12/10/2023
Map 2. Patterns of Regional Security Post-Cold War
Eritrea
^ A s m a r a
^ d d i s A b a b a
Ethiopia
Djjftputi
Somalilan
T^f H a r g e i s a
Somalia
a Kenya
Rwanda
Burundi Seychelles
E a s t A f r i c a
Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya,
Somalia, Djibouti.
Great Lakes Region:
Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda,
Tanzania, DRC, Malawi?
Madagascar
Facts about EA
Around 196 million inhabitants
Geography - African Great Lakes - Victoria and Tanganyika, Mount Kilimanjaro
(4,900 metres), high concentrations of wild animals (big five), Rwenzoris,
Eastern Rift mountains and Ethiopian Highlands.
Africa map of Koppen climate classification
FSI (FFP) - Somalia (1st
), Djibouti (45th
), Eritrea (19th
)
Kenya (35th
) Ethiopia (11th
)
Full democracy
** 1
• 9.0-10.0
• S.0 - 9.0
Flawed democracy
• 7.0 - 8.0
5.0-7.0
Hybrid regime
5 . 0 - 6 0
4.0 - 5.0
Authoritarian regime
I 3.0 - 4.0
2 0 3C
• 0 - 2.0
No data
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit.
• Equatorial climate (Af)
• Monsoon climate (Am)
• Tropical savanna climate (Aw)
•Warm desert climate (BWh)
• C o l d desert climate (BWk)
•Warm semi-arid climate (BSh)
• C o l d semi-arid climate (BSk)
•Warm mediterranean climate (Caa)
Temperate mediterranean climate (Cab)
Humid subtropical climate {Cwa)
• Humid subtropical climate/
Subtropical oceanic highland climate (Cwb)
Warm oceanic climate/
Humid subtropical climate (Cfa)
•Temperate oceanic climate (Cfb)
Overlapping Effects of Autocracy and Conflict in Africa
(MWOABCVl MAURITIUS
Source: Data ŕrom Freedom House
C ATS VEHliE
MAURITANIA
SI E P HA L3IMŮIHI
CŮTE TŮŮO
1 1 N
N||
rQi.iTQmii ňuihri
AlME PRI\OIP£
Conflict
0 Intense
0 Serious
L Sporadic
c AM E iranv
Source: Data From Center For Systemic Peace
AFRICA CENTER
FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Form of Government
| | presidential republics, lull
presidential system
| presidential republics, executive
presidency linked to a parliament
| presidential republics: semipresidential
system
| parliamentary republics
| | parliamentary constitutional
monarchies in which the monarch d
not personally exercise power
| | absolute monarchies
Somalia
17 mil inhabitants, Sunni Muslim (Islam)
Independence 1960
Ogaden war 1977-1978
The fall of the Barre regime
and the beginning of the Civil War 1991
The Islamic Courts Union - Al-Shabaab
SOMALIA ERITREA YEMEN
SUDAN
Gulf of Aden
Hardio
E T H I O P I A
Addis Ababa
r
o
0<
UGANDA
Kampala
O
»400 k m
•250 miles
DJIBOUTI BoidSO
O Djibouti City „ •
Engavo »
Borama »Bert>era° PUNTLAND
* oBurao *Gardo
• SOAAALILAND
DcMirl
'Eil
«Cakaiü
• Qbbia
Dolo
KENYA
• Bclet HuOn
Mandera*" «Lu^h
Garland * Giohar
Liboi«
"'Mogadishu
'rVLerca
* Gel ií:
O C Ľ . \ N
ĽquaLoi
Nairobi
•Kisimayo (ChiamaJo)
H.ijimi Islands
Ethiopia
120 mil inhabitants, Ethiopian Orthodox 43.8%, Muslim 31.3%, Protestant
22.8%
Oromo 34.4%, Amhara 27%, Somali 6.2%, Tigray (Tigrinya) 6.1%
Ethiopian-Italian War (1935-36), occupation of Italy until 1941
The overthrow of the emperor, the new regime 1974
Ogaden war 1977-1978
Civil War 1974-1991
/ ! _ . . _ / n r n n i j \ i ~r: .
