NEW SECURITY
CHALLENGES
L u c i e K o n e č n á
B S S b 1105 International S e c u r i t y P o l i c y
1 7 / 1 0 / 2 0 2 2
Old vs. New Security
• Barry Buzan, Ole Weaver and Jaap de Wilde - Old vs. new security
• Discussion of the concept of security in the 90s - three groups
- A) group against changing the agenda (John Mearsheimer, Stephen Walt)
- B) group supporting the partial change (Schultz, Buzan?)
- C) group supporting radical reform (Ulman, Kegley)
• Traditional/old security - primarily the military sector and military threats that
come primarily from states, regionalism
• New security - new types of security threats from non-state actors, decline of
regionalism
New topics and new referent objects
Traditional Threats - the Position of
States in the International System
The state as a person of international law should possess the following
qualifications:
- a) a permanent population;
- b ) a defined territory;
- c ) government;
- d) capacity to enter into relations with the other states
(Convention on Rights and Duties of States 1933)
Typology of states:
1. Superpowers
2. (Regional) Powers
3. „Normal" states
4. Microstates
5. Dependent states and territories
6. Failed states (https://fragilestatesindex.org/qlobal-data/)
Traditional Threats - the Position of
States in the International
System/Polarity
• Polarity expresses the number of autonomous centers of power and is a
function of the distribution of power among only the most important actors
1. Unipolarity
2. Bipolarity
3. Tripolarity
4. Multipolarity
5. Hyperpolarity (total symmetric desintegration of power)
6. „Zero-polarity" (total cooperation)
Position of States in the International
System/Alliance
Security alliance is „formal agreement between two or more actors (usually states)
to cooperate together on perceived mutual security issues. By allying
themselves together it is anticipated that security will be increased in one,
some or all of the following dimensions:
1. By joining an alliance system of deterrence will be established or strengthened;
2. By joining an alliance a defence pact will operate in the event of war;
3. By joining an alliance some or all the actors will be precluded from joining other
alliances" (Evans, Newnham 1998: 15).
Temporally - Permanent
Symmetric - Asymmetric
Single-Issue - Multi-issue
Limited - General
Efficient - Non-Efficient
Successful - Unsuccessful
Position of States in the International
System/ Balancing and
Balancing Allying with others against the prevailing threat.
Bandwagoning Alignment with the source of danger.
1. Balancing is more common than bandwagoning.
2. The stronger the state, the greater its tendency to
balance. Weak state will balance against other weak
states but may bandwagon when threatened by
great powers.
3. The greater the probability of allied support, the
greater the tendency to balance. When adequate
allied support is certain, however, the tendency for
free-riding or buck-passing increases.
4. The more unalterably aggressive a state is perceived
to be, the greater the tendency for other to balance
against it.
5. In wartime, the closer one side is to victory, the
greater the tendency for other to bandwagon with it
(Walt 2009: 102)
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for
the 21st Century
George Friedman
Russia - creation of buffer zones, confrontation with the US, internal collapse
USA - 21 st century - the American century, Islamic Jihad
control of the American continent and oceans
China - decline in economic performance - beginning
of instability
T H E N E X T
100 Y E A R S
A FORECAST FOR THE 2 1 s
' CENTURY
Conflicts - Traditional or New Threat?
Conflict vs. War
Low, medium and high intensity conflict
Civil war
Deaths i n sLale-based conflicts per 100,000,1946 Lo 2020
Civilian and military deaths in conflicts where the government of a statewas a participant on
at least one side. The data counts only direct violent deaths (i.e. excluding deaths from
disease or famine).
Our World
in Data
Civil conflicts with
foreign state
intervention
Civil conflicts
_ Conflicts between
states
_ Colonial or imperial
conflicts
1946 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: OWID based on PRIO and UCDP OurWorldlnData.org/war-and-peace • CC BY
Note: The figures shown aggregate the sources' 'best' estimates for deaths in individual conflicts, or the mid-point
between high and low estimates where no best estimate is provided.
Conflicts - Traditional or New Threat?
