R E G I O N A L S E C U R I T Y Lucie Konečná BSSb 1105 International Security Policy 23/10/2023 Regional Security Region is the area of interest to many fields of science. Definition and characteristics of RS: a) "System of mutual relations between countries in the region against the threats of instability crises, armed conflicts and regional wars" (Kusztal A., 2017 - Theoretical foundations of regional security in international relations). b) Most frequently, security at the regional level is built based upon a system or an alliance operating within the defined region, and "regional security institutions are often, but not a ways, established on the basis of geographical boundaries of the region, at the interface of functional cooperation. Criteria of regional security according to Kusztal: - the military potential of states of a region and its technical and technological levels; - the condition, strategy and the size of armed forces of countries in a region; - the quality of management of a defense sector in states of a region; - the character of borders between countries of a region and of external ones (geographical and political); - political and military alliances of regional range; - the role of political elites and rationality in choosing allies within - and beyond a region Security architecture and relations among states „>Aa7 institutional system of organizing relations between states guaranteeing their security. It is based on the assumption that issues and problems related to the security of states cannot be solved individually." Cooperative security - ongoing effort to reduce the risk of war that does not target a specific state or coalition of states Collective security - states avoid the use of force in mutual relations (two principles - the obligation to resolve all disputes by peaceful means, the prohibition of the use of force in mutual relations) Collective defense - system of joint defense against external threats, i.e. against attacks by states that are not members of the organization Evolution of security studies towards regional security - Critical Security • Shift in the 90s (The first impulse - Toronto school - Strategies in Conflict: Critical Approaches to Security Studies) • Traditional security studies focused on military and state as a referent object • A shift in the definition of the referent object and threats • According to Waisova, there are two main characteristics of CSS: a) Exploring the differences between the Euro-Atlantic approach and that of Third World authors b) The concept of the individuals as a separate referent object • Mohammed Ayoob - subaltern realism • Discussion of the concept of security in the 90s - three groups - A) group against changing the agenda (John Mearsheimer, Stephen Walt) - B) group supporting the partial change (Schultz, Buzan?) - C) group supporting radical reform (Ulman, Kegley) Evolution of security studies towards regional security - Toronto School • 1994 - small conference at the York University entitled Strategies in Conflict: Critical Approaches to Security Studies • Keith Krause and Michael C. Williams - Critical Security Studies: Concepts and Cases • They began to questioning the concept of state as the main referent object - who or what is to be secured? • Set out agenda of CSS in three points: a) referent object b) security more than just a military security c) changed the way how security was studied Evolution of security studies towards regional security - Copenhagen >arry Buzan, Ole Weaver and Jaap de Wilde published book: Security: A New Framework for Analysis Old vs. new concept of security Resolves its incoherence by arguing that the social production of security is sufficiently stable to be treated objectively Concept of sectoral security - military, political, economic, societal, environmental security Concept of analytical levels/categories (international systems, international subsystems, units, subunits and individuals). Concept of regional security complexes (4 basic principles) Concept o Securitization Theory of Regional Security •GQI3piP^i^©Scurity complexes (4 basic principles): - Composed of two or more states - Geographically coherent grouping - Mutual security dependency relationship (MSDR) - MSDR deeply embedded, long term not permanent „a group of states whose major security perspectives and concerns are so intertwined that the national security issues of each cannot be adequately analyzed or addressed separately" • Lower level security complex x Higher level security complex • Bufffer zones and states Jnbetween" Copenhagen School - Regional Security Complexes Map 2. Patterns of Regional Security Post-Cold War KULI I l<-AL SECTOR Security of the Czech Republic through the lens of the Copenhagen School MILITARY SECTOR WITHDRAWAL FROM INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS AND REGIMES GLOBAL RIVALRY WEAK STATES OF GREAT POWERS AND REDISTRIBUTION OF POWER NATIONAL PROTECTIONISM COMPETITION OF REGIOtlAL POWERS IMPACT ACTIVITIES (RUSSIA, CHINA) DECREASE TURKEY'S ASSEKTIVENESS IN THE LEGITIMACY EROSION OF THE OF NATIONAL TRANSATLANTIC GOVERNMENTS B 0 | ) [ } AUTHORITARIAN TENDENCIES CONFLICT NAGORNO-KARABAKH RADICALISM POPULISM SOCIETAL SECTOR CONFLICT 111 SYRIA INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN AFGHANISTAN CONFLICT COMPETITIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA At ID U CONFLICT IN LIBYA COMPETITION BETWEEN NATIONAL AND EUROPEAN IDENTITIES DISINFORMATION BRExrr WEAKENING OF THE EU POSITION TRADE WAR (US-CHINA) ECONOMIC OUTPUT DECLINE ENVIRONMENTAL SECTOR ECONOMIC SECTOR Security Dimensions Geographical dimension Danger dimension Su bstan sive d i mensi on Refere n ce d imensio n . 