IREn5019 No War, No Peace: Frozen Conflicts in the Caucasus Mgr. Zinaida Bechna, Ph.D. Wendsays: 10:00-11:40, U33 Office Hours: Office # 4.67, by appointment Office Phone: 549 49 6761 E-mail: bechna@fss.muni.cz 14.9.2022 The Caucasus Large mountainous zone, Small republics of the huge Soviet Union, Conflict countries from headline news. The Caucasus Karmcl ChTkt Russia KMkh Caspian Sea CtoffcMik Sukhumi* Hortn. South wall MakHachkaU Dagestan The Caucasus Ttkhlava Georgia #7*-w Armenia Yerevan" Azerbaijan N j q or no Kaiabmkh Turkey °St»pa«ak*rl 200 Kilom eters 200 Miles' The Caucasus • "The new world disorder" • 8 conflicts: N-K, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, the Prigorodniy Rayon of North Ossetia and Chechnya - hundred thousand deaths, two million six hundred thousand refugees and Internally Displaces Persons. • Ethnic based autonomous regions of Soviet era Geographical settings in the Caucasu • Northern border: Krasnodar and Stavropol Krai, Russian mainland begins. • Western border: eastern border of Ottoman empire. • Southerns border: Araxes river, Iran's northern border. • Political map: three states-Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia plus North Caucasus, part of RF. . 400, 000km2 over 20 million people. • North Caucasus and South or Trans-Caucasia (from Russian Museum of peoples • The North Caucasus: two groups • 1. indigenous Caucasian peoples, the Vainakh peoples composed of Chechens, Ingush and Tsova-Tush and Daegstani peoples composed of Avars, Lezgins, Dargins and Laks and the Abkhaz and Circassian peoples. • 2. Turkic and Iranian settlers, Ossetians and Tats. Caucasian Peoples Abfchax Circassian K.il».-irUc„ obJivt. or kray boundary Mongol ** Kalmyk The museum of people Krasnodar Black Sea Russia • SiavropoT . Maykop GherkessK Caucasian Peoples Circassian 1 I lAbkhaz 2 WM Advgn- 3 Cherte« 4 HKaba/din Georgian 5 ii.nijkv Drtrjr.-.t.ini s mm *gu 7 I 8 Oargin 9 |Lak 10 Lex gin 11 ■ Rutul Sukhumi • Indo-European Peoples •'■ nipindii 16 BHAmtennrt 17 Greek Iranian 19Hf0ise1ian 20 T«Jy*h Slavic 21 Russian Altaic Peoples luiVnr. 22 *zm Kuiaisi • Georgia Tsk Batumi M ap 3: E thnic Settlement Patterns in Armenia and Azerbaijan, 1989 Armenian |BI *ufd 1 Aiarl U Grrpt; •''V £ . I 1 Aver ] Talyi x^V- " □ Cachur X V Armenia . U s ETHNOGRAPHY Azerbaijan- The crossroad of religions • Islam both Shi'i and Ja'fari Shi'i Islam - majority of Azeris. • Sunni tradition in Dagestan. Hanafi school in Chechnya and Ingushetia, the Turkic Karachais and Balkars, the Ajars of Georgia and minority of Azeris (15-25%), minority of Ossetians (20-30%) and Abkhazians (35%). • Judaism: Georgian Jews, Tays and Mountain Jews in Azerbaijan and Dagestan. The crossroad of religions Georgia - Orthodox Christianity Languages Languages The Georgian alphabet a CO G o 6 CO rsr | lo U S3 V 1 ip [9 dj The Armenian alphabet 11 IF ISM IE THE ARMENIAN ALPHABET u in aip LT if men p P pen 3 j he <* kim 1i (i noo tan C 2 shah b b yech n n vu zah s chah t t Bi bay C I1 yet « ? chay F IO n- n rrah d & zhay u u say h V ini 4 vev L I lune s in dune 1« 1" Ml n P ray xy (> dzah 8 (J ISO M ghen h. i hune 2. h ho + pure 9 tsah f kay 1 u ghad 0 o o 6 lay a> 4> fay Changes in the Azerbaijan Alphabet Sequence in the 20th Century f- njt mt~ __~-_____ Leltn a m b —- P — t s J c Ch h kh mmmmmm d z r z zb.n ■ s —— ah s z t u z 3C 1— r .—» k _r g _r ng _r 1 m >j r n •j o m h m y. 1 tarty Lata) rfltZ3 ■ t«J* t«w - %m%_ A o b e V B B Q r r r r d A A e E e a© 3 a zh z 3 3 i — 1 1 M i —-» b>l l.i y J 1 k K K g K. K i /I n m n H M o O o o - ... (1 i • P n n r P P s C c t T T u y v V v f ct> kh X x h H h ch H «i j sh III in Early history • The advanced economy and favorable geographic and natural conditions of the area attracted the Byzantine, Persian, Mong ol, Ottoman and Russian empires. • Ancient countries of Caucasus: Armenia, Iberia, Colchis and Albania. Course goals • By the end of the semester, students will be able to identify, analyze and evaluate who were the conflict parties? What were the parties' incompatible goals, values and interests? What were the trigger events and issues at stake? How the conflicts evolved and why they have never been resolved? • The learning outcomes of the course will enable students upon completion to: • 1. Engage critically with different theories of ethnic conflicts. • 2. Obtain a broad knowledge of the conflict escalations process in the Caucasus region. • 