The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election and the Future of American Politics:
A Continued Revolt of the Moderates?
Putting things into perspective:
New Deal Democratic majority:
The South, traditionally Democratic since the Civil War.
Roman Catholic/ethnics brought into the Democratic party, given their recognition
with the presidential nomination of Al Smith. Mobilized ethnic women.
Economic collapse/Great Depression, 24% unemployment, hence many “poor.”
Coalition maintained by voters coming of age and participating in the
election process. Changing base of American politics brought about by the
end of WWII and the re-integration of military personnel into American society
with generous education benefits under the GI Bill.
Rapid expansion of higher education—population 18-years old and older who are college
graduates: 1960, 15.5%; 1970, 21.6%; 1980, 32.9%; 1990, 42.8%; 2000, 51.4%; 2004,
55.5%.
College enrollments—1940, 1M; 1950, 2M; 1960, 4M; 1970, 8M; 1980, 12M;
1990, 14M; 2000, 15M; 2006, 18M (est.).
Redistribution of income (1968 constant dollars) —
1956 1968 1980
Under $10,000 82.0% 60.0% 39.0%
$15,000 plus 05.0% 15.0% 34.0%
Creation of a “new middle class” based on consumption, a movement from
scarcity to abundance—by the mid-1970s:
Fossil fuel consumption 1 ½ times the rest of American history;
Leisure time multiplied 5 times to $45 billion; in 1992 dollars the expenditures
on recreation in 1980, $159 billion; in 1990, $292 billion;
Expenditure on toys increased 500%;
TV sets, from 1/10th of 1% to 97.1% being watched 30% of one’s waking hours;
by 1990 over 90% were color sets and by 1992, 60%+ were connected to
cable networks.
Demographic groups and the political parties
1. Both political parties contained substantial numbers of “poor” and “well off”
though conventional wisdom....
a) By 1956, Republicans and Democrats competing equally for the votes
of the “Above Average.”
b) By 1964, Republicans and Democrats competing equally for the votes
of the “college educated.”
c) By 1964, Republicans and Democrats competing equally for the votes
of “professionals” by occupation.
2. Suburban movement of the 1950s, of today—
a) Initially projected by writers of the time to benefit Republicans, but...
b) Middle class became the home of the Democrats, the principal
architects of the current economic policies with national government
regulation; the “new middle class” grew up with the regulated economy
and were the principal beneficiaries of it, hence....
3. New Deal conflict was one between Catholics and Protestants, but, today....
a) Catholics moved up the economic ladder, became part of the “new
middle class.”
b) Political attachments of Catholics were holding, but....
 Generally, 60% of the Catholics considered themselves Democrats
since the New Deal, but that attachment dropped to 51% in 1968
and further to 47% in 1972, the subsequent gains being among the
category “independent” though there was a bounce back to 53% in
1976!
 In terms of votes, though, Catholics began to desert Democratic
presidential candidates in 1952 (51% R) ... 1956 and 1972 (56%
R).
4. Partisan conflict shifted from religion to race—blacks v. whites—with the
nationalization of the race issue WITHIN the Democratic Party, especially by the
mid-1960s with the Civil Rights Acts and Voting Rights Act of 1965.
Focus on the South:
Civil War + Agricultural Economic Base = Democratic TRADITION, but...
— Civil War relegated to the dust bin of history; a new Republican respectability
emerged with the 1964 Goldwater presidential campaign.
— Region moved from agriculture to INDUSTRY, from rural farm to
METROPOLITAN, hence....
— abandonment of the central cities by the more affluent, both white AND black.
— Only an ever weakening TRADITION helps maintain a strong STATE
Democratic party/elected officials
SOUTH (partisan identification)
‘37 ‘40 ‘44 ‘48 ‘52 ‘56 ‘60 ‘64 ‘68 ‘72 ‘76 ‘80
Dem 76 76 71 74 69 59 55 56 43 44 57 41
Rep 16 15 21 16 17 26 27 22 22 23 16 24
ind 08 08 08 10 14 15 18 23 35 33 28 35
— Analogy of partisanship to religion!
