 1 900l9lD 1SQQ 1930 lSHU 195Q1JSO IS70 i960 lSeu2000™lO Data aouice: Carbon Blonde infomatKW Analyala Center oCDlACj; aggregation Cv world nogiwi by Our world In Data. I no Interactive dala Yistializallon la avallatHe atOurworldinData.-oig. Tnerayou frnd me raw data and more visualizations on ths tope. uoensod under CC-BY-SA. Post-Kyoto system • Second commitment period of KP for 2013—2020 concluded in 2012 (COP 18 in Doha). Belarus, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, USA and Ukraine missing. Others reduction commitments covering 13% of global GHG emissions at 2010 levels. • To limit global temperature increase to less than 2°C above pre-industrial level, countries are negotiating a new climate agreement (partialy finalised at COP21 in Paris 2015). • It builds on the voluntary emission reduction goals for 2020 that were made at COP 15 in Cobenhagen. • Developed and developing countries with these aims account for over 80% of global emissions, (goals nevertheless not sufficient to fulfill 2°C limit). Annual CO2 emissions per country, 2014 Annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are measured in million tonnes OurWorld in Data 0 2,000 4,000 7,500 12,000 No data I 500 3,000 5,000 10,000 C02 emissions (million tonnes per year) Source: CDIAC OurWorldlnData.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions/ ■ CC BY-SA Note: Data converted from carbon to carbon dioxide using conversion factor of 3.67 Paris agreement (C0P21) • Legally binding treaty with reduction commitments from 187 countries starting in 2020. Again, 55 countries covering 55% of global emissions needed to enter the force. It: • Reaffirmes the goal of limiting global temperature increase below 2 degrees, while urging efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees. • Establishes binding commitments by all parties to make "nationally determined contributions" (NDCs), and to pursue domestic measures aimed at achieving them. • Commites all countries to report regularly on their emissions and "progress made in implementing and achieving" their NDCs, and to undergo international review. • Commites all countries to submit new NDCs every five years, with the clear expectation that they will "represent a progression" beyond previous ones. Paris agreement (C0P21) • Reaffirmes the binding obligations of developed countries under the UNFCCC to support the efforts of developing countries, while for the first time encouraging voluntary contributions by developing countries too. • Extends the current goal of mobilizing $100 billion a year in support by 2020 through 2025, with a new, higher goal to be set for the period after 2025. • Extends a mechanism to address "loss and damage" resulting from climate change, which explicitly will not "involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation". • Requires parties engaging in international emissions trading to avoid "double counting". • Calls for a new mechanism, similar to the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, enabling emission reductions in one country to be counted toward another country's NDC. Paris agreement (C0P21) • Reaffirmes the binding obligations of developed countries under the UNFCCC to support the efforts of developing countries, while for the first time encouraging voluntary contributions by developing countries too. • Extends the current goal of mobilizing $100 billion a year in support by 2020 through 2025, with a new, higher goal to be set for the period after 2025. • Extends a mechanism to address "loss and damage" resulting from climate change, which explicitiy will not "involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation". • Requires parties engaging in international emissions trading to avoid "double counting". • Calls for a new mechanism, similar to the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, enabling emission reductions in one country to be counted toward another country's NDC. C0P21 pledges vs. Ball scenario — 150 Climate change as uniquely global public policy problem • Environmental problems usually regional (Beijing's smog, waste from EU's industry). • Climate change - impacts may be regional, but phenomenon is global. • The global nature of climate change also complicates any sensible climate policy. It is tough to get voters to enact pollution limits on themselves, when those limits benefit them and only them, but it is tougher to get voters to enact pollution limits on themselves if the costs are felt domestically, but the benefits are global = a planetary free riding problem. • Impact of climate change is not evenly distributed among regions and countries. Different vulnerability. Climate change as uniquely long term public policy problem • The past decade was the warmest in human history. The one before was the second-warmest. The one before was the third-warmest. • Changes are evident. Arctic sea ice has lost half of its mass, three-quaters of this volume in only the past thirty years. • But the worst consequences of climate change are still remote, often caged in global, long-term averages. The worst effects are still far off — but avoiding these predictions would entail acting now. Climate change as uniquely irreversible public policy problem • Stopping emitting carbon now we still would have decades of warming and centuries of sea-level rise locked in. Full melting of large West Antarctic ice sheets may be unstoppable. • Over 2/3 of the excess C02 in the atmosphere that wasn't there when humans started burning fossil fuels will still be present a hundred years from now. Over 1/3 will be there in 1000 years. Climate change as uniquely uncertain public policy problem • Last time concentration of carbon dioxide were as high as they are today, at 400 ppm, at Pliocene (3 million years ago). Average temperatures back then were around 1-2,5°C warmer than today, sea levels were up to 20 meters higher, and camels lived in Canada. • We wouldn't expect any of these dramatic changes today. The greenhouse effect needs decades to centuries to come into full force, ice sheets need decades to centuries to melt, global sea levels take decades to centuries to adjust accordingly. C02 concentrations may have been at 400 ppm 3 million years ago, whereas rising sea levels lagged decades or centuries behind. Climate change as uniquely expensive public policy problem • Around current climates masive investments and industrial infrastructures is build, that makes temperature increases costly. • The current models estimates that warming of 1°C will cost 0,5% of global GDP, 2°C around 1% GDP, 4°C around 4% GDP • We could think about damages as a percentage of output in any given year. At a 3 percent annual growth rate, global economic output will increase almost twenty-fold in a hudred years • Or lets assume that damages affect output growth rates faster than output levels. Climate change clearly affects labor productivity, esp. in already hot countries. Then the cumulative effects of damages could be much worse over time. Major cleavages • Should be a global climate agreement legally binding or nor? • Who it should bind? (BASIC - ^development first") • How much aid (if any) to provide to help countries adapt to climate change? • Should compensation be given to developing countries for the damage caused by climate change? (loss and damage'). Primary energy consumption by world region Global energy consumption by region, measured in terawatt-hours (TWh). Note that this data includes only commercially-traded fuels (coal, oil, gas), nuclear and modern renewables used in electricity production. As such, it does not include traditional biomass sources. Our World in Data 140,000 TWh 120,000 TWh 100,000 TWh 80,000 TWh 60,000 TWh 40,000 TWh 20,000 TWh OTWh 1965 1970 Source: BP Statistical Review 2016 Africa Middle East Latin America and the Carribean North America Asia Pacific 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 OurWorldlnData.org/energy-production-and-changing-energy-sources/ • CC BY Energy use vs. GDP per capita, 2015 Annual energy use per capita, measured in kilowatt-hours per person vs. gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, measured as 2011 international^. Our World in Data 5 a. a a. x in □ E1