3. Acquire insights of how political developments, socio-economic process and systemic features resulted into the outbreak of violence. • 4. Examine the nature of conflicts in the Caucasus with respect to factors that generates those conflicts and their change in time. • 5. Acquire knowledge of international engagement towards conflict settlement and establishment of democratic institutions in the Caucasus. Requirements Readings: The syllabus lists mandatory readings below. Students are responsible for completing all of these readings before every class and coming to class prepared to discuss issues indicated for every session. Required readings for the course are to be found in Study Materials folder in Information System. Policy Papers: there will be three Policy Papers during the semester. The length of the assignment should vary between 1800 and 3600 characters and should be uploaded to the IS. Each of the Policy paper will be graded between 0 and 10 points. Thus the students can obtain up to 30 points. 1. Choose one of the conflicts in the Caucasus and explain what was the major causes of this conflict? Was the conflict ethnic/political/economic/territorial/? Why? Due to: 6 November 2022. 2. Based on comparison of Russian and Western engagement in the Caucasus conflicts explain one of the questions bellow: 1. How you assess the role of the EU in Nagorno Karabakh conflict? How you assess the role of Russia in Nagorno Karabakh conflict? 2. The EU's ambition to promote peace and stability into its neighbourhood has often stumbled upon division, short terms interests of its member states, lack of assertiveness and more decisive role in conflict resolution effort. How can EU do better in Georgia? How do you access the role of Russia in separatist areas (Abkhazia and South Ossetia)? Due to 28 November 2022. 3. What could be done for conflict resolution in the Caucasus? Choose one conflict and draw at list three policy recommendation for the actors involved in a conflict. Due date: 11 December 2022. Requirements Final written test: The final written test will contain 10 open questions from the mandatory literature. You will have a maximum of 60 minutes to complete the written test and receive up to 30 points. There will be several terms of final examination in the Information System. Final Grading: The maximum is 60 points; the minimum to complete the course is 35 points. A 56-60 points B 51 - 55 points C 46 - 50 points D 41 -45 points E 36-40 points F less than 36 points. Structure □ Introduction □ A taxonomy of conflict □ Who fights? □ Why do they fight? □ Where do they fight? □ Is the world getting more or less peaceful? Introduction International violence is becoming less problematic than it was during the last century — more intrastate conflicts, than interstate struggles. • From 1989 to 1996 there were 69 armed conflicts, of which only five have been between states. Conflict trends 1950 I 960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018 Extrasystemic conflict ■ Interstate conflict Internal conflict Int. internal conflict Conflict trends 140,000- 120,000- M 100,000 v 80,000 ■D I 60,000; 40,000. 20,000 '■ 0 0> J& & _vN V \' \' Minor conflict (25+) War (1,000+) ^ oP oP> ^ N«r a? o!° o?> o> c£> c?> VN Figure I: Number of battle deaths and conflicts, 1989-2020. Source: UCDP database (ucdp.uu.se) Is the war declini NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER STEVEN PINKER THE BETTER ANGELS OF OUR NATURE WHY VIOLENCE HAS DECLINED "A Iipn aly «Banam aaak [A] imMv iiUhsm —IHI NIW YOKK TIMES BOOK B I V I E W I Is war declining? • War is declining! O The central role of the state • Monopoly of violence • Internal peace • Reduced exposure to interstate war O World Wars 1 and 2 sharply diverge from the trend © Normann Angell (1911) The Great Illusion O Key reason o Peace has become more profitable • War has not become more lethal AZAR GAK Our better angels SI I \ KN I'INkKR THE BETTER ANGELS OF OUR NATURE WHY VIOLENCE V MAS DECLINED y • Identifies the same trend. Q Explanations • The Leviathan (again!) 