— Impact of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, with respect to voter registration in
the 11 states of the South; focus on blacks, but, in reality, 5 whites were registered
for every 1 black, beginning in 1966!
— With respect to the Electoral College, the South steadily has increased its
proportion from 31% in the 1960s, to 32% in the 1970s, to 37% in the 1980s, to
39% in the 1990s, to 41% of the necessary (270 votes to win) in the 2000s as
shown in Table 1 below. It is now the STRONGEST region for the Republican
Party in presidential politics.
— The South has moved from the strongest region of support for the Democratic
party and its candidates to the STRONGEST REGION OF SUPPORT FOR THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY AND ITS CANDIDATES while the Northeast has
moved to the STRONGEST REGION OF SUPPORT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC
PARTY AND ITS CANDIDATES.
5. Race AND religion. While race remains a source of political conflict, religion
re-emerged as a source of political conflict in late-1980s/early-1990s, but now it
is among Protestants, Mainline versus Fundamentalist, the latter being the most
loyal supporters of the Republican Party and its candidates.
6. CONCLUSION: The future of American Politics.
Cycles of political control — “critical” elections theory TIED TO ECONOMICS
Table 1. Shift in Partisan Control, Major Political Offices, 1994 and 1995/6
1994 1995/6
Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other
President/1992 and 1996
% of vote 43.0 37.4 18.9 49.2 40.7 8.4
Electoral College 370 168 0 379 159 0
Congress
House
% of vote* 50.9 45.5 3.6 45.4 52.4 2.2
Number of seats 258 176 1 197 236 1
Senate
Number of seats 57 43 0 46 53 0
Governors 30 18 2 18 31 1
State Legislatures
Lower House
Number of seats 3186 2223 0 2817 2603 0
% of seats 58.9 41.1 51.9 48.1
Upper House
Number of seats 1132 799 0 1021 905 0
% of seats 58.6 41.4 53.0 47.0
*Number of votes cast in 1992 was 96,239,000 and 1994 was 69,770,000.
Source: Calculated from statistics presented in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical
Abstract of the United States, 1996 (Washington, DC: Government Printing
Office, 1996), pp. 270-280.
Table 2. Shift in Partisan Control, Major Political Offices, 2004/6 and 2007/8
2004/6 2007/8
Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other
President/2004 and 2008
% of vote 48.3 50.7 1.0 52.6 46.1 1.3
Electoral College 251 286 0 364 174 0
Congress
House
% of vote** 46.6 49.2 4.2 52.2 44.3 3.5
Number of seats 202 232 0 233 202 0
Senate
Number of seats 45 55 0 51* 49 0
Governors 22 28 0 28 22 0
State Legislatures
Lower House
Number of seats 2702 2675 34 2971 2422 18
% of seats 49.9 49.4 0.6 54.9 44.8 0.3
Upper House
Number of seats 952 964 6 1010 909 3
% of seats 49.5 50.1 0.3 52.5 47.3 0.2
______________________________________________________________________________
*Includes Independent Lieberman (CT) and Socialist Sanders (VT), both of whom organize
with the Democrats, bringing that total to 51 seats.
**Number of votes cast in 2004 was 113,192,000, and in 2006 it was 80,568,000.
Sources: Calculated from statistics presented in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical
Abstract of the United States, 2008 (Washington, DC: Government Printing
Office, 2008), pp. 245, 249, 250, 252, and 253.