EPRDF - Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), Amhara Democratic Party
(ADP)Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic IV
People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
Ogaden National Liberation Front
Oromo Liberation Front
Eritrean-Ethiopian War 1998-2000
Tigrayan People's Liberation Front
(Conflict 2020-2022)
Religious, tribal
and administrative
boundaries i
M a j o r i t y
Over 95 %
70 - 79,9 %
60 - 69,9 %
Kenya
• 53 mil inhabitants, Christian 85.5%, Muslim 10.9%
• Mau Mau rebellion, 1963 Independence
Eritrea
4 mil inhabitants, Christians 50%, Sunni Muslim 48%
Ethiopian-Eritrean Federation 1952
Independence 1993
Conflicts with neighboring states
There have never been national elections in Eritrea since independence in 1993
People's Front for Democracy and Justice
(PFDJ), Isaias Afewerki
Eritrean-Ethiopian War 1998-2000/2018
©1997 MAGELLAN Gaographix?"
(BOB) E85-31 DO www.maps.eom
Djibouti
1 mil inhabitants, Sunni Muslim 94%, Christian 6% (mainly foreign-born
residents)
Somali (Issa) 60%, Afar 35%, other 5% (mostly Yemeni Arab, also French,
Ethiopian, and Italian)
Independence 1977
Civil War 1991-1994, People's Rally for Progress x From
Unity and Democracy (FRUD) y e r i t r e a
\
Ismail OmarGuelleh 1999-2023
Red Sea
ETHIOPIA
'•Balho
Lake
Assalty
'Yoboki
Khör'AngarV
DJIBOUTI
Obock
T a d j o u r a . ^ ^
Terrorism in East Africa
Jabha East Africa/Islamic State in East Africa
Al-Shabaab
Ansar al-Sunna
Eritrean Islamic Jihad (EIJ) /Eritrean Islamic Salvation Movement
Ginbot 7, Ogaden National Liberation Front, Oromo Liberation Front (end in
2018) Al-Shabaab Maintains Its Hold in Somalia
Territorial control as of December 2021
RANK
RANK COUNTRY SCORE CHANGE
1 9 Afghanistan 3.622
2 0 Burkina Faso 3.564 t 2
3 4 Somalia 3.463 4 - *
4 • Mali 3.412 13
E • Syria 6.161 11
S 0 Pakistan 3.1 SO t 'i
7 9 Iraq 3.139 15
8 9 Nigeria 3.065 13
9 0 Myanmar (Burma) 7.9177 11
10 9 Niger 7.616 12
11 6 Cameroon 7.347 11
K 9 Müzambique 7.330 H
13 9 India 7.175
14
^ Democratic Republic
of the Congo 6.872 12
15 4 Colombia S.697 11
16 • Egypt 6.632 11
17 • Chile 6.619 11
18 # Philippines 6.328 11
19 • Chad 6.1 SS +-»
20 9 Kenya 6.163 4 - »
21 9 Iran 5.688 15
22 # Yemen 5.616 11
23 W Türkiye 5.600 *-»
24 9 Indonesia 5.502 4 - »
25 t Israel 5.489 1 5
26 0 Thailand 5.430 14
27 # Togo 4.915 t 49
2B # Benin 4.340 1 23
TERRORISM
Deadliest Groups of 2022
Rank ORGANISATION DEATHS ATTACKS INJURED
1 Islamic State (IS) 1045 410 644
2 Al-Shabaab 784 315 1016
3 Islamic State - Khorasan Province (ISK) 498 141 832
I Jamaat Nusiat Al-lslam wal Mushmeen (JNIM) 279 77 215
5 Balochistan Liberation Army (BLAJ 233 30 113
6 Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) 219 65 118
7 Boko Ha ram 204 64 51
3 Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (HP) 137 90 IS?