9 Trade and commerce (the profitability of peace again) • Feminization: increases respect for interests and values of women • Cosmopolitanism: makes it easier to identify with 'others' • Rise of reason and rationality Q Fewer people are growing up in violent societies where they are taught that violence is acceptable, a way of life Trends in conflict | Intrastate Conflicts | Internationalized Intrastate Conflicts Interstate Conflicts Extrastate Conflicts Figure 3.1 State-Based Armed Conflicts by Type, 1946-2006 Year After more than a decade of unever decline, the number of state-basec conflicts being fought around the world has levelled off. Data Sources: UCDP/PRIO; UCDP Human Security Report Pivfect Dataset Human Security Brief 2 A taxonomy of conflict □ Who fights? □ Governments Organizations □ Individuals □ Why do they fight? □ Politics? Economics? Insanity? □ Where do they fight Home or away? □ Consequences of conflict How many were killed? What is the time frame? The concept of conflict This word is derived from the Latin "con-fligo" which means strife. "Conflict is a struggle in which the aim is to gain objectives and simultaneously to neutralize, injure, or eliminate rivals". Conflict is "a social situation in which minimum of two actors (parties) strive to acquire at same moment in time an available set of scarce resources." Conflict is a situation in which "actors use conflict behavior against each other to attain incompatible goals and/or express their hostility". In general, conflict is understood in terms of aspirations of conflicting parties to achieve incompatible goals simultaneously. The concept of conflict What is "conflict behavior"? The definition suggests that conflict behavior is any behavior that helps the party to achieve its goal that is incompatible with that of the opponent or that expresses its hostility towards him. Rational action is based on careful deliberation, judgment and valuing a set of all relevant alternatives, assessing their outcomes cor reedy, evaluation in accordance with own values and then choosing the action that was the best. Contrary to that, non-rational actions are quick, impulsive and driven by emotions. The concept of conflict □ Conflict action - conflict behavior. □ If the actions of conflict party are guided by rational considerations, then we speak about conflict action. When we assume that they may be rational or non-rational, we use the term conflict "behavior." The concept of conflict "coercive" - "non-coercive" action/behavior: Coercive action forces the opponent side to what they do not wish to do, by threatening to inflict injury or by actually inflicting it. Distinguish between physical violence and symbolic injury Severe physical violence, can be violent, in sense of hurting or killing the opponents, or destroy their property. It could also have non-violent character, such as depriving opponents of resources they need. Symbolic injury, in the other hand, weakens the opponent by inducing fear, shame, or guilt. • Not all conflict actions involve coercion. The concept of conflict □ "Conflict behavior" - an umbrella term that covers many diverse types of behavior. It can involve rational or non-rational conflict actions and expressions of hostilities and a range of behavior that is highly coercive as well as to behavior that is fully cooperative. Low coer- __ civeness High ^coer- civeness "Pure" Promising Trying to Threat of Nonviolent Violent coop- a reward persuade coercion coercion coercion eration Noncoercive action Coercive action Figure 2.1. Coerciveness of Conflict Action The concept of Conflict □ Goals are incompatible when the action of one party threatens the interests of another party. □ The complexity of conflict depends whether tangible issues (like recognition, security, territory, money) are more significant than intangible aspects like symbolic meanings that shape values and ideologies, legitimizing a certain conflict behavior. The concept of conflict □ Donald Horowitz: "conflict is a struggle in which the aim is to gain objectives and simultaneously to neutralize, injure, or eliminate rivals" (Horowitz 1985: 95). □ The Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research defines conflict as "the clashing interests (political differences) on national values of some duration and magnitude between at least two parties (organized groups, states, groups of states, organization) that are determined to pursue their interests and win their cases." Towards conceptual clarity □ Peter Wallensteen: □ In order to understand and provide conflict analysis, we have to focus on three major components of the phenomenon: □ l) actors. □ 2) process (action), and □ 3) incompatibility (issues at stake). The concept of conflict □ By combining these aspects, we arrive at