Table 3. National Exit Poll (in percentages), 2006
______________________________________________________________________________
Voters Demographic Characteristic Democrats Republicans
100% All Voters 54% 46%
52 Women 56 44
48 Men 52 48
79 White 48 52
10 Black 89 11
08 Hispanic 70 30
02 Asian 62 38
12 Age 18 to 29 61 39
24 Age 30 to 44 54 46
34 Age 45 to 59 54 46
29 Age 60 and older 52 48
03 Did not complete high school 64 36
21 High school graduate 56 44
31 Some college education 52 48
27 College graduate 50 50
18 Postgraduate education 59 41
55 All Protestants 45 55
43 White Protestants 38 62
26 All Catholics 56 44
19 White Catholics 51 49
02 Jewish 88 12
24 White evangelical, born-again Christian 29 71
07 Family income under $15,000 69 31
12 $15,000 to 29,999 63 37
21 $30,000 to 49,999 57 43
22 $50,000 to 74,999 51 49
16 $75,000 to 99,999 52 48
23 $100,000 and over 48 52
36 Republican 08 92
25 Independent 59 41
39 Democrat 93 07
22 East 64 36
27 Midwest 53 47
30 South 46 54
21 West 56 44
20 Liberal 87 11
47 Moderate 60 38
32 Conservative 20 78
____________________________________________________________________________________________
Table 4. Political Party Regional Strongholds with States Won by Senators Barack Obama
and Hillary Rodham Clinton and State Electoral College Votes, 2008
Democratic Republican
Stronghold Swing States Stronghold
Northeast EC Midwest EC South EC
Connecticut 7 Illinois 21 Alabama 9
Delaware 3 Indiana 11 Arkansas 6
Maine 4 Iowa 7 Florida** 27
Maryland 10 Kentucky 8 Georgia 15
Massachusetts 12 Michigan** 17 Louisiana 9
New Hampshire 4 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6
New Jersey 15 Missouri* 11 North Carolina 15
New York 31 Ohio 20 South Carolina 8
Pennsylvania 21 West Virginia 5 Tennessee 11
Rhode Island 4 Wisconsin 10 Texas 34
Vermont 3 120 Virginia 13
Washington, DC 3 153
117 Mountains/
Pacific Coast Plains
Alaska 3 Arizona 10
California 55 Colorado 9
Hawaii 4 Idaho 4
Oregon 7 Kansas 6
Washington 11 Montana 3
80 Nebraska 5
Nevada 5
New Mexico 5
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Dakota 3
Utah 5
Wyoming 3
68
Grand Total 197 120 221
EC Deficit (73) (49)
Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Divided America (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007)
Compiled from "Democratic Delegate Counts - Election Guide 2008 - Dem. Delegates,"
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html, accessed June 4,
2008. Italics=won by Obama; Normal=won by Clinton; *tie; **no delegates for violation of
primary scheduling rules; restored to half delegations by the Democratic National Committee,
May 31, 2008.
Table 5. Political Party Regional Strongholds by Electoral College (EC) Vote, 2008
Democratic Republican
Stronghold Swing States Stronghold
Northeast EC Midwest EC South EC
Connecticut 7 Illinois 21 Alabama 9
Delaware 3 Indiana 11 Arkansas 6
Maine 4 Iowa 7 Florida 27
Maryland 10 Kentucky 8 Georgia 15
Massachusetts 12 Michigan 17 Louisiana 9
New Hampshire 4 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6
New Jersey 15 Missouri 11 North Carolina 15
New York 31 Ohio 20 South Carolina 8
Pennsylvania 21 West Virginia 5 Tennessee 11
Rhode Island 4 Wisconsin 10 Texas 34
Vermont 3 120 Virginia 13
Washington, DC 3 153
117 Mountains/
Pacific Coast Plains
Alaska 3 Arizona 10
California 55 Colorado 9
Hawaii 4 Idaho 4
Oregon 7 Kansas 6
Washington 11 Montana 3
80 Nebraska* 5
Nevada 5
New Mexico 5
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Dakota 3
Utah 5
Wyoming 3
68
Obama 194 96 74
McCain 3 24 147
Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Divided America (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007, 2008)
Compiled from “After the Vote: State by State,” The New York Times, Section P, November 8, 2008, pp.