The bloodiest conflicts of the 21st century
| B DRC (1998-2003)
Afghanistan (2001-2014) 110 00
^ ^ ^ | Iraq (2003-2011) ^ ^ ^ | 200 000- 1,2 mil ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ |
Syria (2011 -) 500 000
^ ^ ^ | Yemen (2015 -) ^ | ^ |
Darfur (2003 -) 400 000
Nigeria -) ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ |
Somalia (1991 -) 500 000
Violent Non-State Actors (VNSA)
• Interstate, intrastate and substate/nonstate conflicts
• Types of V N S A - partisans/guerilla and insurgency, terrorist groups, warlords,
militia, paramilitary units , PSC/PMC, mercenaries, organized crime groups
• Distinctive characteristics:
- a) motivation
- b) role of violence
- c) power/teritoriality
- d) financing
- e) organizational structure
- f) relationship between VNSA and the state
- g) relationship between VNSA and population
Terrorism
Table 1. Frequencies of definitional elements in 109 definitions of terrorism
Element Frequency %
1 Violence, force 83.5
2 Political 65
3 Fear, terror emphasised 51
4 Threat 47
5 (Psychological) effects a n d (anticipaled) reactions 41.5
6 V i c t i m - target differentiation 37.5
7 Purposive, planned, s y s t e m a t i c organised action 32
M e t h o d of combat, strategy, tactic 30.5
9 Extranormahty, in breach of accepted rules, without h u m a n i t a r i a n constraints 30
10 Coercion, extortion, i n d u c t i o n of compliance 28
11 Publicity aspect 21.5
12 Arbitrariness; impersonal, r a n d o m character; indiscrimination 21
13 Civilians, noncombatants, neutrals, outsiders as victims 17.5
14 Intimidation 17
15 Innocence of victims emphasised 15.5
16 G r o u p , movement, organisation as perpetrator 14
17 Symbolic aspect, demonstration Lo others 13.5
IS lne-aieu.]ability, unpredictability, unexpectedness of occurrence of violence 9
19 Clandestine, covert nature 9
2 0 Repetiliveness; serial or c a m p a i g n character of violence 7
21 C r i m i n a l 6
22 D e m a n d s made on third parties 4
Terrorism
According to Schmid (2020)
There are many types of terrorism, the most prominent ones being:
* single- i ssue terrori sm;
* lone wolf/actor terrorism
* vigilante terrorism;
* separatist (ethno -nati onal i st) terrori s m;
* le (t- w ing terrori s m;
* right-wing terrorism;
* religious terrorism;
* cyber-terrorism;
* chemical Biological, Radiological and Nuclear ( C B R N ) terrorism;
* state (or regime) terrorism.2 3
Terrorism - Old vs. New
Old Terrorism New Terrorism
Organization Determinable Less Determinable
Form of organization Usually, [hierarchical Rather linear
Operational quality Medium professional Fully professionalized
Group strength and
recruitment potential
among followers
Small to medium-sized
recruitment circle strongly
limited
Individual or small group,
high rec. potential through
internationalization
Operational area Regionally or nationally
restricted
Operations at the
international level
Operational objectives Predictable and identifiable Hardly predictable and
identifiable
Victims and their number Selected, small numbers High number of casualties
Quantitative dimension of
the threat
Limited in relation to
consequences and effect
Increasing in relation to
consequences and effect
Motivation for intellectual
public engagement
Higli Waiiing, low
Links with organized crime Relatively small Intense connections with
organized crime, with
migrant communities and
with legal areas of commerce
Financing options Little financial options,
financing exclusively
through extortion and
kidnapping, or
"Revolutionary Tax" (ETA)
Better financial opportunities
through global capital
transfer and legal business
activities.
HIV/AID
Bushmeat theory - Cameroon.
71% of the total HIV population lives in Sub-Africa
Desmond Tutu HIV Foundation .
UNAIDS - Joint United Nations Programme on Hl\
Causes of expansion in Africa: behavioral factors,
lack of money, natural disasters and conflicts, heal
medical suspicion, circumcision?, religii
educational level, poverty.
• »15*
• 5 - IS*
• Z- 5*
L 1-2*
L 0.5 - 1 *
• D.l - D 5*
• «111*
J Unknown
Migration
Around 281 million international migrants in the world in 2020
At the end of 2021, the total number of people worldwide who were forced to flee their
homes due to conflicts, violence, fear of persecution and human rights violations was
89.3 million.