a most comprehensive analysis of all possible kinds of conflict, which is a "social situation in which a minimum of two actors (parties) strive to acquire at the same moment in time an available set of scarce resources" (Wallensteen 2009: 15). Typology according to actors □ (1) Extrasystemic armed conflict, which takes place between a state and a non-state group outside its own territory. In the Correlates of War (COW) project, this category is further divided into colonial wars and imperial wars; □ (2) interstate armed conflict, which occurs between two or more states; □ (3) internal armed conflict, in which the government of a state is in conflict with internal opposition groups without intervention from another state; and □ (4) internationalized internal armed conflict, when conflict occurs between the government of a state and internal groups in opposition to and with intervention from an outside state (Havard, Wilhelmsen, Gleditsch 2004:11). Typology according to actors □ Civil war—affected states are states in which "it is almost the case that significant elements of actual or potential military power exist outside the control of the central state apparatus" (Giddens 1987). □ Violence is a central feature of such a conflict and the only way to establish the authority of one or the other conflicting party. Under this condition a state uses its military power to suppress rebellions challenging its authority and legitimacy. As a result civil conflict is brutish and nasty, accompanied by killing, which is "to a great extent a matter of national pride" (Misra 2008: 45). Typology according to actors □ Emergence of new non-state actors □ Trends that have increased a range of worldwide arms trades expanded the power of multinational corporations and the growth of trans-border exchange of weapons, drugs, and people, which in turn has contributed to the formation of coalitions that have acquired the capacity to form armies. Typology according to actors □ first, between states; □ second, between a state and non-state actors outside of the state; □ third, between a state and non-state actors within a state; and □ fourth, between non-state actors taking place outside of the state. A taxonomy of conflict Interstate war Figure: Interstate war Goverment -Goverment Insurgents Insurgents Criminal organizations Criminal organizations Non-violent Organization Non-violent Organization Unorganized individuals Unorganized individuals A taxonomy of conflict Intrastate war Figure: Intrastate war Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non-violent Organization Unorganized individuals Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non-violent Organization Unorganized individuals A taxonomy of conflict One-sided violence war Figure: One-sided violence Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non-violent Organization Unorganized individuals Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non-violent Organization Unorganized individuals A taxonomy of conflict Non-state conflict Figure: Non-state conflict Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non-violent Organization Unorganized individuals Goverment ^> Insurgents Criminal organizations Non-violent Organization Unorganized individuals A taxonomy of conflict Criminal violence Figure: Criminal violence Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non-violent Organization Unorganized individuals f Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non-violent Organization Unorganized individuals Conflict typology by Process—Violence Intensity □ The COSIMO (Conflict Simulation Model) conflict categorization belongs among the most prominent classifications; it has been developed by the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK), aiming to grasp armed conflict from nonviolent, latent conflict to violent war phases. Conflict typology by Process—Violence Intensity □ Dennis Sandole (1998): □ Non-violent conflict is a manifestation of conflict processes during which one party seeks to undermine the goal-seeking capabilities of another conflicting party by non-violent means, as i.e. economic sanctions, exclusion of some groups from access to power, and so on. Conflict typology by Process—Violence Intensity According to The Uppsala Conflict Data Program: Minor armed conflicts - conflicts with more than 25 deaths but fewer than 1000 for the year and for the duration of the conflict. Intermediate