2.1 Dimensions of security. {Source: DAASE 2013: 13) Regional Security Threats • The most prominent regional threats According to Eichler (2009): a) Military threats - regional conflicts, WMD proliferation and armed aggression b) Political threats - terrorism and organized crime, existence of dangerous dictatorial regimes, human rights violations and threats to internal politics by superpowers (NATO, USA, etc.). c) Economic threats - instability of world markets, uneven economic development and economic crisis. d) Ecological threats - changes in land and sea use; direct exploitation of natural resources; climate change; pollution and invasive species. Regional Security Threats - WMD NPT 1968 - the NPT non-nuclearweapon states agree never to acquire nuclear weapons and the NPT nuclearweapon states in exchange agree to share the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology and to pursue nuclear disarmament aimed at the ultimate elimination of their nuclear arsenals. 2023 ESTIMATED GLOBAL NUCLEAR WARHEAD INVENTORIES The world's nuclear-armed states possess a combined total of over 12,500 nuclear warheads; nearly 90% belong to Russia and the United States. Approximately 9,600 warheads are in military service, with the rest awaiting dismantlement. Source: Hans M Krister sen Mart Korda, Eliana Reynolds, and tCate Kohn, federation of American Scientis' US. Department of State, and the Stocfrtiolm International Peace Researdi Institute. Updated: June2023 Arms Control Association Regional Security Threats - Conflicts • An armed conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year. • Conflict: clash between two actors who have incompatible interests. • Necessary features of conflict according to Holsti (1991): a) Actors of the conflict b) Area of the clash (incompatibility) c) Tension d) Conflict behavior • Conflict vs. War vs. Civil war Regional Security Threats - Conflicts I The W o r l d at W a r in 2023 Countries in which armed clashes between state forces and/or rebels were reported in 2023* African conflicts to watch in 2022 Fresh approaches needed to avoid disaster in worst-affected countries Conditions not conducive to elections ^ Mercei Cameroon Anglophone crisis led to insurgency Military solutions arefailing Central African Republic Dialogue stymied by ongoing clashes New approach to peace essential South Sudan Last year to implement 2018 peace deal Political and communit clashes persist Ethiopia Negotiated settlement a priority AU mediation nol: showing results Mozambique Kwanaan ana i a l j l troops battling an insurgency Developmental response and regional links key * As of April 28 Source: The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project ©®© štatista 5 A R M E D C O N F L I C T S BY N U M B E R OF E S T I M A T E D C O N F L I C T - R E L A T E D D E A T H S , 2022 1 Major armed conflicts with 10 000 or more conflict-related deaths in 2022. High-intensity armed conflicts with 1000 to 9999 conflict-related deaths in 2022. Low-intensity armed conflicts with 25 to 999 conflict-related deaths in 2022. Note: The boundaries used in this map do not imply any endorsement or acceptance by SIPRI. Regional Security Threats - Terrorism 1 ^> jfc*. 4 s 2023 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX MEASURING THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM VERY HIGH HIGH MEDIUM LOW VERY LOW NOIMPAC Regional Security Threats - Terrorism RANK RANK COUNTRY SCORE CHANGE 1 1ft Afghanistan 8.822 2 -> IfiOriiiP I S L A M I C S T A T E DATE 4/3/22 . G R O U P K H O R A S A N P R O V I N C E A suicide bombing killed at least 56 people and injured over 190 others in an attack on a Shia mosque. Islamic State - Khorasan Province (ISK) claimed responsibility. * 9 C O U N T R Y A F G H A N I S T A N | PROVINCE K A B U L P R O V I N C E D E A T H S 50 A bomb killed more than 50 civilians and wounded an unspecified number Pr others at a mosque. No- individual or group had claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing, but based on the target, tactic, and location. Islamic State - khorasan Province (ISK) was probably responsible. n a T F T a r J f t i r - K ' - i F I S L A M I C S T A T E - 29/4/22 : G R O U P K H O R A S A N P R O V I N C E A bomb killed more than 50 civilians and wounded an unspecified number Pr others at a mosque. No- individual or group had claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing, but based on the target, tactic, and location. Islamic State - khorasan Province (ISK) was probably responsible. 