Roots of Nationalist and ethnicity populism in East Central Europe Contemporary World Politics 2022 Argument •Twist in development of ECE from diligent reformers towards Western model of neoliberal economy and liberal democracy to exemplary right-wing populism, economic nationalism and cultural conservatism (Poland and Hungary); •Today´s conservative populism is intrinsic to the historical process of national state formation in CE; •Unique set of challenges since modern national state formation, different approaches and strategies to face them - and disillusionment from inability to achieve key goals; •the Communism is not a cause of ECE contemporary problems, but it was yet another attempt to achieve the goals of national projects. • Goals of ECE •Goals: to obtain an independent nation state, become respected partner in Europe -> agency; •characteristics seen necessary (emulation of West): modern economy (developed strategic sectors of industry, urbanized, developed countryside…) and modern society (strong middle class; undivided by inequalities; high level of human capital and public services…); •Traumas and conflicts of 19th and 20th century -> forming a sequence… •independence after 1918, but the rest of goals never achieved…; •still semi-peripheral economies and after 1990 divided societies again (?); •this persisted despite uprisings, international settlements, experiments with democracy, centralized authoritarian regimes, Stalinism, reform communism, neoliberal (shock)therapy and liberal institutional reforms…(!) • • Sequence Poland • -Partition by Prussia, Austria and Russia (1795) -> Germanization (Russification); crash of insurrections (finally in 1863 – groundwork); -Forces behind independent movements: peasants, workers, national intelligentsia, catholic church; -Ethnic conflict – vs. German and Jew elites - suppressing class conflict (Polish burgeoisie weak); -1918 independence; since 1926 authoritative centrist regime of Pilsudski „Sanacja“ (1926-1935/39; extra- constitutional pol. force) (vs. nationalist „Endecja“); -After WWII: ethnic conflict finaly solved (expulsion, extermination); emancipation of peasants, workers; but lost agency - subordinated to USSR; -1990s: in order to secure independence, modernization and agency – radical reforms and integration into Western structures; -GFCs: critical revision… semi-peripheral position in European economy; together reconsidering the liberal democracy package <– not a top priority for large part of polity…; -Populism: ethno-nationalist (vs. immigration, cosmopolitanism); culturally conservative (vs. LGBT, Muslims…); Eurosceptic (vs. surendering sovereighty; Green Deal); economic nationalist (vs. dominance of foreign capital)… Sequence Hungary •Crush of national revolt 1848 –> Germanization; settlement and dualism 1867 -> idea of a leading role in Eastern Europe; •1920 – Treaty of Trianon as historical injustice; goal to regain lost territory and population; •Centrist authoritative Horty´s régime (1920-1944): base of support rural regions, church vs. secular urban class and intelligentsia; •After 1945 – industrialization and modernization; loss of agency – subordination to USSR – crash of 1956 revolt -> economic pragmatism/populism; •1990s: to secure independence and agency – integration into West (borderless Europe as de facto reintegration of „Great Hungary“); only gradual reforms -> lagging behind other CEE countries -> strong dissatisfaction; -GFCs: critical revision of semi-peripheral position in Economy (Obrán´s freedom fight); reconsidering the liberal democracy package (Christian values); nostalgia…; -Populism: ethno-nationalist (vs. immigration, cosmopolitanism,); culturally conservative (vs. LGBT, Muslims); Eurosceptic (vs. political integration; foreign financed NGOs); economic nationalist (vs. dominance of foreign capital)… • Sequence Czechia •White Mountain 1621 - protestant Bohemian revolt against HRE defeated –> Germanization and catholization…; Munich 1938… •Forces behind Czech national emancipation – peasants, workers, in late 19th. strengtening Czech capital vs. German political, economic and cultural elite; •After 1918: economic nationalism; restricted democracy with strong extra-constitutional elements (the „Five“ – ethnic basis); ethnical conflict suppressing class conflict; •After 1945: extensive industrial development; solving ethnical conflict (expulsion), empowerement of workers and peasants; •1990s: radical economic reform –> ambition to outperform other ECE and quickly close the gap to the West (moderately succesfull); •GFC: partial reconsideration of model based on foreign capital dominance…; •Populism: soft variant, ANO movement (PM Babiš) technocratic; logic of „common sense“ –> progressivist issues (Green deal, LGBT, migration…) not priority of majority of polity… Conclusions: Populism in ECE the 21th century •Rush to the West in 1990s – vital interest, but instrumental/purposeful; •to gain agency, not to surrender sovereignty to an organization they cannot control (EU); •History of ECE – strong dispositions to populism: •ethnic conflict with powerful minorities; •threats to sovereignty from foreign powers and capital; •rich experience with specific domestic solutions - centralized executive extra-constitutional regimes (+ myths of their successes: Pilsudski, Horty, CS First Republic…); •Parts of society (workers and peasants, church in POL and HUN) that were the backbone of the national project are losing ground… •Ethnically homogenous societies, gaining the control of own state after long struggle in internal and external ethnic conflicts, are not considering the protection of minorities of any kind (ethnic, religious, sexual…) the priority; •Biggest projects of the moment, Industrial transformation and the Green deal, will hit disproportionately hard industrial semi-periphery (ECE) and, within it, those less successful and flexible members of ECE societies… • • •Poland does not want to remain a net recipient of EU subsidies forever. On the contrary: we want the right to develop in a fair market, and by this right, we want to one day catch up with Germany in terms of welfare and economic power. This will not take 100 years! And then many Poles who emigrated will be able to return home. •Jarosław Kaczyński • •What is the basic principle of democracy? In the end, it is loyalty to the nation. We Central Europeans know from historical experience that sooner or later, we will lose our freedom if we do not represent the interests of our citizens. •My lesson from history is that if there is a strong moderate centrist party which can lead the country, there is no room for extremists from the right or left. •Viktor Orbán • •Bohemians, Moravians, and Silesians are an extremely inventive and creative nation. Although our country is not as big as Germany, Italy, or Poland, we are a great nation because of our talent to learn things and to be inventive. Even fifty years of suppression of freedom and creativity was not able to knock out the heritage of Baťa; we have the talent in our genes. Inventiveness, creativity, and extraordinary skills. And the Czech resilience. The power to get up again. •Andrej Babiš • Human rights and Rule of Law in Hungary •2011 new Media law: the Media Council – main regulatory body (nominated by government); •Independent media fined or obstructed; journalist and editors dismissed - critical comments towards government; •Crime to spread fake news or engage fear mongering (Covid) – many investigations; •Advertising tax – affects only independent TV channel; •Pro-government media used to target opposition, civil society, academics critical to government; •After 2014: audit of NGOs with foreign donor money, „problematic“, some criminal investigations; •During migrant crisis: public media attempting to discredit civil society as Soros foreign paid traitors. •2017: 20 thousand EUR of foreign funding to register as foreign funded and label all materials as such; •2018: constitutional amendment criminalized services, advice and support to migrants and asylum seekers; •2017 law targeting CEU -> moving to Vienna; public trust fund managing public finances for universities (appointees loyal to government); •Immigration: policy of detention of asylum seekers; fence; criminalizing irregular entry; asylum procedure extremely accelerated; use of force; government campaign; •2017: automatic detention in transit zones; •2019 banning settlement of foreign populations; in 2020 abolishing the right to sees asylum on Hungarian territory; •Constitution of 2012: discriminating minorities, does not promote gender equality; •Roma minority: violence by vigilante groups; children often enrolled to special schools; •Criminalizing homelessness; •Istanbul Convention communicated as promoting gender ideologies and illegal immigration. •Constitutional amendment: …to upbring children in accordance with the values based on homeland´s constitutional identity and Christian culture…; •Prohibited by law to promote sexual and gender diversity in Hungary; •Covid pandemic: state of emergency - government to rule by decree; many decrees were unrelated to