Research Basics and Research Design I Methodology of Conflict and Democracy Studies September 20 Aim of this lecture •Introduction to research and methodology • •How to do research? • •What is a good research? • •Basic concepts that you need to know • Order VS Chaos Where to begin? •Identification of the topic? • •Raising questions? • •Formulation of hypotheses? • •Data availability check? • •Calculation of costs? • Výsledek obrázku pro footprints Step by Step •1. Topic and goals (+ reading) •2. Research questions (+ reading) •3. Hypotheses (+ reading) •4. Methods (+ reading) •5. Data collection •6. Data analysis •7. Results Topic and Inspiration •College courses • •Extracurricular activities • •Your future career • •Discussions with others • •Reading Výsledek obrázku pro thinking The Genre of your Research •The topic is only the basic field •Necessity of clear goals and ambitions •Added value of the research • •Possible genres: •Literature review •Policy analysis •Description •Prediction •Formulation of and testing theories Research Questions •RQ give focus, set boundaries and provide direction • •What / How / Why: •What – description, characteristics of social phenomena •Why – causes and reasons •How – explanation, change • •RQ point to data, i.e. RQ affect the data collection and analysis Research Questions •Well formulated questions help the research and vice versa • •Empirical criterion: •What data we need to answer the question? • •If RQ do not lead to certain data, there is no way to answer the questions Research Questions •Beware of normative RQ • •Is it correct to apply gender quota? •Was the election of E. Macron a good decision of French citizens? • •Normative RQ cannot be answered using empirical data • •Solution – modification of RQ (this changes also their content) • •Do French citizens think that electing E. Macron for president was a good decision? Hypotheses •Logical conjecture about the nature of relationships between two or more variables expressed in the form of a testable statement (O’Leary 2004) •Hypotheses are derived from theory • •Main elements: •Testability •Relationship between at least two variables •Expectation backed by the literature • •‘Increasing unemployment rate leads to higher local support of far right parties.’ •‘Terrorist attacks with victims increase the fear of society to a higher extent than terrorist attacks without victims.’ Hypotheses •Not a necessary part of any research • •Hypotheses are used for testing theory • •Key questions: •Does the theory suggest a relationship between variables? •Does it suggest the direction of such relationship? • •Placing hypotheses before the theory is senseless Logic of Research •Two main ways – inductive and deductive • •Inductive: •Explorative, search for patterns •Main aim is generalization and formulation of new theories • •Deductive: •Builds on previous knowledge •Main aim is to test existing theories Logic of Research Inductive Deductive Observation, data collection Theory à hypotheses Search for patterns Test of hypotheses Generalization, new theories Confirmation / rejection of theories Theory •A set of statements that collectively describe and explain a phenomenon, its causes or consequences • •These statements are at a higher level of abstraction than simple facts • •Objective - not only to describe but also to explain • •Explanation based on ‘if A then B’ logic • •Theory is nothing more than a set of causal laws and hypotheses (Van Evera) Variables •A way to store concepts from the social reality • •Elements of each variable: •Label – name / description •Values – denominations of occurrence of the variable • •Example – a variable concerning income: •Label – ‘income’ •Values – expression in a certain currency (EUR, USD, GBP etc.) Variables •Main role of research – identify and explain causal relationships between variables • •We distinguish between: •Independent (explanatory) variables – suggested cause •Dependent (outcome) variables – suggested consequence • •Higher inflation decreases probability of government to win election •Identify the variables •Which one is independent and which one is dependent? Causality •Basically what is this course all about • •Causal effect: •Change in the value of a dependent variable if the value of an independent variable changes • •Causal mechanism: •Explanation of the link between cause and effect •Clarifies the nature of the relationship between independent and dependent variables http://www.med.unc.edu/ophth/news/june-is-uv-safety-month/image http://cdn.flaticon.com/png/256/32165.png https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSrlwdnLzFD_uwHces_8K-WnASBXJBVay49ZAIyxSuHpT3 O3sdqiQ Výsledek obrázku pro photosynthesis equation Výsledek obrázku pro photosynthesis equation •Hypothesis 1: ‘More life experience leads to better career paths.’ • •What is ‘life experience’? •What is a ‘better career path’? • •Hypothesis 2: ‘Higher GDP allows countries to follow more ambitious national interests’ • •What are ‘national interests’? • Operationalization •Transformation of concepts into measurable items • •By operationalizing we define measurement of social phenomena that is hardly (or not at all) measurable directly • •Europeanization, good character, tasty food, wonderful color, right-wing extremist Compare these definitions •1. A nice person – a person who is kind and caring and who everyone likes • •2. A nice person – a person who smiles at least ten times a day and when other people are asked how they like him/her, this person receives a mean value of eight and more on a 0-10 scale • •Which of these two helps you more to identify a nice person in the real world? Operationalization •Terrorist group • •Electoral success • •Tasty food • •Popularity • •Successful exam • •Educated person Be a Researcher •Topic: Popularity of Ed Sheeran / Taylor Swift in contemporary music industry. • •Find some research questions •Formulate hypotheses (we expect that we have a theory) •Operationalize • Be a Researcher •Topic: Occurrence of violence in Europe due to COVID-19 pandemic. • •Find some research questions •Formulate hypotheses (we expect that we have a theory) •Operationalize • Some Good Rules to Follow • •1. Well set goals (and the topic) spare you time and energy • •2. Methods are not your goals, but only the tools to achieve your aims • •3. Proper reading is a must • •4. Research design and planning is essential