1 0 C O U N T R Y A F G H A N I S T A N PROVINCE B A L K H P R O V I N C E D E A T H S 50 A bomb killed 50 civilians and wounded at least 100 more in an attack on a mosque during prayers. Islamic State - Khorasan province (ISK) claimed responsibility. • A T E 21/4/22 | G R O U P J^RS ™ 0 V . N C E A bomb killed 50 civilians and wounded at least 100 more in an attack on a mosque during prayers. Islamic State - Khorasan province (ISK) claimed responsibility. Regional Security Threats - Terrorism TABLE 12 Ten countries most impacted by terrorism, ranked by GTI score Afghanistan had the highest impact of terrorism for trie fourth consecutive year. C o u n t r y 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201Ö 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Dragonfly TernorismTracker; IEP calculations Regional Security Threats - Terrorism Rank ORGANISATION DEATHS ATTACKS INJURED 1 Islamic State (IS) 1045 410 644 2 Al-Shabaab 734 315 1016 3 Islamic State - Khorasan Province (ISK) 498 141 S32 Jama at Nusrat A1-Is lam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) 279 77 215 ealochistan Liberation Army (BLAJ 233 30 113 a Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) 219 65 113 T Goko Ha ram 204 64 51 S Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) 137 90 167 9 Islamic State - Sinai Province 71 27 32 10 Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOE) 57 40 16 Regional Security Threats - Global Organized Crime Index FIGURE 1.1 Criminality indicators Criminal Actors A CAT. Mafia-style groups A CA2. Criminal networks A CA3. State-embedded actors A CA4. Foreign actors Criminal Markets • CMl. Human trafficking • CM2, Human smuggling • CM J. Arms trafficking • CM4. Flora crimes •*» CMS. Fauna crimes •*> CM6. Non-renewable resource crimes • CM7. Heroin trade CM8. Cocaine trade • CMS. Cannabis trade • CM10. Synthetic drug trade Scoring thresholds - criminality 1 2 3 4 5 DNON-EXISTENT TO LITTLE INFLUENCE MODERATE INFLUENCE FIGURE 2.4 Criminality by continent 10 9 E 7 5 . 3 0 5.17 5.06 4 . 4 8 4 , 8 7 4 . 4 8 3.07 GJofraŕ crřmžnarřry average Regional Security Threats - Dictatorial regimes The Economist Intelligence Unit's 2020 Democracy Index 167 countries scored on a scale of 0 to 10 based on 60 indicators Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit Regional Organisations • „Regional institutions are the regimes or formal organizations with membership limited to a specific geographical region or possibly two or more neighboring regions." • Three types of regional organizations according to Kusztal : - Multi-tasking organizations - Organizations with economic profile - Defensive alliances m Regional organisations vs. regimes m „International organizations are generally seen to be more formally specified institutions, with a secretariat, permanent office, and the like. International regimes have been defined as sets of principles, norms, rules, and decisions upon which actors' expectations converge (Krasner 1983)." m Security organisations: - Cooperative security - Collective security - Collective defense Regional organizations with security functions Africa African Union (AU) 2ÜÜ1 Common Market for Eastern and 1994 Southern Africa (COMESA) Community of Sahel-Saharan 1998 States (CEN-SAD) East African Community (EAC) 1999 Economic and Monetary 199K Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) Economic Community of West 1975 African States (ECOWAS) Intergovernmental Authority on 1996 Development (IGAD) Mano River Union 1973 Southern African Development 1992 Community (SADC) Middle East Arab League 1945 Arab Maghreb Union 19S9 Council of Arab Economic Unity 1964 Gulf Cooperation Council ( G C Q 1981 Organization of the Islamic 1971 Conference (OlC) Asia Australia, New Zealand, United 1951 States (ANZUS) Security Treaty Asia-Pacific Economic 19JW Cooperation (APEC) Association of South East Asian 1967 Nations (ASEAN): ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) 1994 ASEAN Plus Three (APT) 1997 Conference on Interaction and 1992 Confidence-building measures inAsia(CICA) Economic Cooperation 19S5 Organization (ECO) Pacific Community 1947 Pacific Islands Forum 1971 Shanghai Cooperation 2001 Organization (SCO) South Asian Association for 19S5 Regional Co-operation (SAARC) Regional organizations with security functionsEurope and Euro-Atlantic Arctic Council 1996 Baltic Council 1993 Barents Euro-Arctic Council 1993 (BEAC) Organization of the Black Sea 1992 Economic Cooperation (BSEC) Central European Initiative (CE1) 1989 Collective Security Treaty 2003 Organization ( C S T Ö ) Commonwealth of Independent 1991 States (CIS) Council of the Baltic Sea States 1992 (CBSS) Council of Europe 1949 European Union (EU) 1951 North Atlantic Treaty 1949 Organization: Euro-Atlantic Partnership 1997 Council (EAPCf Nordic Council 1952 Organization for Security and 1973 Co-operation in Europe: Stability Pact tor South Eastern 1999 Europe Southeast European Cooperative 1996 Initiative (SECT) Visegrad Group (V4) 1991 Western European Union (WEU) 1954 Americas Andean Community of Nations 1969 (Andean Pact) Caribbean Community 1973 (CARICOM) Centra] American Integration 199] System (SICA) Latin American Integration 1980 Association (LAIA) MERCOSUR (Southern Common 1991 Market) North American Free Trade 1994 Agreement (NAFTA) 0 rganization of A merican 1948 States (OAS) Rio Group 1987 Regional Organisations/Regimes Arab League . - Cairo 1945, 22 member states / \ S I 9 - „ofravi/ c/oser #7e relations between member states and co-ordinate collaboration between them" - Council of the Arab League, Joint Defense Council, General Secretariat (Secretary General), Economic Council Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS) - 1951 trilateral agreement - New Zealand was suspended from ANZUS 1986-2007 - AUKU S - Trilateral Security Partnership Between Australia, U.K. and U.S. Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) - 1961 - Association of Southeast Asia (ASA), 1967 ASEAN Declaration, 10 member states - ASEAN's primary objectives are: "(1) to accelerate economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region and (2) to promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law in the relationship among countries in the region and adherence to the principles of the United Nations Charter.,, ASEAN Structure ASEAN SUMMIT ASEAN Coordination Council i—I I OJ m C • •c < LU Reporting Line Coordination Line ' C TO V o. Ol I E E o (j T ' i ASEAN Political Securrty Community Council ASEAN Economic Community Council ASEAN Socio-Cultural CommujnityCouncil ASEAN Foreign Ministers VI e e tin; JZ 6 ASEAN Sectoral Body 14 ASEAN Sectoral Body IAI 4r ASEAN Foundation Senior Officials Sectoral Meeting 17 ASEAN Sectoral Body Senior Officials Sectoral Meeting Senior Officials Sectoral Meeting [P n) nj s 01 VI 2 ér Regional Organisations - Africa Africa Union (AU) - 1963 Organization of African Unity (OAU), 2002 -AU, 55 member states - Main administrative capital of the African Union is in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - Multiple goals: Accelerate the political and socio-economic integration of the continent; Promote and defend African common positions on issues of interest to the continent and its peoples; Encourage international cooperation, etc. South African Development Community (SADC) - Southern African Development Coordination Conference transformed into SADC in 1992 - Gaborone, Botswana, 16 member states - „to achieve economic development, peace and security, and growth, alleviate poverty, enhance the standard and quality of life of the peoples of Southern Africa, and support the socially disadvantaged through Regional Integration." Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) - 1975, 15 member states, Abuja Nigeria - „The aim of the Community is to promote co-operation and integration, leading to the establishment of an economic union in West Africa in order to raise the living standards of its peoples, and to maintain and enhance economic stability, foster relations-among Member States and contribute to the progress and development of (he African continent." - The Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) was a West African multilateral armed force established by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). 1990-2005. The Institutional Structure of the African Union AU Structure Legislative Judicial Executive 2003- 2004, African Union Mission in Burundi (AMIB) 2004- 2007, African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) 2007-2021, United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) 2007-2021, African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) 2022-Ongoing, African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) 2008, 2008 invasion of Anjouan, also known as Operation Democracy in Comoros. 2011-2018, Fight against the Lord's Resistance Army insurgency through the African Unionled Regional Task Force in Uganda, South Sudan and the CAR, 2013-Ongoing, African-led International Support Mission to Mali (AFISMA), organized by ECOWAS. 2013-Ongoing, African-led International Support Mission to the Central African Republic (MISCA) Court of Justice Africa Court of Human & People's Rights Executive Council Peace & Security Council Specialized technical committees I I I Commissioi Financial institutions Permanent Representativ Economic, Soc & Cultural Council Adapted from ISS 2020 Regional Organisations/Regimes - America and Europe Organisation of American States (OAS) - 1948 - Washington D. C, 35 member states - Jhe premier regional forum for political discussion, policy analysis and decision-making in Western Hemisphere affairs. The OAS brings together leaders from nations across the Americas to address hemispheric issues and opportunities." North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) x Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada (USMCA) - 1994, agreement signed by Canada, Mexico, and the United States that created a trilateral trade bloc in North America - 2020 - free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the United States Visegrad Group (V4) - 1991, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary - To advance co-operation in military, economic, cultural and energy affairs - International Visegrad Fund, Non-institutionalized, regular meeting of top executives (Presidency lasts one year) T h a n k y o u for y o u r a t t e n t i o n