P10-P20; “2008 General Election,” North Carolina State Board of Elections,
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?id=69/results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/7937/13362/en/
summary.html, accessed November 10, 2008; “Statewide Races,” Missouri Secretary of State,
http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb, accessed November 10, 2008. Blue=Obama (365); Red=McCain (173).
*Obama received one (1) Electoral College vote from the Omaha, Nebraska, congressional district.
Table 6. National Exit Poll for President, 2008 (in percentages).
Voters Demographic Characteristic Obama McCain Other/NA
100% All Voters 53% 47% 0%
53 Women 56 43 1
47 Men 49 48 3
74 White 43 55 2
13 Black 95 4 1
9 Hispanic 67 31 2
2 Asian 62 35 3
3 Other 66 31 3
18 Age 18-29 66 32 2
29 Age 30-44 52 46 2
37 Age 45-64 5 49 1
23 Age 60 and older 47 51 2
4 No High School 63 35 2
20 High School Graduate 52 46 2
31 Some College 51 47 2
28 College Graduate 50 48 2
17 Postgraduate 58 40 2
54 All Protestants 45 54 1
42 White Protestants 34 65 1
27 All Catholics 54 45 1
2 Jewish 78 21 1
38 Evangelical, Born Again Christian 41 57 1
39 Democrat 89 10 1
29 Independent 52 44 4
32 Republican 9 90 1
22 Liberal 89 10 1
44 Moderate 60 39 1
34 Conservative 20 78 2
Is This the First Year You Ever Voted?
11 Yes 69 30 1
89 No 50 48 2
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: "Dissecting the Changing Electorate," The New York Times, November 9, 2008, Week in
Review Section, p. 5; For detailed income categories "President - Election Center 2008 - Electiions &
Politics from CNN.com, http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1, accessed
November 8, 2008. N=17,836.
Table 7. Political Party Regional Strongholds by Electoral College (EC) Vote, 2012
Democratic Republican
Stronghold Swing States Stronghold
Northeast EC Midwest EC South EC
Connecticut 7 Illinois 20 Alabama 9
Delaware 3 Indiana 11 Arkansas 6
Maine 4 Iowa** 6 Florida** 29
Maryland 10 Kentucky 8 Georgia 16
Massachusetts 11 Michigan 16 Louisiana 8
New Hampshire** 4 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6
New Jersey 14 Missouri 10 North Carolina** 15
New York 29 Ohio** 18 South Carolina 9
Pennsylvania 20 West Virginia 5 Tennessee 11
Rhode Island 4 Wisconsin** 10 Texas 38
Vermont 3 114 Virginia** 13
Washington, DC 3 160
112 Mountains/
Pacific Coast Plains
Alaska 3 Arizona 11
California 55 Colorado** 9
Hawaii 4 Idaho 4
Oregon 7 Kansas 6
Washington 12 Montana 3
81 Nebraska 5
Nevada** 6
New Mexico 5
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Dakota 3
Utah 6
Wyoming 3
71
Obama 190 80 62
Romney 3 34 169
Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Divided America (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007, 2008)
**“Battleground” states.
Compiled from “How the States Voted,” The New York Times, Section P, November 8, 2012, p. P11; for
the Florida results see Real Clear Politics, “Florida: Romney v. Obama,” accessed November 14, 2012 at
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html.
Obama won Florida with 50.0% of the vote to Romney’s 49.1%. Blue=Obama (332); Red=Romney (206).
Table 8. National Exit Poll for President, 2012 (in percentages).