armed conflicts - conflicts with more than 25 deaths and fewer than 1000 for a year, but more than 1000 for the duration of the conflict. Wars - conflicts with more than 1000 battle-related deaths in one year. Conflict typology by Process—Violence Intensity □ Hedley Bull's definition, which has guided research within the field of IR, defines war as "organized violence carried on by political units against each other" (Bull 1977: 184). □ Significant assumptions made by this definition elucidate the following aspects of war: first, it is fought by political organizations (not by any other collective actors, as for example economic corporations); second, war is organized violence with its own rules and norms; and third, war is collective, not individual (Vasquez 1993: 35). □ As the most well-known definition by famous military theorist Carl von Clausewitz claims "war is merely the continuation of policy by other means" (Clausewitz 2008). Conflict typology by Process—Violence Intensity □ The concept of war has been based on two primary criteria: (l) a certain magnitude of battle related fatalities (initially including only soldiers and military staff) and (2) the status of the conflicting actors. According to these scholars, the threshold of 1,000 battle-related deaths caused by sustainable organized armed forces differentiate war from other types of conflict (Singer, Small 1972: 8). Conflict dynamics □ Latent conflict, □ Manifestation of the conflict, □ Escalation, □ Dead-point, □ De-escalation, □ Resolution and □ Post conflict arrangement of relations (peace building). Conflict dynamics During the phase of latent conflict divergence of interests are perceived, but the actors are unwilling or unable to clearly articulate the existence of conflict. During the manifestation of the conflict at least one of the actors articulates its incompatible interests and intention to protect them at the expense of other party. □ During the escalation of the conflict both conflict parties try to achieve their goals. This phase has four sub-phases: 1. Discussion, 2. Polarization, 3. Isolation and 4. Destruction. Conflict dynamics □ Dead-point is a situation when neither conflict party is able to end conflict in his favor. □ De-escalation —decreasing the destructive power of conflict, a greater willingness to search compromise solutions. □ Resolution and post conflict arrangement, peace building restore relation between the parties, the objective is to restore cooperation and peace. Phases of violent conflict Phases of violent conflict Sustained violent conflict Outbreak of violence jjk Stalemate/ A de-escaiatioa'ceasefire Unstable peace/ latent conflict Return to unstable Stable peace peaceAatent conflict Durable peace Settlement/resolution DURATION OF CONFLICT rozen conflict Ccrrmurocato and Cormuoi dncu»huti btfMng Frozen conflict □ Michal Smentana and Jan Ludvik: "a protracted, postwar conflict process, characterized by the absence of stable peace between the opposing sides". □ Four criteria: "it must be (a) international and (b) protracted post-war, it must have (c) core unresolved issues, and it (d) lacks stable peace. □ Under influence of internal and external factors, a frozen conflict undergoes a periodical "thawing" : toward diplomatic negotiations - "peaceful thawing" or re-escalation toward use of armed force - "violent thawing". Frozen conflict Conflict Transformation => Stable Peace Thawing Peak X Conflict Thawing (Peaceful / Violent) Conflict Re-freezing Frozen Conflict Competing goals: typology of issues at stake in armed conflicts □ Academic research focuses on such aspects as religion, ideology, language, ethnicity, resources and markets, dominance, equality, and territory. □ (l) ethnic conflict, (2) conflict over political arrangements, (3) ideological, (4) economic, and (5) territorial cross-border conflict. Competing goals: typology of issues at stake in armed conflicts □ Each conflict differs on a range of dimension and may include ethnicity, religion, political, economic, and territorial aspirations. □ The question is how these dimensions interrelate in the whole process of conflict dynamics and how far each contributes to armed conflict? A typology of Internal Arme Conflict FlttUKh 1 A TYPOLOG Y ()l INTERNAL ARMED CONFLICT I hi Si mi l ncontolťd Contested Idea loHOLOGK Al Resource CoNR-icr (11 Confi.KT (3) The rule Individual LflAMRMP Bthnk Conflict (2) CONFLICT (4> Ethnic