9 Islamic State - Sinai Province 71 27 32
10 Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOEJ 57 40 16
Piracy in Horn of Africa
Gulf of Aden, Guardafui Channel and Somali Sea.
Civil war in Somalia - illegally fishing on the Somali seaboard and ships began
dumping industrial.
Most of the attacks in the Horn of Africa took place outside territorial waters.
Expiry of the United Nations Security Council's (UNSC) counter-piracy
Resolution 2608 (2022).
IGAD - Intergovernmental Authority on Development - CEWARN.
Djibouti Code of Conduct 2009.
S i
• Piracy attacks
S i 0 500 1000 Km
1 1 1
Somali pirate attacks, 2008-2018
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
MecTiterranSÍi TO,ft .
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Pirate ship sunk - i
Y E M E N J L / G u f / o r
Aden
S O M A L I A "
ETHIOPIA DEyl
HarardhereD
Hadiboh
M o g a d i s h u ^ •
KENYA
indián
Ocean
M o m b a s a D
r
I M ) I A \ c)c:i-:,vs
I Source: European Naval Force • • H
SOCOTEU Higghler
MorniULlns T A N Z A N I A
kilometres
Sirius Star
hijacked
Source: 1MB piracy centre. Jan-Hov OS
Djibouti Code of Conduct
Piracy
EAST AFRICA EAST AFRICA EAST AFRICA
PIRACY/ROBBERY INCIDENTS
BY LOCATION (2017)
[24] International
[22] Territorial
[S] Unknown
PIRACY/ROBBERY INCIDENTS
BY VESSEL TYPE {2017}
• [25] Merchant Vessel
• [11] Tanker
• [4] Bulk Carrier
[3] Container
H [3] Fishing Vessel
• [2] Dhow
[4] Other
[2] Unknown
PIRACY/ROBBERY INCIDENTS
INVOLVING WEAPONS (2017)
[32] Unarmed
[9] Guns
[9] Armed, Unspecified
[3] Heavy Weapons/RPG
[1] Knives
I Piracy
@ l M B _ P i r a c y
Operation Atalanta and Ocean Shield
• Other Operations in EA - Combined Task Force 150, Combined Task Force 151,
Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy participation, Operation Copper.
• Operation Atalanta, formally European Union Naval Force (EU NAVFOR)
Somalia (2008-present).
• Atalanta tasks:
•Protects vessels of the World Food Programme (WFP), African Union Mission in
Somalia (AMISOM) and other vulnerable shipping;
•Deters and disrupts piracy and armed robbery at sea;
•Monitors fishing activities off the coast of Somalia;
•Supports other EU missions and international organizations working to strengthen
maritime security and capacity in the region.
• Operation Ocean Shield (2009-2016).
East and Horn of
Africa and the
Great Lakes
S D . I L I L - ' I I Africa
West and Central
Africa
Refugees 4 . 7 1 7 . 4 7 0 733,247 1.433,350
People fn refugee-like
situations1 Total
refugees and
people in refugee-like
situations 4 . 7 1 7 . 4 7 0 7S3.247 1.438.350
Asylum seekers2
1 9 5 , 7 5 3 2E9,054 5 7 , 6 6 4
Returned refugees* 3 4 2 . 1 9 3 9 W 4 6 , 7 7 5
IDPs of concern to
UNHCR4
1 1 , 6 5 5 7 5 9 52S7.219 7 . 2 7 0 , 5 2 0
Returned IDPsh
2 , 0 9 5 . 3 5 7 1.041.353 7 0 6 , 5 0 7
Stateless persons6 1 0 3 , 2 8 1 - 9 3 1 . 2 3 1
Others of concern to
UNHCR' 2 3 , 3 3 9 3 5 . 5 2 0 153.E3E
Venezuelans displaced
abroad" - - TOTAL
1 9 . 1 6 4 , 6 6 7 8 . 4 3 8 , 3 1 3 1 0 , 6 5 9 , 9 3 5
• Refugees
• Asylum-seekers
• Internally displaced people (IDP:
Stateless persons
• Returnees (refugees and IDPs)
Others of concern
• Venezuelans displaced abroad
INFLUX OF REFUGEES
Influx of Refugees
• Host country - Uganda (1,4 mil), Sudan (1,1 mil), Ethiopia (850
thousand),Kenya (600 thousand), Tanzania (250 thousand)
C H A R T i I P L A N N I N G F I G U R E S : 102.6 million people of concern in 2 0 2 2
PLANNING FIGURES
Unit: million
Influx of Refugees
SOUTH SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
reran™
UGANDA
KENYA
NAIROBI
TANZANIA
MOME
883,546
Registered Refugees
and Asylum-seekers
243,410
Households
7 3 , 0 7 8
\B.6%
73.078 t Mir IM.> iffuyt- M prtvkHriry _
r e g u t e i e d as living i n « m p s h*ve
• - • : ! - . ! In urban i . r-i •.