Migrant vs. refugee
Negative Impacts of Refugeeism:
- Economical impacts - influence on food prices, influence on the reduction
of wages of local residents, Influence on the rise in housing and rental
prices and direct state expenditure on refugees.
- Social impacts - internal displacement of persons, social inequalities
between refugees and local people, ethnic tension.
- Environmental impacts - increase in the slums, pollution or depletion of
water, deforestation, soil degradation.
- Political-security impacts - increase in terrorism, increase in trafficking and
crime, bilateral tensions between neighboring countries.
Migration
People forced to flee worldwide (2012 - 2022)
( i D P s | Refugees under UNHCR's mandate Refugees under UNRWA's mandate | Asylum seekers | Venezuelans displaced abroad | Latest available estimates
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2019 2020 2021 2022
Migration - Refugee Related Political
Violance
a) Attacks between sending state and refugees (The violence occurs between
refugees and government of sending state)
b) Attacks between receiving state and refugees (The violence occurs between
refugees and government of receiving state)
c) Ethnic or factual violence among refugees (The violence occurs between groups
of refugees)
d) Internal violence within receiving state (The violence occurs between refugees
and local population of receiving state)
e) Interstate war or unilateral intervention (Refugees and the government of more
than one state are involved in violence)
f) Attacks between refugees and transnational VNSA (The violence occurs between
refugees and transnational VNSA (( non-state armed groups operating across
several countries))
Migration - Refugee Related Political
Violance
Figure 4. Frequency o f refugee-re la ted political violence b y state (2003-2018)
Z a m b i a
"f'LIIL/.ILJILI
S u d a n
S o u t h S u d a n
S o u t h A f r i c a
R w a n d a
N i g e r i a
N i g e j
L i b y a
L i b t r i a
K e n y a
GJiana
E t h i o p i a
Ivor\ Com
C o n g o
D R C
C h a d
C e n t r a l A f r i c a n R e p u b l i c :
C a m e r o o n
B u r u n d i
Ft m i r .
—
mm—
—
mm
Figure 5. Frequency of refugee-related political violence in Asia by state (2003-2OJS)
Iswel/'Pflleatine
Y e m e n
Syria
Lebanon
Jordan
Enq
Pakistan
Nepal
I n d i a
Bangladesh
a 2 4 s a io 12
Source: authors'own graph, data from B B C , U N H C R , New H u m a n i t a r i a n , N Y T i m e s
[4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 S 9 10
Cybersecurity
Types of threats:
- Organized crime
- Cyber terrorism and information propaganda
- Attack on critical infrastructure
- Industrial and military espionage
- Hacking activity (in order to prove one's abilities, or politically motivated)
- Malicious activity by someone "from within the system,,
Types of means:
- Phishing
- Virus
- Worms
- Trojan Horse
- Botnet
- DOS
- Logical Timed Bomb
Cybersecurity
Top 10 countries by cybercrime density
Rank by cybercrime in 2021 * Cyber victim density 2021 vs. 2020 Victims/1M internet users 2021
1 10 100 1000
Cybersecurity
mpact of different cybercrimes
Average loss Victims Loss
Investment fraud $70,811 20.6K $1455.9 M
Confidence or romance fraud $39,345 24.3K $956 M
Online payment fraud $4,665 93.5K $436.2M
Tech support scam $14,545 23.9K S347.7M
Identity theft $5,390 51.6K $278.3M
Credit card fraud $10,328 16.8K S173M
Government impersonation $12,584 11.3K $142.6M
Spoofing $4,436 18.5K $82.2fv1
Lottery scam $11,899 6K S71.3M m
E Portion $1,539 39.4K $60.6M m
Ransomware attack $13,196 3.7K $49.2M •
Phishing $136 324K S44.2M •
Health-care related scam $12,185 0.6K $7M i
Malware attack $6,910 0.8K $5.6M i
Online harrasement $356 12.3K $4.4M i
Denial of service attack $197 1.1K S0.2M i
Thank you for your
attention