conflict □ Ethnic conflict is a conflict in which the key causes of confrontation run along ethnic lines, which involve some elements of ethnic identity, the status of ethnic groups, and the opportunity to mobilize violent confrontation. At the outset of a conflict, ethnic conflict could be identified by the observable pattern of rebel recruitment, while ethnicity by itself could be a motivation to mobilize forces. Conflict over political arrangements □ The long-term political relationship becomes increasingly conflictive and hostile when □ (1) political change is used as a tool to mobilize masses, □ (2) there are conflicting visions about the political arrangement of a state, and □ (3) incompatibility of goals rests upon a change of political regime. Ideological confrontation □ Religion can tur into armed confrontation if □ (1) the religious make-up of a state involves different religious groups, □ (2) there are conflict-prone religious structures, and □ (3) religion is a politicized issue and serves as a tool in the hands of political leaders. Economic conflict □ Economic aspects of conflict are operationalized as follows: (1) economic decline and inequality in the economic development of different regions, (2) the shadow economy (smuggling, drug trafficking, illegal trade activities), and □ (3) interest to control key economic resources. □ Irredentism is not a state-based process; it is a movement that seeks to attain the external support and territory of the group across the existing border. The goal of this group is to add territory and population into an existing state by reason of common affinities, such as ethnic, cultural, historical, or linguistic ties (Wolff 2007). □ Secession, which is a process at the end of which a population group inhabiting a defined territory within an existing state has succeeded in splittin itself and its territory off from a titular state. As a result it has established an independent state of its own (Wolff 2004). Secession is a process of political divorce and the formation of at least one new sovereign unit through a formal declaration of independence. Challenges in conflict research □ It is critically significant to think about the dialog between the conceptual and operational level of our analysis. □ The problem remains how to assess the causal impact of one factor in relation to others. One of the possible ways for establishing the relation between operationalization and measurement lies in the case-oriented view. □ The challenge for further research is to explore not only the combination of issues at stake in armed conflict, but also the correlation and causal relationships among these aspects. Conflict research Study of each conflict requires the research of: □ 1. Background of the conflict (history of mutual relations), □ 2. Type of actors, □ 3. Character and nature of involved parties, □ 4. Reasons of conflict and □ 5. Context (the role of external actor). Useful Sources in Conflict Research News databases BBC Summary of World Broadcasts (www.monitor .bbc.co.uk) □Factiva (www.factiva.com) □Open Source Center (www.opensource.gov) Keesing's Record of World Event (www.keesings.com) LexisNexis (academic.lexisnexis.com) Reports issues by specialized NGOs and IGOs □Global Witness (www.globalwitness.org) Human Rights Watch (www.hrw.org) □International Crisis Group (www.crisisgroup.org) Integrated Regional Information Network (www.irinnews.org) □ Useful Sources in Conflict Research Surveys Afrobarometer fwyyrw.afrobarometer.org) Households in Conflict Network - HiCV rwww.hinc.org) World Values Survey fwww.worldvaluessurvey.org) General country information World Development Indicators (data.worldbank.org) □UN Data (data.un.org) □The Quality of Government Institute, Goteborg University rwww.qog.pol.gu.se) □Gapminder (www.gapminder.org) Conflict data programs □Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland (www.cidcm.umd.edu) Correlated of War rwww.correlatesofwar.org) Uppsala Conflict Data Program (www.ucdp.uu.se) Literature □ Bartoš, O. J., Wehr, P. (2002): Using Conflict Theory, Cambridge University Press. □ Tesar, F. (2007): Etnické konflikty, Praha, Portal. v v □ Waisová, Šárka (2005): Řešení konfliktů v mezinárodních vztazích. Praha: Portál. □ Wallensteen, P (2007): Understanding Conflict Resolution, War, Peace and Global System, SAGE, London. □ Wolff, S. (2006): Ethnic Conflict A Global Perspective, Oxford University Press.