Voters Demographic Characteristic Obama Romney Other/NA
100% All Voters 51% 48% 1%
53 Women 55 44 1
47 Men 45 52 3
72 White 39 59 2
13 Black 93 06 1
10 Hispanic 71 27 2
3 Asian 73 26 1
2 Other 58 38 4
19 Age 18-29 60 37 3
27 Age 30-44 52 45 3
38 Age 45-64 47 51 2
16 Age 60 and older 44 56 0
03 No High School 64 35 1
21 High School Graduate 51 48 1
29 Some College 49 48 3
29 College Graduate 47 51 2
18 Postgraduate 55 42 3
53 Protestant/Other Christian 45 54 1
25 Catholic 54 45 1
02 Jewish 78 21 1
07 Something Else 74 23 3
12 None 70 26 4
39 White Protestant/Other Christian 30 69 1
26 Evangelical, Born Again Christian 21 78 1
38 Democrat 92 07 1
29 Independent 45 50 5
32 Republican 06 93 1
25 Liberal 86 11 3
41 Moderate 56 41 3
35 Conservative 17 82 1
_______________________________________________________________________________
Source: CBS News, National Exit Poll for President, http://www.cbsnews.com/election-results-
2012/exit.shtml?state=P&jurisdiction=0&party=R&tag=contentBody:exitLink, accessed November
14, 2012. N=26,565
Table 9. Political Party Regional Strongholds by Electoral College (EC) Vote, 2016
Democratic Republican
Stronghold Swing States Stronghold
Northeast EC Midwest EC South EC
Connecticut 7 Illinois 20 Alabama 9
Delaware 3 Indiana 11 Arkansas 6
Maine# 4 Iowa** 6 Florida** 29
Maryland 10 Kentucky 8 Georgia 16
Massachusetts 11 Michigan 16 Louisiana 8
New Hampshire** 4 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6
New Jersey 14 Missouri 10 North Carolina** 15
New York 29 Ohio** 18 South Carolina 9
Pennsylvania 20 West Virginia 5 Tennessee 11
Rhode Island 4 Wisconsin** 10 Texas 38
Vermont 3 114 Virginia** 13
Washington, DC 3 160
112 Mountains/
Pacific Coast Plains
Alaska 3 Arizona 11
California 55 Colorado** 9
Hawaii 4 Idaho 4
Oregon 7 Kansas 6
Washington 12 Montana 3
81 Nebraska 5
Nevada** 6
New Mexico 5
North Dakota 3
Oklahoma 7
South Dakota 3
Utah 6
Wyoming 3
71
Clinton 169 30 33
Trump 24 84 198
Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Divided America (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007, 2008)
**“Battleground” states.
Compiled from “Election 2016,” The New York Times online accessed September 6, 2017, at
https://nytimes.com/elections/results/president?mcubz=0.
#Maine gave 3 Electoral College votes to Clinton and 1 Electoral College vote to Trump. Red=Trump (306);
Blue=Clinton (232).
Table 10. National Exit Poll for President, 2016 (in percentages).
Voters Demographic Characteristic Clinton Trump Other/NA
100% All Voters 51% 48% 1%
53 Women 54 41 4
47 Men 41 52 5
71 White 37 57 5
12 Black 89 08 3
11 Hispanic 66 28 5
04 Asian 65 27 6
03 Other 56 36 2
19 Age 18-29 55 36 8
25 Age 30-44 51 41 7
40 Age 45-64 44 52 3
16 Age 65 and older 45 52 2
18 High School or less 46 51 3
32 Some College 43 51 5
32 College Graduate 49 44 5
18 Postgraduate 58 37 4
52 Protestant/Other Christian 39 56 3
23 Catholic 46 50 3
03 Jewish 71 23 6
08 Something Else 62 29 7
15 None 67 25 7
74 All Others 60 34 5
26 Evangelical, Born Again Christian 16 80 2
36 Democrat 89 08 2
31 Independent 42 46 9
33 Republican 08 88 2
26 Liberal 84 10 5
39 Moderate 52 40 6
35 Conservative 16 81 2
_______________________________________________________________________________
Source: Fox News, [National] Exit Polls, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/exit-polls
accessed September 6, 2017. N=24,537
Table 11. Classification of Presidential Elections
Interval Critical Election
Election Date in years Classification Party in Control
1836 ** Converting Democrat
1864 28 Realigning Republican
1892/96 28(32) Converting Republican
1928/32 36 Realigning Democrat
1960/64 32 Converting Democrat
1994/96 34 (32) Realigning Republican
The Future and 2028
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