health issues (striping funds from municipalities governed by opposition) . • • Human rights and Rule of Law in Poland •Homophobic - presidency of Lech Kaczyński: LGBT groups associated with pedophiles and narcotic trade; promotion of sexual minorities´ rights against nation´s education policy…; •Reproductive rights: lack of sexual education, limited access to contraceptives; abortion criminalized, baned completely in 2020; •Istanbul convention is often referred as harmful; there are attempts to criminalize sexuality education; •President Duda (PiS) during campaign: LGBT an ideology worse than communism; •Many municipalities in Poland declares themselves “LGBT free zones”; •2017 government controlled body in charge of distribution of funds to NGOs... •Poland strictly against EU´s reallocation quotas of immigrants; •Poland – Belarus border crisis: asylum seekers routinely denied asylum procedure; state of emergency declared - regular pushbacks by police and military. •Government intervention in the judiciary: •PiS government, canceled appointment of all five constitutional tribunal judges (elected under previous administration); •2017 judicial reform: undermined Constitutional tribunal; by reducing retirement age for Supreme court judges, forcing 27 judges to retire; •giving the minister of justice control over judicial appointees in common courts; •judges being subjects of disciplinary proceedings for criticizing judicial reforms; •compromised Constitutional tribunal ruled in 2021 that interim measures ordered by CJEU to protect independence of Polish judiciary were contrary to Polish constitution; Later that year tribunal rejected supremacy of EU law. •Freedom of media decreasing: •state owned media in presidential campaign strongly supported president Duda; •dismissals of professionals from state-owned media without reasons. •2021 law preventing non-EU shareholders form owning majority stake in Polish media –US owned TVN station licence suspended. • • In office Prime minister Parties 11/1988 – 5/1990 Miklós Németh MSZP 5/1990 - 12/1993 József Antall MDF, FkgP, KDNP 12/1993 - 7/1994 Péter Boross MDF, FkgP, KDNP 7/1994 - 7/1996 Gyula Horn MSZP, SZDSZ 7/1998 – 5/2002 Viktor Orbán Fidesz, FkgP, MDF 5/2002 – 9/2004 Péter Medgyessy (caretaker) MSZP, SZDSZ 9/2004 - 6/2006 Ferenc Gyurcsány MSZP, SZDSZ 6/2006 - 4/2009 Ferenc Gyurcsány MSZP, SZDSZ 4/2009 - 5/2010 Gordon Bajnai (caretaker) MSZP 5/2010 - 6/2014 Viktor Orbán Fidesz, KDNP 6/2014 - 5/2018 Viktor Orbán Fidesz, KDNP 5/2018 – 5/2022 Viktor Orbán Fidesz, KDNP 5/2022- Viktor Orbán Fidesz, KDNP Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) Independent smallholders, Agrarian Workers and Civic Party (FKgP) Christina Democratic People´s Party (KDNP) Aliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) Governments in Hungary In office President party In office Prime minister party 1990-1995 Lech Walesa Solidarity 1989-1991 Tadeusz Mazowiecki Solidarity 1991-1991 Krzysztof Bielecky Liberal democratic congres 1991-1992 Jan Olszewski Centre Agreement 1992-1993 Hanna Suchocka Democratic Union 1993-1995 Waldemar Pawlak Polish People´s party 1995-2005 Aleksander Kwasniewski Democratic Left Aliance 1995-1996 Józef Oleksy Social Democracy 1996-1997 Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz Social Democracy 1997-2001 Jerzy Buzek Solidarity Electoral Action 2001-2004 Leszek Miller Democratic Left Alliance 2005-2010 Lech Kaczynski Law and Justice 2005-2006 Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz Law and Justice 2006-2007 Jaroslaw Kaczynski Law and Justice 2010-2015 Bronislaw Komorowski Civic Platfrom 2007-2014 Donald Tusk Civic Platform 2014-2015 Ewa Kopacz Civic Platform 2015- Andrzej Duda Law and Justice 2015-2017 Beata Szydlo Law and Justice 2017- Mateusz Morawiecki Law and Justice Governments in Poland In office Prime minister Coalition 1992-1998 Václav Klaus ODS, KDS, ODA, KDU-ČSL 1998-2002 Miloš Zeman ČSSD 2002-2004 Vladimír Špidla ČSSD, US-DEU, KDU-ČSL 2004-2005 Stanislav Gross ČSSD, US-DEU, KDU-ČSL 2005-2006 Jiří Paroubek ČSSD, US-DEU, KDU-ČSL 2006-2009 Mirek Topolánek ODS, KDU-ČSL, SZ 2010-2013 Petr Nečas ODS, TOP 09, VV 2014-2017 Bohuslav Sobotka ČSSD, ANO, KDU-ČSL 2017-2021 Andrej Babiš ANO, ČSSD 2021- Petr Fiala ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP 09, Piráti, STAN Governments in Czechia Polls August 2022: ANO 31.1%; ODS 13.9%; SPD 13.1%; Piráti 7.2%. Civic democratic party (ODS) Liberal democrats (ODA, US-DEU, TOP 09, STAN) Christian democrats (KDU-ČSL) Social democrats (ČSSD) Technocratic populist movement (ANO)