c o n f i r m e d figure r * p m * n t t i
•:-!•- ' • i > -1 8.000 r c f u g w , foltowI
ing t h e conclusion o f 3 compcehenwvr
tmilcMlen POTOJC. TW I I.W.I lf|> HIP »I l»HJ I »»VJ<I" ontf [•» •wif <ii Tin iimi i». I.IJTI.MJIIIIIMIHIIH «IIiif>m I 6
1 Countries of origin 1 1 Refugees per location 1
Total refugees and
asylum-seekers
Total refugees and
asylum-seekers
£ QLiTf" SLDAK
OftCOMOD ^ ^ rr.
Buftuhu I n JIB""
1,450,317
•
SOMALIA | r .
ftWAKDA | i %
OTHERS | r »
OMIOIttQ» J 31
SOUTH SUDAN
2 3 3 , 9 5 9 1 2 2 2 8 6
5.562 ...
-..,p,.''
S8.029
•vi
K ' " 5 4 . 5 3 0
215,736 ' A
" H ~ .1
- < ?-/KVDEMOCRAT
C
REPUBLIC
OF THE CONGO
'- -y\ I i ' — v i ^ - » . n
_ i » S » Ä » Q
— ^ 7 5 j s i 2 j — „ ^ ; r » r , . ' - -
'^.'•V^/
' A UNITED
•-'•-Af , / REPUBLIC OF
A TANZANIA
LEGEND
Saue« nu>M«rr«MlH
Negative
Impacts of
Refugeeism
Economical impacts - influence on food prices,
influence on the reduction of wages of local residents,
Influence on the rise in housing and rental prices and
direct state expenditure on refugees.
Social impacts - internal displacement of persons,
social inequalities between refugees and local
people, ethnic tension.
Environmental impacts - increase in the slums,
pollution or depletion of water, deforestation, soil
degradation.
Political-security impacts - increase in terrorism,
increase in trafficking and crime, bilateral tensions
between neighboring countries.
a) Attacks between sending state and refugees (The
violence occurs between refugees and government of sending
state)
Refugee-
Related
Political
Violence
b) Attacks between receiving state and refugees (The
violence occurs between refugees and government of
receiving state)
c) Ethnic or factual violence among refugees (The violence
occurs between groups of refugees)
d) Internal violence within receiving state (The violence
occurs between refugees and local population of receiving
state)
e) Interstate war or unilateral intervention (Refugees and
the government of more than one state are involved in
violence)
f) Attacks between refugees and transnational VNSA (The
violence occurs between refugees and transnational VNSA ((
non-state armed groups operating across several countries))
Refugee-Related Political Violence
Zambia
Uganda
Tanzania
Sudan
South Sudan
South Africa
Rwanda
Nigeria
Niger
Libya
Liberia
Kenya
Ghana
Ethiopia
Ivory Coast
Congo
DRC
Chad
Central African Republic
Cameroon
Burundi
Benin
16
14
12
10
9 10 2003-2007 2008-2012 2013-2018
A B " C " D " E " F
Thank you for your
attention